Some Theory Numbers... Are they right?

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06-20-2008, 09:49 AM
Monty3038

Some Theory Numbers... Are they right?

Ok, I haven't read the 'Theory of Poker' yet but I assume this is covered in it... but I did it long hand to study and learn... which helps me retain things better... Here is what i have found so far... I recommend doing this long-hand... I'm no math guru but ok at math. I haven't started working on the statistics yet but think this is a great exercise for beginners...

Total number of random starting hands: 1328

Total Number of suited starting hands: 312

% of starting hands that are suited: 312/1328 = 23.49%

# of AA starting hand combinations: 6
% chance of getting AA as hole cards = 6/1328 = 0.45%

# of paired hole cards combinations: 6 x 13 (6 pair combinations x 13 cards) = 78
% chance of pocket pair hole cards: 78/1328 = 5.87%
(includes AA)

Please tell me if you're a statistician and can verify those numbers look correct... or if I'm approaching it wrong... working on details for starting hands running down with different breakdowns how likely you are to get dealt them as your hole cards... might be a waste of time but I am bored at work... I'm doing this in the long run to clear up in my head how often someone gets dealt cards I think they might be holding...
06-20-2008, 09:56 AM
Monty3038

Adding another number percent into the mix...

% chance any two hole cards contain an Ace: 14.9%

Can that be right? Hmm... let me re-look at that one.

I have built a hands spreadsheet with all starting hands in it... I think... I hope I did this right.
06-20-2008, 10:06 AM
jyms

Re: Some Theory Numbers... Are they right?

Quote:

Ok, I haven't read the 'Theory of Poker' yet but I assume this is covered in it

No it's not, This is not what it is about. This is an absolute must read for any poker player that is serious about improving.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monty3038

... but I did it long hand to study and learn... which helps me retain things better... Here is what i have found so far... I recommend doing this long-hand... I'm no math guru but ok at math. I haven't started working on the statistics yet but think this is a great exercise for beginners...

Total number of random starting hands: 132652x51 combinations
or 169 possible holdings ( AKs, QT, 45, 33....)

Total Number of suited starting hands: 312

% of starting hands that are suited: 312/1326 = 24.75%

# of AA starting hand combinations: 6
% chance of getting AA as hole cards = 6/1328 = 0.45% close enough

# of paired hole cards combinations: 6 x 13 (6 pair combinations x 13 cards) = 78
% chance of pocket pair hole cards: 78/1328 = 5.73%
(includes AA) close enough

Please tell me if you're a statistician and can verify those numbers look correct... or if I'm approaching it wrong... working on details for starting hands running down with different breakdowns how likely you are to get dealt them as your hole cards... might be a waste of time but I am bored at work... I'm doing this in the long run to clear up in my head how often someone gets dealt cards I think they might be holding...
06-20-2008, 12:04 PM
Ovaltine88

Ok, I have Dave Sklansky, Holdem theory and practice.
Whats the difference between that and theory of poker?
06-20-2008, 02:15 PM
Monty3038

Re: Some Theory Numbers... Are they right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyms

Quote:

Ok, I haven't read the 'Theory of Poker' yet but I assume this is covered in it

No it's not, This is not what it is about. This is an absolute must read for any poker player that is serious about improving.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monty3038

... but I did it long hand to study and learn... which helps me retain things better... Here is what i have found so far... I recommend doing this long-hand... I'm no math guru but ok at math. I haven't started working on the statistics yet but think this is a great exercise for beginners...

Total number of random starting hands: 132652x51 combinations
or 169 possible holdings ( AKs, QT, 45, 33....)

Total Number of suited starting hands: 312

% of starting hands that are suited: 312/1326 = 24.75%

# of AA starting hand combinations: 6
% chance of getting AA as hole cards = 6/1328 = 0.45% close enough

# of paired hole cards combinations: 6 x 13 (6 pair combinations x 13 cards) = 78
% chance of pocket pair hole cards: 78/1328 = 5.73%
(includes AA) close enough

Please tell me if you're a statistician and can verify those numbers look correct... or if I'm approaching it wrong... working on details for starting hands running down with different breakdowns how likely you are to get dealt them as your hole cards... might be a waste of time but I am bored at work... I'm doing this in the long run to clear up in my head how often someone gets dealt cards I think they might be holding...

Ok, maybe I'm missing something, I wrote them all out longhand on the computer and just re-counted them. I still get 1328.
06-20-2008, 02:20 PM
GatorJH

Wait,
You wrote out one thousand three hundred and twenty eight hold'em starting hands out longhand?
06-20-2008, 02:29 PM
d0zer

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Wait,
You wrote out one thousand three hundred and twenty eight hold'em starting hands out longhand?

:lol:

Monty -- if you're familiar with choose notation, it's 52 choose 2, which is
52! / (2! * 50!) = (52 * 51) / 2 = 1326.
06-20-2008, 02:59 PM
kmind

Just curious on what you intend to do with these numbers?
06-20-2008, 03:13 PM
Monty3038

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Wait,
You wrote out one thousand three hundred and twenty eight hold'em starting hands out longhand?

Well, typed them out actually, and yes, i did it in Excel. I can send you the spreadsheet. I started to color code them as well but then that was just OCD'ish.

Hmm... not familiar with choose notation, but I built the chart and counted them. Not sure where I'm wrong, but it is insignifigant in the long run.

What I intend to do with these numbers is familiarize myself with the percentages, since I posted most of the analysis above. It also helps me mentally commit to learning the math side of the game more. If I spent the time typing out the chart, it will help me with visualizing the hands and the chances better.
06-20-2008, 03:41 PM
d0zer

mMmm....The next time I need a good 200 hours of tedious data entry work done I know who to call :)
06-20-2008, 05:16 PM
GatorJH

you didn't forget suited Aces did you? I know I do that all the time when counting random hands.

Monty, you CRAZY!!! ;)
06-21-2008, 11:17 AM
jyms

Quote:

Originally Posted by d0zer

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Wait,
You wrote out one thousand three hundred and twenty eight hold'em starting hands out longhand?

:lol:

Monty -- if you're familiar with choose notation, it's 52 choose 2, which is
52! / (2! * 50!) = (52 * 51) / 2 = 1326.

wow, dude. It's 52 starting cards and after you get one, you have 51 left. 52 x 51 /2 = 1326

Monty? have you heard of or seen Pokerstove. You would have been farther ahead in your learning curve by actually spending all this time playing with that.