50NL - Flop line check

is b/f the right move here? What's the right move on the turn if he flat calls?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Hero ($51.50)
MP1 ($56.70)
MP2 ($29.45)
MP3 ($66.55)
CO ($82.35)
Button ($49.25)
SB ($61.45)
BB ($50)
UTG ($15.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/qh.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/qd.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, CO calls $2, Button raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $5, CO calls $5.

Flop: ($21.75) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/6c.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/4h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/8s.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $13.5, CO folds, Button raises to $42.25, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $48.75

Put people on ranges. k-thnx.

(Beginner comment)
You need to pay $28.75 for a chance to win $77.5. That means you need about 27% equity to justify a call.

I doubt the villain would have 3-bet pre-flop with 44 and 66. 88 is more believable to me but still only really if he's aggressive and somewhat loose.

If the villain is generally passive I would consider his range JJ-AA more or less justifying a call. If he's aggressive enough to 3bet 88 PF he's probably also aggressive enough to have AK, AQs and 99-TT in his range, which again possibly justifies a call. At work now without PokerStove so can't dig out the exact numbers.

If he flats I would be in trouble. In part I could see him flat calling with an AJs or 99 type of hand, but at the same time I'm sure he wouldn't have missed that he'd have $29 behind with a pot size of $49. It's probably more realistic to suggest that AA or KK (or 88) would flat to trap, hoping you take him for AJs or 99 and push the turn.

That said, I don't think I see myself getting away from this hand regardless. I think all my chips go in no matter what. Maybe that makes me a calling station.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Put people on ranges. k-thnx.

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Fnord is this your advice or you asking me to state what I think his range is in the FTR post?

I forget the exact stats but he was a tighty so I'm assuming JJ+/AK to 3bet, QQ+ to raise allin vs 2 players. Maybe JJ as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Keilah

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Put people on ranges. k-thnx.

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Fnord is this your advice or you asking me to state what I think his range is in the FTR post?

I forget the exact stats but he was a tighty so I'm assuming JJ+/AK to 3bet, QQ+ to raise allin vs 2 players. Maybe JJ as well.

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I think he's saying this decision is made a whole lot easier if you have a 3-betting range for villain. If you're behind most of it, then fold preflop. If you're ahead of enough of it, feel ok getting it in on this safe flop.

This situation is very villain-dependent, and the better your preflop and postflop reads are here, the easier the decision is.

Not enough focus on what the other guy has.

Once you get there, think through how he plays all the likely holdings in his range, then run the best line against those.

This isn't blackjack.

wrote an essay did some pokerstove deleted essay.

If you put his range as JJ+, AKs we have 43% of it so I am happy to get it in here given bs factor/don't push me around stuff/testicle waving.

If you take his range as QQ+, AKs we have 26% and should fold.

I used AKs to simulate that AK doesnt always shove over here. It also skews it more towards getting it allin than leaving it out.

So the question basically is how often does JJ turn up? With a tighty I would say not so often hence check folding the flop. Yeack that feels weak - especially on this ideal flop.

That means we are calling the preflop 3 bet with the clear intention due to being oop and 3bet by a tighty to trip it or dump it. $5 call to win $42 which is 8.4 to 1. I know Dan harrington said in a book sometimes 5:1 is all you need but this almost suggests folding preflop is not a huge mistake.

someone please tell me I am wrong.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MuddyWicket

I used AKs to simulate that AK doesnt always shove over here. It also skews it more towards getting it allin than leaving it out.

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I'm a newless cluebie so take this with a grain of salt - but I don't see how this assumption can stand.

His push screams fold equity to me. A move much more likely to be made with a vulnerable hand (like any AK or JJ) than a made hand (like AA). I could easily see AA or KK type hands flatting here to extract more value on later streets. If I wanted to mess around with 'not all hands of this rank being played in this way' I'd say of 6 AA hands, 2 would push and 4 would flat call - of 6 KK hands 4 would push and 2 would flat call - of AK hands 8-12 would push and 4-8 would call or fold.

I still don't see a fold for our Hero here, except if the villain is ultra tight and playing only QQ+ with no chance of JJ or AK. Once JJ or AK are possible I think we have to call.

Edit note: The other thing I meant to mention. QQ is the very top of our Hero's range the way the hand was played.