JTs vs multi-tabling hand reader

Table sucks, opponent has been around a couple orbits and has an auto-reload script. Lots of pre-flop raising and re-raising. Soul reader says he's someone from a forum like this one. He just thinks I'm another TAggy sort. I thought I'd rep AA/KK and hope he'd read my hand right.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($279.35)
UTG+1 ($163.60)
CO ($157.90)
BTN ($258.00)
SB ($286.00)
BB ($202.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG :ts: :js:
Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, BB raises to $24, Hero calls $18

Flop: :qs: :qd: :2s: ($49, 2 players)
BB bets $40, Hero calls $40

Turn: :3h: ($129, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $80

What's your plan if he bets $80 on the turn?

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Originally Posted by badgers

What's your plan if he bets $80 on the turn?

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Fold and hate life.

yeah easy fold if he continues the turn, but as played if hes a decent hand reader he knows his range is way behind yours here, so ISF theorem ftw

He 3bet your UTG range so IMO you are pushing him off AK, but getting called by most PPs on this board.
I'd like it better if the board was a rainbow or if you looked nitty instead of taggy. Repping a thin range is hard b/c people don't believe you very often.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silly String

He 3bet your UTG range so IMO you are pushing him off AK, but getting called by most PPs on this board.

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I'll take it.

The way the game was playing, I think his 3-bet range is going to have more unpaired hands than usual.

Looks good, I might even bet less on the turn though. It's a cheaper bluff and if he's a good hand reader he's going to know what you're repping and that his decision for his stack has to be made here.

If you bet less than $80 you aren't committing yourself to a push and you might have to give up the hand. You might as well go $80 and maximize FE with a std 2/3 bet size then you are committed to the CRAI.

I'd be shoving AA, KK and Qx on this flop so I just do the same with a FD

Your line is tricky, but, tbh, I really think villain actually shows up with AA, KK or good air quite a bit here so I'm not a big fan of a turn bet.

One thing you might consider is that he should be check-folding quite a few rivers with less than KK since it's unlikely for you to be holding unpaired spades and there's no reason for you to protect AA/KK on this turn vs his range.

so I actually like checking back on turn and betting any non-A/K river when checked to. I'd expect him to show up with JJ or less a huge % of time when he checks turn/river (lol epiphany!).

More importantly, I think he'll only very rarely be 2-barrel bluffing you (because your range should be strong by the time you get to the turn this way) so I'd really wouldn't be afraid missing the opportunity to bluff riv by checking turn.

I'd actually probably call the turn if he bet and shove any river if he checks.

As action happens, I'd like to think there's a better way to play this but im thinking not.

Actually, I'm in between calling or shoving if he bets turn.

As played, now I'm thinking I'd just bet turn 65 and dare him to call any non A/K/J river.

I really think it's +EV to take a free card here (you pick up a bet if you hit any of your outs basically, he's bluffing a J or T river enough), so you'd have to convince me that this bet was going to work an assload.

if u r gonna flat the flop i like the line of checking behind the turn and making a value looking type bet. i think that u cant ever rep AA/KK in this spot ... if u r trying to, i think u r definitely playing this flop sub optimally as i would be bluff raising it a ton w/ air, so id want to do the same w/ a big pair and try to get it in.

what u can credibly rep is like 88-JJ by flatting flop, c/b turn and betting like 2/3 pot on river. that should fold out all smaller pairs hes holding, as well as unpaired high cards that miss the flop. if flush came in on river i might try to start overbetting to try to get in his head.

I've thought a fair bit about this hand, here's the rough conclusion:-

This hand is all about preflop ranges and nothing much else - If my estimates based on your reads are correct, he's not folding any pair on this turn and possibly not AK because thinkers (as I assume he thinks you are) rarely, if ever bet anything decent on turn.

Therefore juxtapose how often he doesn't have A pair+, AK with the expectation of your bluff and you may well get somewhere.

this kinda sucks vs a hand reader. Your preflop calling range includes mostly pairs and a few suited broadways. You should be checking back the turn with most of your range- all but Qx and some air. When you check back the turn you can bet reasonably small on most rivers and credibly rep a hand like TT and he will still fold his AK type holdings. If you do bet the turn, since your range is polarized to No SD value or like Qx/AA, you need not bet big at all because its going to be a WA/WB situation for your opponent and he's probably not going to push you off your draw if you bet pretty small. When you bet so big, it's like you really want him to fold. What valuable hand could you have that would need to be protected so aggressively? I would go all in with AK+ here in villains shoes. (It's not that your turn bet is so big in relation to the pot size; its too big relative to the effective stack sizes considering your ranges)

also fold pre i don't get why everyone likes to call here.

JTs isnt really in my UTG opening range so this hand seems a little strange to me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AnTman_69

JTs isnt really in my UTG opening range so this hand seems a little strange to me.

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Sometimes in the unlimited hold them we mix up our play.

Pre-flop is a feel thing. If people are being nits and/or the blinds are terribad I'll widen my ranges.

if the 3 bet had come from neone else would you have folded? Did the fact that you were in position .. sway ur decision to call the 3 bet.? Or did u just want to try an out play the guy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AnTman_69

if the 3 bet had come from neone else would you have folded? Did the fact that you were in position .. sway ur decision to call the 3 bet.? Or did u just want to try an out play the guy.

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Some GAMB00L there. With so much 3-betting at the table I figured I'd pick a spot to play a pot without a top 2% hand. Generally, I've been playing 4-bet or fold.

i'm sure its been said but fold preflop and check turn, and fwiw, i'm pretty sure raising flop is better than this line.

I just don't think calling the flop is worth the information that the turn gives us, seeing as its often misinformation. Also even though we have to fold the turn, that doesn't mean we aren't getting bluffed out quite a bit.

I don't mind pre-flop but I raise the flop. As played I like the turn bet, your hand doesn't have much value and you'll fold a bunch of stuff you're behind, AK, AJs, maybe JJ.