Printable View
Was just thinking of weird scenarios and came up with this hand....and I'm not sure how to play it.
First hand of game Stakes $11 SnG on Stars, blinds 10/20 - no reads. You are dealt AKo in late position but not the button.
SB/BB posts the blinds.
UTG folds.
UTG+1 raises 80.
MP1 re-raises to 240.
1 fold.
MP3 calls 240.
Hero: ???
Too nitty/leak to throw away AK here with the given action? I have no idea whether a call, fold, or push is correct here. What is your move and why?
i fold. We have UTG raiser, a mp reraiser which usually means JJ+ AQs+ AK, and a MP3 calling a raise and a reraise. While im not too worried about him, he still likely has a pp lower than QQ or AQish i beleive.
Say we reraise anyway, MP1 is likely going to play with us, utg might be strong enough to reraise, mp3 might call again and we really dont want that kind of action.
Saw we call, utg can reraise, but he likely just calls or folds. Then we're playing AK vs 3 other opponents for 20% of our stack, and since those chips are crazy important this is probably a bad way to go.
But if we fold, it is likely that one or two of these opponents is knocked out, increasing our equity while increasing the winners equity by only about 15%, where had he lost he drops to 0%.
+1 well said...this is a pretty easy fold IMO.....Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
I would make a squeeze play here against random people.. you're only afraid of AA,KK because there will probably be too many dead chips in the pot..
If the re-raiser was a regular, easy fold as I believe regs don't re-raise loose this early..
A squeeze play here..thats seems way to agg for this situation not to mention spewy.......seriously look at all the action in front of you....that seems like an early exist play to me...Quote:
Originally Posted by mukaka
I would probably fold.
Good feedback. I instant fold this with this action but just wanted to check what you guys thought about it.
Imo, fold > push > call. I don't like calling for 1/6 my stack and playing a bloated hit or miss pot and a push is definitely getting called by someone and you are flipping at best.
Thanks.
I agree with this, I shove over unless the re-raiser is a regular. The cold call by MP3 makes all the difference to me. Donks will re-raise with all kinds of crap that we're either flipping against (with lots of dead chips) or dominate. Plus there is a chance, albeit small, that everybody folds and we take the dead chips without a fight.Quote:
Originally Posted by mukaka
I can't believe all the votes for fold in this spot. If MP3 had shoved over, I would definitely fold - but I think folding is missing value here.
Interesting hand for sure. Lets say we replace AKo with JJ. Is this the same play, fold?
I'm leaning towards a shove if this is in the $6-$11 range. If this is a $16+ I'm thinking fold. Yeah theres a chance of flipping with lots of dead money in there, but what makes me want to fold is the position of the raiser and 3bettor. A UTG+1 raise by itself is pretty strong...then the player directly to the left 3bets.
Change the situation around and it becomes a clear shove imo. Say the original raiser is the CO and button is the 3bettor. Your in the SB with AK/JJ
I would fold JJ but shove over with AK. Reasons:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sakuraba
1. With AK, we are only fearing AA and KK, whilst with JJ we are fearing QQ as well (which is squarely within MP1's potential 3-bet range)
2. Given we have one ace and one king with AK, there are less combinations of AA and KK out there than there would be if we had JJ.
I would fold both AK and JJ in this spot, with UTG+1 raise and a reraise AA/KK is a very real possibility
I'm not much afraid of the UTG+1 or MP3 as they might be donking around... As for the original re-raiser, even regs advocate re-raising with JJ sometimes.. Imagine what a random donk would re-raise here..
I'm telling you with any read that one of them's good this is a fold.. Without reads, easy push IMO.. I would push with JJ too.. AK,JJ is my range..
at the 11 game,9 peoeple
with stats,how many would be regs,abc poker guy,and donks?
So let me get this straight, for the people that believe in the shove (squeeze) here. Your thinking is the only player were really worried about is MP1 because he open 3 betted- an UTG raiser....thats a pretty strong bet IMO, im giving him a ranage of {JJ+,AKs+}, this may be a bit to solid but I dont see villian doing this with any other cards...im pretty sure were behind this range, but your assuming because of how weak MP3 and UTG+1 are they will fold to your shove , leaving all the dead chips in the pot to compensate our disadvantage to his range? Is this what you guys are thinking....I believe if you shove MP3 is going to be calling based off his willingness to call the 3-bet in that kind of position and potentially have to risk his entire stack if UTG+1 reraises....i dont really see how even if these were losing players a shove is easy here....Im folding...
I think only MP1 will call you here..You don't think they'll fold but they do when MP1 calls.. when he does, JJ+,AK+ would be the range I would put a "good player" on and as a result fold... you might even see this with AJ and 88 from random players..
tell me you didn't so far and I'll be really surprised.. :D.. Plus all the dead money etc..
Well, even though I already gave my answer that I would fold this without much thought, the whole reason I posted this is because I agree with Tai in that I feel I might missing some value here if I fold. I'm not sure if I feel that way because of all the dead chips in the pot or the payout structure of SnG's but if we push I feel that we only get called by a better hand unless you like praying to get called by a donk.
Exactly, I dont think anyone would call a 4bet shove with AQs or less (except total donk) so if you get a call, probably 70-80% of the time you are looking at a coin flip or worse. This is def a tough spot to be in on the first hand lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryski
I only have experience with SNG's of $10 and less, so that is where I'm coming from...
I think this is a fold. Dead chips in the pot aside, that doesn't make up for an UTG+1 raise, MP reraise and call. Without reads, I don't assume a 4-5XBB in EP to be anything less than PP or AK. Even if THEY are donking around, MP ISN'T imo. Add another player calling the 3bet, and we seem beaten.
Without any math involved (how can we do any legit math without reads), I think that ICM tells us to fold. Let's hold onto our chips and wait a few rounds to dominate dominate the donks with our AK push.
why do you want to get called? I think it's a good result if everybody folds..