Hand Reading 4 Noobs, Part VI (Best Ever!!)

Villain is 50/25/5 over only 8 hands - so not much read.

FTR regs and icons plz don't pwn the thread until Wednesday. Micro grinders and newbies have at it - give your range pre and narrow it based on the action.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($22.98)
UTG 1 ($7.53)
CO ($8.81)
Hero ($51.32)
SB ($24.75)
BB ($21.27)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is BTN :8d: :8s:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.5, Hero raises to $1.5, 2 folds, CO calls $1

Flop: :2h: :ah: :8h: ($3.35, 2 players)
CO bets $0.75, Hero ??

It's possible he flopped it, I take the minraise preflop to mean either a drawing hand (wants a bloated multi-pot) or pure garbage. So basically very wide range pre.

Why would he minbet here? Also baffled. Could be trapping, block betting with a lone high heart, or bluffing terribly. I'm going to put the flopped flush on a narrow part of his range (and I can't play scared here) and raise for value, flush draws will make a mistake in calling.

I'd put him on Ax, Khx (maybe something like K9+), and all PP's preflop. On the flop, you can rule out all PP's TT and under, and most likely JJ+ that doesn't have the heart. Khx is very like at this point, maybe something like KQ. If he's doing this with AA he's a total donk. So yeah, Ax (even moreso with a mid-high heart), Khx and JJ+ with a heart.

I originally voted to bet the flop and turn, but given his stack size I just shove. No sense in letting him see another card for a flop bet of $4 that will commit him in the hand anyway.

And yeah there's a small chance that he flopped the flush, but even still I'm still shoving w/ the redraw to the boat.

V raises w/ oh I don't know pps 99+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQo+
Calls the 3bet with well...the read is weak but gosh it seems those are such extreme stats(right? I have no real experience w/ them) even for just 8 hands. Wouldn't doubt he's calling with a lot of his raising range, though I'd expect probably JJ+ to push over the top, probably AK too.

The flop bet, I think you don't need to be scared of a flush here as a large % of his range is not suited, much less suited with :h::h:. With his bet out I think he has AX a lot here, with or without a heart I'm not sure V has a distinction.

As it is I'm reraising for value here, with the assumption that his stack is so small I'm happy going all in at any point in the hand, but I'd probably raise to 4 in hopes he'd call that easier than he would call a push. Then bet the rest of his stack on whatever card comes out.

It's probably better to just push, but thats not what I'd do, :). Somebody tell me I'm wrong!

I'm gonna give it a go. I have very little experience with 6max since I mainly play FR.

Looking at his stack size of just over 35BB and even though it's only 8 hands he's put money in half the time I would have to put him on a very wide range. The question is of his 25% PFR were there any normal sized raises like 4xBB or are they all min-raises. When he calls the three-bet I'd still have him on a fairly wide range, 66+(could possibly be as low as 22+), A2s+, A9o+, JT+. Running that through Pokerstove that puts his range at about 16%.

On the flop I would put him on a lot of A rag type hands or a hand with a single heart. Always a possibility of having suited cards but unlikely. If he had two hearts in his hand I think he would've bet a bit stronger than he did. I'm going with the re-raise for value here. If he calls he's got a large portion of his stack in the pot and I put him all-in on the turn. If a heart falls, and even then I think you're committed to the point you put it in anyway.

As we've only seen 8 hands there's not much info to read him with. I would normally not take too much notice of stats so early, but in this case I think someone with a VPIP of 50% after his first 8 hands and who raises only 2xBB is loose and decidedly fishy (at least without any more specific read). I don't think he's laying down too many hands to your 3x raise. So I put him on a pretty wide range pre - maybe 77+, Ax, Kx, QJ, JT, maybe even smaller suited connectors.

Post he's bet less than 1/4 pot, which I think makes a really big hand like AA or two hearts unlikely. I think he most likely has something with one heart, 77-KK or Ax.

He only has $6.50 or so behind - I'd put him all in.

Amusingly I spent a little time over the weekend playing with a LAG idea in $0.01/$0.02 and ended up with stats of 55/45 or so - also read a bit about LAG strategies here and there, and one thing I remember from HoC is the mention that many LAGs have a standard raise of 2-2.5bb as it's enough to fold out some tight blinds for a free blind steal, and little enough to have other blinds call only to fold on any flop. Thus, given the rudimentary stats and the min-raise one possible interpretation is just that he's LAG and that's how he bets. On second thought, if this is true he really sucks. Short stacks do not lend themselves to LAG play.

An alternative to min-raise + call PF and super weak lead is the slowplayed AA. This line with AA is currently much publicised (and maybe even popular), and while I'll certainly consider it possible - I won't take it for granted.

The flop action is a little weak for a LAG with a missed flop. It's not unlikely for a LAG to put out a 1/2 PSB as a c-bet as most people will fold anyway, but 1/4.5 PSB as here is a bit too weak to hope to provoke any folds. At the same time his stack is short enough that he should already be thinking about pot commitment.

The story his bets are telling is AA. Min-raise + flat call the raise. Weak lead screaming raise me so I can push you all in and will have no chance but to call the all-in. The weak lead can almost be considered a check and this a check-raise move. Problem is, I don't believe him and our set is easily strong enough to put him to the test.

The weak lead may not be a concealed check-raise - it may be a blocking bet with him holding a high heart. For all we know he could be holding KhKx (which again could easily play this way).

Anyway, to ranges. For his PF min-raise he could be holding any marginally playable hand, including Q9s and even worse junk. For calling the 3-bet out of position his pot odds are really good - 1:2.35 - but with a weak PF raise from him I guess he can't rule out that he could be 3-bet lightly wide a relatively wide range from the button and he'd probably still be inclined to call with more than just premium hands.

Hmm, too much rambling. Let's get succinct. If he's not a bad player he will know what his stack size does to his optimal play and though he may have chosen (stupidly) to open a wide range from the CO for a discount steal he would not have called the 3-bet (even for $1) with anything less than a medium/high pocket pair or AQ+ or maybe KQ. This still leaves a decent amount of hands like AxKh, AxQh, KhKx, KhQx, QhQx, JhJx, ThTx, 9h9x hands solidly in his range for the whole thing in addition to the AA. Although many of these have a heart as an out to a flush we have 6 outs on the turn and if that misses 9 outs on the river to a full house, so that counters that. I still think we're comfortably ahead of this range.

If he's playing poorly he'll have a lot more junk in his range.

I'm officially of two minds about my play here.
One side of me wants to argue that we're psychologically committing to an all-in on the flop, and leave the rest of the hands as maneuvering that is likely to be called (such as call flop, check/call turn, push river) as long as it ends with all-in.
The other side worries a lot about fold equity. If we push on the flop and ThTx hands fold we take it down right there. If we don't, they may draw to a flush and beat us by the river. Thus we lose fold equity. I think the counter argument is this. The value of the fold equity is mainly in folding out 9-out hands when we lay them odds that make it correct for them to fold. This value is countered in large part by our 6 outs on turn and failing that 9 outs on river to make a full house. It's less than 9 on turn or river for his flush, but I think the outs we have to a full house outweigh the loss of fold equity by not raising. If another heart comes and we don't make our full house we'll have made our set of 8s a bluff catcher by the river. I'd still call any bet and push him all in regardless.

What a delightful hand. ;)

villan has ace rag with a heart
push
my reasoning is this, hes raising his ace hugging butt off and hes semi bluffing with a half made hand with value ur 8s are about 75% over his range and u can still improve. batter the crap out of him and dont let him draw 4 free.
i dont discount wired 2s or a pp wth a heart hoping to bluff the ace with so many heart draws. if thats the case then ur still good.
plus u get implied odds next time your connectors smack the flush on the flop from the rest of the table thinking ur pushing out with a vunerable but made hand.

hit the raise button and dont stop hitting until another heart falls and the board isnt paired.
Otherwise just make a pot size raise and dont fold.

so Robb, I need closure :)

Why are we trying to hand read when were just looking to ship it in so fast? I'm never folding this flop and it's obviously a cooler if we get it in bad here...

Threads like this imply that we should consider folding middle set here against a retard which would be terrible.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by meeloche

Why are we trying to hand read when were just looking to ship it in so fast? I'm never folding this flop and it's obviously a cooler if we get it in bad here...

Threads like this imply that we should consider folding middle set here against a retard which would be terrible.

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Yeah, I'm not worried about hand reading here I'm worried about value extraction.

Probably not played all the well, tom, but for the curious:

http://weaktight.com/186410

Quote:

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Originally Posted by meeloche

Why are we trying to hand read when were just looking to ship it in so fast? I'm never folding this flop and it's obviously a cooler if we get it in bad here...

Threads like this imply that we should consider folding middle set here against a retard which would be terrible.

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Because it's for noobies, and imo noobies are overly worried about flush draws, and give too much credit to "made" flush boards.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Robb

Probably not played all the well, tom, but for the curious:

http://weaktight.com/186410

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Looks perfect to me.

Meh shove. I like raising to $3.50 and letting my opp do something stupid like shove or call to commit himself.

The shove is downright silly.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

The shove is downright silly.

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CO ($8.81)

So? His flop bet says he's not coming along anyway but at least give him a chance to get potfucked.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Warpe

So? His flop bet says he's not coming along anyway but at least give him a chance to get potfucked.

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In hindsight, this is the line I should have taken. Warpe is right.

Nh good shove

LoL @ that 3bb donkbet into 17bb pot.

Handread + narrowing:

Villain PFR: AA-88, AQ+, with more weight on JJ-88, AQ+ because lots of donks open 2x with good but not monster hands without knowing what they are doing (2x opening can have its merit especially in deep stack poker to achieve certain things like specific SPR but not when short).


His call of small 3-bet: AQ, TT-99, maybe JJ. QQ+, AK he'd probably shove but who knows.

His flop donk: AK, AQ, 99-TT with 1 heart. He doesn't have flopped flush and set of deuces here, unless he open minraised Jacks or better sooted. Weak players usually limp with those hands.

His blocking donk-bet puts most weight on 99-QQ with one heart. WIth flopped pair of Aces without redraw he'd probably bet harder or openpush for protection (aggrodonks do that oflen), check/fold PP's without redraws, and donkbet/omg1card2frush-call with big heart in hand.

Thanks for posting these Robb!

I voted for reraise $4, but I'd shove at least some of the time here.