Instinct (-EV?)

I know many of you internet players will bash me for this. Saying is non-scientific or -EV. Ever since I started playing poker I have a feeling about wins and loss, usually before the showdown. I feel joy when i am about the win, pain when I am about to loss. Someday these feelings are stronger than other days. I don't get it all the time, but often enough to keep me confused or dazzled.

here is a hand i should have called, I knew i should have called, but of course, its very illogical to do that. Right when I was about to fold I had this feeling, telling me a four is coming up. These doesnt just happen randomly...

I know a few pros rely on these kind of gut instinct to play, Kenny tran for one, john phan drinks beer to bring out his instinct.

How can I develop this?

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Gracelle ($41.09)
UTG+1 Hero ($50.70)
CO mikee851 ($11.00)
BTN akirama ($50.70)
SB ricardys ($58.25)
BB AlmightyFlynn ($77.15)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 :7d: :4s:
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, mikee851 calls $2, 1 fold, ricardys calls $1.75, AlmightyFlynn calls $1.50

Flop: :7s: :qd: :ks: ($8, 4 players)
ricardys checks, AlmightyFlynn checks, Hero checks, mikee851 bets $1, ricardys raises to $5.50, AlmightyFlynn folds, Hero folds, mikee851 calls $4.50

Turn: :td: ($19, 2 players)
ricardys bets $4.75, mikee851 goes all-in $3.50

River: :4c: ($27.25, 2 players)

Final Pot: $27.25
mikee851 shows: :qc: :jh:
ricardys shows: :kh: :js:

ricardys wins $25.95 ( won +$13.70 )
AlmightyFlynn lost -$2.00
Hero lost -$2.00
mikee851 lost -$11.00

there is a big difference between instinctively "knowing" that a certain card is going to come and relying on that, and instinctively "knowing" that your opponent is full of shit. The former is guessing, and is not going to be any better than chance. Using this will lead to long term losing decisions.

the reason you say sometimes it's on, and sometimes it's not is you are guessing, and sometimes you will guess right. Then there is something called the confirmation bias, where we remember those instances where we were right, but tend to forget the ones where we were wrong, thereby leading us to believe that we are correct more often than we are. again, a surefire way to lose.

you did not "know" that a 4 was going to come, when the 4 came you decided that you knew it was coming. Even if before it came, you said that the 4 was coming, it doesn't mean you knew. Most of the time, when the 4 doesn't come, you just forget the whole episode.

Everything pgil just said is spot on. You, as well as everyone else, has a selective memory. You remember the time when you get Aces ahead and get dogged by a donk who called with 73o preflop (trust me I remember it!). But we seem to forget, or even overlook, when we were a dog and outdrew the other guy.

In my opinion, the happiness you say you feel when your about to win, or the pain when you are about to lose, is simply how confident you are in your hand or how strong your hand is compared to your opponents range. I mean sure you feel happiness when you catch topset on the flop and dude openshoves into you. And you obviously feel pain when you can't get away from your straight to the obvious flush on the board. But I'm betting you don't have the happy feeling when you call with middle pair and win. Or happy when you call with a flush only to be beat by another flush.

As far as knowing the 4 was coming, you didn't know. You suspected that it might. And this time, it did, but were you really considering calling off your entire stack to see if it would? I sure hope not. And if it didn't come you would have been happy in your fold. I've folded 72o UTG before and had the flop come 772. Does that mean I should start opening 72o UTG? Nope, because the chances of that happening is slim. Even if I feel it will happen the next time I'm in that spot.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ovaltine88

How can I develop this?

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How can you develop raising from UTG w 74 and then wanting to get involved in a big pot w bottom pair because you think you're going to hit 2 pair (which isn't even always going to be good)???

Why would you want to "develop" that? I'd try and work more on eliminating it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sil693

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ovaltine88

How can I develop this?

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How can you develop raising from UTG w 74 and then wanting to get involved in a big pot w bottom pair because you think you're going to hit 2 pair (which isn't even always going to be good)???

Why would you want to "develop" that? I'd try and work more on eliminating it.

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This is kind of funny because I haven't seen a thread like this in quite a while.

Most people will start to develop an intuition around timing tells and other opponent behavior such as betting patterns that will sometimes have you feel one way or another on what seem like difficult decisions, but that's just your subconscious letting you know what it sees.

As far as knowing what cards are coming, it's bullshit and you need to seriously realize this before you start playing higher.

I remember seeing a dude on the daily show or colbert once talking about the value of subconscious / instinct "intuitive" / gut responses. His basic idea was that they're only as good as their training, which is why someone who hasn't studied the game at all, but played enough, will get a 'bad feeling about a 4flush board when a nit wakes up I fires a 3bet into him.

So trust your gut when it's got experience in the subject matter. As far as what cards are coming, see: confirmation bias. But if you can actually prove yer a psychic, call this guy: http://skepdic.com/randi.html.

Wait -- screw that. You could pwn the WSOP every year fer far more cash.

If anybody could tell what cards are coming, even with only an accuracy slightly over random guessing, the casinos of the world would not exist. They rely on a very small win margin. I think it's about 2% +EV for roulette, or something like that.
Nobody will ever be able to tell which cards are coming... that includes you.
Of course, if you do - James Rhandi has 1 Million waiting for you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by oskar

If anybody could tell what cards are coming, even with only an accuracy slightly over random guessing, the casinos of the world would not exist. They rely on a very small win margin. I think it's about 2% +EV for roulette, or something like that.
Nobody will ever be able to tell which cards are coming... that includes you.
Of course, if you do - James Rhandi has 1 Million waiting for you.

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if you can tell what cards are coming 1 million is peanuts.

gl miss cleo.