The maths of playing above your bankroll

Weird question today. Full Tilt randomly threw me a $200 bonus (for being awesome, I guess). The trick is I only have 2 weeks to clear it.

At my usual stakes (50 NL) and the hours I am able to play, this is unpossible. I think I can jump to 100 NL and clear most or all of it. But I haven't played 100 NL since Party Poker kicked out its US players, and I've been running like a wet dishrag lately - lots of break even sessions with the occasional -1 buyin for flavor.

However, I jumped into 100 NL this morning - played a lot of 6max and also some full ring while I was getting comfortable - and it went well. I cleared $20 of bonus and added $160 to my bankroll.

In my account as it stands right now, I have 9 buyins for this level. Does the math support me continuing to take this risk, or should I drop back to 50 and just grind out what I can in the time I have? I feel like I can play a completely ABC game and as long as I beat the rake, the bonus is overlay. Or should I be more worried about variance than I am?

You should know what kind of BI swings you generally have. 9 BIs sure as hell ain't much of a cushion.

When you toy with BR management you leave player/grinder territory, and enter the world of the gambl0r.

So.......yah feelin' lucky punk? How important is your BR to you?

I think this post is probably the most supportive one you'll get here for this plan of yours :p

its ok to do this for a bit but if you hit 7 buyins ( thats where you about moved up anyway) i would finish up at 50nl, no point in underrolling yourself for 50 too severely (id prefer at least 20BI).

buyin half at 100NL

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Originally Posted by d0zer

So.......yah feelin' lucky punk? How important is your BR to you?

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Only somewhat important. I've withdrawn about $1200 over the last few months because I wasn't running well and didn't want to move up while the game was beating me up. So if I lose this, that's hardly the end of my poker career... it's more of a self-imposed limitation.

Free money is free money, no matter how you earn it. Just because you won't earn your full potential during the bonus window does not mean you should make a bad BR decision in order to attempt to clear it. Take the free money you'll earn at your level and be happy.

This is an attempt by FT to get low level regs into a game where they will lose their money to the sharks so the sharks don't go elsewhere.


Econ 101 dude.
BR management is 3 parts math 1 part pain threshold.

Can you handle the pain of gettin' flat out stacked with the best hand 3 times in a row?

I have been playing $100NL for about a month and a half since rebuilding my BR. This was last night

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/5296/91500505hn0.jpg

-8.5 BI in a session?

*barfs in mouth*

disgusting graph. Get it away from me immediately. I feel cursed after looking at it :x

It was my first night on party since moving back to a couple freindly sites. I didn't want to derail the thread, but no bonus is worth a BR. I advise against it. Just grind, there are plenty of chances to get bonuses and RB. OP has to remmeber what going through that grind felt, I never want to do it again.

As for me I still have 30+ BI's

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Originally Posted by jyms

no bonus is worth a BR.

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QFT.

I bet a good chunk of that $200 bonus could be cleared at 50NL in the timeperiod anyway.

Thanks for the replies, guys - I figured it would be along these lines but I was curious if there were any competing opinions. I think I'll stick to 50 and see what I can clear.

Yeah, bonus is that, a bonus. Dont distract your standard game for it.

Play twice as much 50nl instead :D.

9 bi for 100nl? if i do the maths correctly, you dont even really have enough to take shots at 50nl.

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Originally Posted by will641

9 bi for 100nl? if i do the maths correctly, you dont even really have enough to take shots at 50nl.

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Did have $4400 when this started. I don't play with the typical 20 BI's move up strat

And I dropped 3 more in 200 hands today so I will be finishing the month at $50NL just to get some confidence back.

This als why I feel so strongly about BR management in other threads

9 buyins is nuts imo unless you play like a giant nit

Dude, look at my non showdown line. It was all about showdowns. I did see about 30% showdowns and W$SD% was about 44%. I just won nothing with sets, seen big PP's get beat when ballooning the pot and missed on a ton of combo draws. Shit happens.

http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/1659/62019034fv8.jpg

As for the stats, my calling 3 bet stat looks fucked. I will be checking this out. It should be at least 66%

edit: yea I checked it was only for $140 over 13 hands. Still to much
My big losses $941 came from losing at showdown with pots over 50BB.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dalecooper

Thanks for the replies, guys - I figured it would be along these lines but I was curious if there were any competing opinions. I think I'll stick to 50 and see what I can clear.

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it's released in increments. You'll clear a big chunk. Your decision is wise. Check my op thread for a ten buyin downswing at 100nl only a week ago - lucky I'm crazyrolled...