Q-10s 100NL

Villain is ggplz, a TAG regular who has been active in 3betting me this session. I won a stack off him earlier AI PF A-K>Q-Q.

Is this value bet on the river is too thin? Can i discount A-x from his range at all once the turn goes check/check?

Seat 4: VI-Popsmak ($221.50 in chips)
Seat 6: ggplz ($120.95 in chips)
3 other players

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to VI-Popsmak [Ts Qs]
VI-Popsmak: raises $4 to $5
dechamplain: folds
ggplz: calls $5
Rock & Fold: folds
fredo78: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [9h Td Ac]
fredo78: checks
VI-Popsmak: bets $11
ggplz: calls $11
fredo78: folds
*** TURN *** [9h Td Ac] [Kc]
VI-Popsmak: checks
ggplz: checks
*** RIVER *** [9h Td Ac Kc] [7h]
VI-Popsmak: bets $31

I think it's too thin and I don't discount Ax from his range after the turn.

too thin i think

isn't the only question here.... what can he have that he will fold?

i think the only way to win here is to make him fold.

hes not folding better. and we have the best hand a decent amount.

i don't understand.

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hes not folding better. and we have the best hand a decent amount.

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he won't fold Ax?

what dont you understand? is Ax better? yes, ok well then he wont fold that.

yeah this is basically a bluff- i think you should c/f. You beat 87 and JT, but they both have some showdown value so id assume a 100nl player isnt going to turn them into a bloof

i was thinking about it, and what if the K wasnt there, and you replaced it with a 2. then could we c/c river? me thinks yes.

just bet turn, thank me later

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Originally Posted by zook

I think it's too thin and I don't discount Ax from his range after the turn.

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I agree & I think you are only folding hands that you already beat. If you're willing to lay $31 in to that pot then I c/c river OOP to maximize value. Villain probably checks behind a lot of what is beating you right now, which gives you a cheap show down for your hand w/ SDvalue.

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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

what dont you understand? is Ax better? yes, ok well then he wont fold that.

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i guess i thought by Ax the OP meant A-rag... A2, A6 etc.

which is an unlikely holding given villains image.

sauce, can you explain why you would bet the turn?????

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Originally Posted by GrindCity3

sauce, can you explain why you would bet the turn?????

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you showed weakness on the turn so he's going to think (and rightly so most of the time) that your hand is pretty week and you're turning it into a bluff on the river, so he'll pick you off with Ax hands and maybe even weaker than that.

if you bet the turn he will fold Ax and other stuff that beats us a higher percentage of the time because our hand looks so strong.

at least that's what I think he meant