Equity??? Warning: May Hurt Heads!
Howdy folks,
So far, you guys have helped clear up many of the fundamentals implied odds, playing for sets, priced in ATC, EV & FE etc and now I am onto my next big hurdle. In fact, I wasn’t even aware of it until I was reading a strategy guide.
It involves maths and this is where I am getting confused. So patience please. And to ensure that we don’t go round in circles, if you can understand where I am coming from, rather than just telling me the correct answer, then that will go a long way to getting me on the right track. Thanks.
I think it’s called equity. I am already familiar with ICM but not what I am about to run through here.
Ok, here is the article in question:
You are playing $1/$2 short handed and have raised pf to $8 with QQ UTG. It folds to the BB who goes all in for $48 and you have a stack of $112. As it stands, you have to call $40 to win $59.
He is a fairly straight forward villain who raises little pf and through history you can assign him a range from JJ – AA, AKo & AKs.
Against this range you have a 45.6% chance of winning if he has JJ - AA and that to call would be +EV. If JJ is not in his range then your equity drops to 40% and is thus an easy fold.
And this is where I get confused.
1) The head hurting bit. I know this is NOT pot odds but the EV aspects should work out the same. Ie: the maths shows that if the pot odds are greater than the odds of winning then that is a winning play whilst calling when the pot odds are lower then that is a losing play – eg: paying 1/2 pot to chase a 1/6 draw is -EV as it will lose you money over time.
So even though this is NOT pot odds, I cannot understand how calling with just a 45.6% chance to win is good as the pot odds on offer (call $40 to win $59) means you need a 67% chance to call.
In this example, the pot is offering 2/3 yet as you stand just 45.6% (barely 1/2) to win then the pot needs to offer in excess of ½ to make such a call profitable – such as 1/3 or1/4.
Now, I was able to email the person who wrote the article and he sent me this reply:
You are a 45% chance to win the pot against his range. In other words you are going to win 9 times out of every 20. For each of the 11 times you lose you lose $40. For the 9 times you win you get $59. So if you ran it 20 times you would lose $440 (11 x 40) and up $531 (9 x 59). So you would end up a long-term winner by making this play.
The maths that he shows does add up to a winning play. But I don’t understand how it adds up to a winning play because from my perspective, this completely undermines the maths of pot odds. As mentioned, if you chase 2/3 bets with just 1/2 chance of success then the maths shows that it is a losing strategy – hence the maths behind pot odds. Yet here, his maths shows that making such calls is profitable.
Also, he just told me the answer but that didn't get through and I felt too embarrrassed to email him again. And that si why I ask that you try and see where I am coming from and then explaining - rather than than just tell me the answer as he did.
2) If 45.6% to win is a profitable call then how can just falling to 40% if he doesn't have JJ be a losing call?
3) As for the equity aspect, I think it's called that as in another thread someone said to call an all in with just a pair of QQ means your equity is only 50% - but how is that figured out?
Once again, help and thanks!
Re: Equity??? Warning: May Hurt Heads!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder
You are playing $1/$2 short handed and have raised pf to $8 with QQ UTG. It folds to the BB who goes all in for $48 and you have a stack of $112. As it stands, you have to call $40 to win $59.
I'm still struggling to understand how the pot is $59
Re: Equity??? Warning: May Hurt Heads!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jibalob
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder
You are playing $1/$2 short handed and have raised pf to $8 with QQ UTG. It folds to the BB who goes all in for $48 and you have a stack of $112. As it stands, you have to call $40 to win $59.
I'm still struggling to understand how the pot is $59
Your raise = $8
All-in = $48
Blinds = $3
Total = $59