Line Check

Decision in question: Flop call.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
10 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($6.48)
UTG+1 ($4.10)
UTG+2 ($5.90)
MP1 ($24.33)
MP2 ($12.81)
MP3 ($9.90)
CO ($8.79)
Hero ($10.67)
SB ($5.74)
BB ($2.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 10 players) Hero is BTN :4h: :4c:
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.1, MP1 raises to $0.5, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.5, CO calls $0.5, Hero calls $0.5, SB calls $0.45, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.4

Flop: :2h: :3s: :5h: ($3.1, 6 players)
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 bets $2.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.5, SB folds, UTG+2 folds

Turn: :ad: ($8.1, 2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, MP1 calls $3

River: :9c: ($14.1, 2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero goes all-in $4.67, MP1 folds

Final Pot: $18.77

Hero wins $18.07 ( won +$7.4 )
UTG+2 lost -$0.50
MP1 lost -$6.00
CO lost -$0.50
SB lost -$0.50
MP3 lost -$0.50

Fresh table, no history on villain except he didn't play the first 20 hands, had limped in once or twice before this hand and this was his first raise. Based on that I figured him probably TAG and possibly solid.

At MP1 raise I was thinking about implieds. He had the stack, but I wasn't certain I'd get enough of it to justify a flat call - but when more people came into the hand this became a non-issue. Pre-flop flat for set value.

His flop bet is about 85% pot sized and I'm putting him pretty solidly on an overpair AA-JJ. I don't think he'd c-bet OOP with overcards in a 6-way pot.

The way I see it I have possibly 10 good outs. Some As have to be in question as they may have been dealt to other people (including villain). I happened to be looking at pot odds earlier today and remembered that 10 outs if clean was near 40% chance to win by river. I figured a call from me would be likely to see him check the turn, giving me the option of a free card - as in maybe seeing both turn and river for the price of a call here.

Assuming 10 clean outs and a free river card my pot odds needed to make the call good would be 1.86 to 1, which is about a 116% PSB (overbet). If it is assumed that there is no free card my pot odds needed are 3.7, which is at about 37% PSB. If calling for the turn card only and no implied odds it would be a clear fold. I decided that I'd have a 50/50 chance of getting the free card, and a decent chance of a value bet being called if I hit any of my 10 outs, so I called. I didn't plan the $3 bet exactly and actually thought my implieds were for what I had behind, but if I had...

Call $2.5 to win $5.6 + $3 is 3.44 to 1 pot odds.

Ok, so if I had assumed to win $3 in value bets if I hit my hand my effective pot odds for turn only would be 3.44 to 1, where 3.7 to 1 would be required for turn only to be profitable.
This is balanced by there being a pretty good chance of a free card if I miss turn.
This is counter-balanced by 4 of the 10 outs not being clean - others could have had aces.

I did assume I'd get more than just the $3 - I thought I'd get my full stack doubled up which was an additional $4.67. I didn't know he was capable of this fold (which I guess could have been easy if he was c-betting unpaired overcards.

Given the chance of a free card, implied odds from value betting if I made my hand and despite that 4 of my outs were not clean I think I made a +EV call. Am I deluding myself and just a station?

What occurs to me is that the free card (though he did check) is actually not that likely - he's likely to have fired a second barrel on a blank turn. Was I considering this too possible? Was I considering a push from me being called too possible?