100NL Check behind river with top 2?

Villain is 25/22/2.0. Nothing out of line, and I've been aggresive pre, squeezing and stealing and 3betting and whatnot. I think this is a wa/wb situation on the turn, so I like calling to protect against bluffs. On the river, does his check mean less than a set always? As in, can we bet here comfortably or is this a situation where he's only got worse given his line and won't put any more $ in so checking is the same as betting

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($161.10)
Button ($81.35)
SB ($99.80)
BB ($128.80)
Hero ($200.35)
MP ($120)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
Hero raises to $4, MP calls $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9, MP folds, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($48.50) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB bets $25, Hero calls $25.

River: ($98.50) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

ur ahead here nearly always and not betting this river is losing you ALOT of value. I like your play up to the river but at this point you need to bet. His range is nearly all worse 2 pairs,kj,k10 here and the reason he checked the river is because he puts you on ak,kq,aa and is worried his 2 pair are no longer good, a set on the other hand would most definitely bet this river hoping to get looked up by the 2 pair you are likely holding. So now we just have to figure out how much hes willing to call, you could always bet like $30-40 here and get called most of the time but tbh with the pot this big and the fact he only has 80 or so left i dont mind just shoving for value and hope he cant laydown his hand.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101

ur ahead here nearly always and not betting this river is losing you ALOT of value. I like your play up to the river but at this point you need to bet. His range is nearly all worse 2 pairs,kj,k10 here and the reason he checked the river is because he puts you on ak,kq,aa and is worried his 2 pair are no longer good, a set on the other hand would most definitely bet this river hoping to get looked up by the 2 pair you are likely holding. So now we just have to figure out how much hes willing to call, you could always bet like $30-40 here and get called most of the time but tbh with the pot this big and the fact he only has 80 or so left i dont mind just shoving for value and hope he cant laydown his hand.

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This.

The check is terrible IMO as better hands bet the river as they know you like your hand enough to probably call. You do get called by worse hands too A9/A6/KQ/K9 etc etc. I don't really care if the large potion of his range folds as its a clear value bet, unless you really want some info on the dude- then check.

no bet every time

All you can eat baby. I might shove the turn.

Against a worse player I probably check behind, because that min-raise flop means the nuts so often. It also means stuff like middle pair or TPNK raising "to find where they are". The guys who do this often wont fold to a river bet, so theres value.

Depends a bit on which category you put him in.

WTF. I'm betting here every time because good players with out-think themselves with soooo many hands here.

Thats what I'm saying. Against a good player theres lots of value here, but against the right type of bad enough player I dont think there is.

Lets think about opponents range here on the river;

99/66, though I think villain bets these as its obvious we like our hand. KQ, which just rivered two pair or KJ. A6/A9 which also hit two pair, or some weaker hands/air.

Even if we only get called by the top of his range, KQ and sets, it is a break even play as there are 6 combinations of KQ and 3 each of 66 and 99. I think we get called lighter than that

I think the phrase 'only better hands call' is widely overused/misunderstood, especially on this type of board its not really applicable given ur hand strength and the fact villain checked river.

This is a bet every time, against every player.

bjsaust - don't read too much into min-raises. Just today (although at 50, not 100 NL) I've had two different atrocious players min-raise me on the flop with top pair weak kicker (probably just "finding out if he's good" - it ended up costing him a lot of money because I had 2 pair and let him donk off some chips instead of re-raising immediately) and a flush draw. Yes it's often a sign of strength, but the most noteworthy thing about bad players is that they act illogically. Their min-raise with the nuts is bad for its own reasons, which means they might do similarly stupid things with other hands for DIFFERENT stupid reasons.

Against a "good" player, if he's checking it either means he's check-folding or else he has a set and thinks that any hand that calls his shove will vbet, and additionally you might turn some missed and marginal hands into bluffs. A "good" player would not have K9s because of preflop and would always bet KQ on the river. If "good" is how you rate this player, then check. Its likely he sucks though so just bet.