100NL: set on dangerous flop & awful turn

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00
9 players
Seat 2: UTG+1 ($97.00 in chips)
Seat 3: MP1 ($89.80 in chips)
Seat 4: MP2 ($22.35 in chips)
Seat 5: CO+1 ($68.50 in chips)
Seat 6: CO ($106.20 in chips)
Seat 7: BU ($100.50 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero [ 10D,10S ] ($99.00 in chips)
Seat 9: BB ($77.40 in chips)
Seat 10: UTG ($67.70 in chips)
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with T :diamond: T :spade:
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, BU raises to $6, Hero raises to $15, 3 folds, BU calls.

Flop: A :spade: K :spade: T :heart: ($31, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, BU calls.

Turn: K :club: ($71, 2 players)
Hero ???

PF I should have raised to $17-$18.
villain runs like 18/11/3. As UTG was kind of a station, I would see villain raise to steal the blinds, so this should be a standard 3bet. The flop is good but dangerous, maybe I should have bet $22-23 instead of $20.
Now, the turn is really awful. Villain here either has AK/QJ/KQss, JTss or a slow played AA/KK PF.
We are only in front of KQss and JTss ...
My mind says c/f but can we?

I'm not sold on raising being the play here due to all the mistake equity in the pot. If I did raise, I would make it a bigger one and be potfucked by the turn anyway.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

I'm not sold on raising being the play here due to all the mistake equity in the pot. If I did raise, I would make it a bigger one and be potfucked by the turn anyway.

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Fnord, what do you mean by this?

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Originally Posted by jimmy44

Villain here either has AK/QJ/KQss, JTss or a slow played AA/KK PF.
We are only in front of KQss and JTss ...
My mind says c/f but can we?

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Why aren't QQ and JJ in his range? At 10nl and 25nl, I've seen 99 and 88 call 3bets, too.

Very little of the suited stuff he can have connects real well here, but the straight draws are massive. As played, I would bet hard one more time, either on the turn or on the river. I think you're ahead of his range. But I play lower stakes. I am quite possibly full of shit.

dangerous flop, awesome turn

Just go allin you are ahead 90% of the time here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

dangerous flop, awesome turn

Just go allin you are ahead 90% of the time here.

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Agreed, this isn't a horrible turn.

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

dangerous flop, awesome turn

Just go allin you are ahead 90% of the time here.

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How come this is an awesome turn? I don't understand.
What hands do you put villain on that we beat? the only think I can think of is QJ and FD. Do you think he calls flop with KQ? maybe QQ/JJ calls on that board due to gutshot, not sure ...
AK is crushing us, AA/KK were already and still are.

Actually, I've answered my own question ...
QJ, FD and QQ/JJ has more combinations then AK/AA/KK (also the fact that he doesn't have AA/KK very often as he didn't 4bet).

However, I'm not sure about the 90%, I think it's more like 70%.

Thanks guys! ;-)

Questions I have.

surely if you had AA/KK you have to reraise the flop if you were the villain? Therefor we apply less wieght to these hands.

If you have AK on this flop you can semi discount AA/KK due it meaning all of them are in play. Therefor you would consider yourself ahead the majority of the time.

Also as villain if you had AA/KK/AK you can 3bet easier preflop as you will be given less credit as it is button vrs SB. Assumption of taking the p means you can play them harder with less credit and get more calls/action.

sooted stuff can be semi ignored due to the K and A being out there on the board. Although given the late positions i could see QJs/TJs turning up here.

QQ/JJ has 4 (str8) + 2 kings + 2 (Q/J) as outs = 8. These are probably the only hands I see calling the flop that we beat.

My 'deduction' is that you are probably fairly ahead with a pocket pair being their majority holding (QQ/JJ), not that I could do this in table time. So is betting for value a bad idea as shoving will probably fold these hands? Erm just reread pot/stack sizes there is no value bet that doesn't commit us.

My final question is what calls that we beat? is QQ/JJ or whatever committed enough already? I think the bet sizing has caused us trouble and changed this from a standard hand to one that needs thinking about.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jimmy44

Fnord, what do you mean by this?

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You drove the 2 terrible players out of the pot and got a tight player with at least a goodish hand heads-up, out of position when you just have a goodish hand.

Nice first level thinking.

i agree with Fnord that we are better off flat calling with TT in this situation considering that everybody had good stack and we might hit jackpot anyways. :wink:

TT is good but not great, so keeping the donks worse range in is better. TT plays well enough vs a tags B range, even OOP and 4 handed tends to keep people honest.

$15 is to small anyway, $18 min and hammer the flop. The flop is nice, but not nice enough to get cute on.

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Originally Posted by MuddyWicket

Questions I have.

surely if you had AA/KK you have to reraise the flop if you were the villain?

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people love to slowplay

OK, so you are saying that in this case we should play only for "set" value? Because I don't believe we'll ever be able to win a pot against these 3 opps OOP and being in the worst possible relative position.
PFR's range was very wide with the 2 limpers (of course with the call on flop it became tigher, but we don't know that after his raise). I think picking the $9.5 on the pot PF most of the time with TT is not bad, am I wrong?