5/10 - squeezed pot bet sizing

-This is probably a reasonably standard spot but Alexos and I were debating about bet sizing on the flop
-One side of the argument is to bet bigger (190-200ish) and take the hand down a fair amount and get shoved on by overpairs (but we're 34:66 against overpairs) so we have odds to call
-Other side of the argument is to bet smaller (130ish) (still with the plan of calling shoves) but in this case inducing shoves from overcards potentially. But now we don't have direct odds to call against overpairs.
-Its unclear in this spot whether betting big will actually get any better hands to fold (66, 5x,7x) that might otherwise call a smaller bet


Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1749.75
CO: $1055
Button: $1208.42
SB: $620.81
Hero: $973

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with :4s: :5s:
2 folds, Button raises to $30, SB calls, Hero raises to $108, Button folds, SB calls.

Flop: :3h: :5c: :7d: ($246, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets XXX, villain has $512 behind

just bet like 175. dont put yourself in dumb spots vs donks.. hes prob never shoving naked overs, and you dont want to put yourself in a spot where youre considering folding this hand.

I would play this hand on the flop the same way as I do with AA so I would bet about $170. I don't have Pokerstove at work so I'm not quite sure what I would do if I would get shoved on.

i dont see how anything is better than betting small like 140 then shoving turn. we're not folding even if we have to call a large bet so we might as well allow villain to think we're weak while still getting money in. he'll probably call flop and fold turn then more than we think

i didnt look at the hand, but i see a flaw in your reasoning regarding bet sizing and presumptive fold equity. if u decide to bet less your villains raising range is generally going to be wider, therefore even though you won't be getting "correct" odds to call the times he has an overpair, since you are in effect widening his range, the margin moves in your favor as u will be inducing bluffs more often from weaker hands.

just somethin to think about.

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Originally Posted by Marshall28

i didnt look at the hand, but i see a flaw in your reasoning regarding bet sizing and presumptive fold equity. if u decide to bet less your villains raising range is generally going to be wider, therefore even though you won't be getting "correct" odds to call the times he has an overpair, since you are in effect widening his range, the margin moves in your favor as u will be inducing bluffs more often from weaker hands.

just somethin to think about.

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Yah Marshall, this was the same logic I had as I was the one arguing in favour of betting smaller. Since we WANT to encourage worse hands than ours to push (overs) and all the better hands than ours will shove regardless of if we bet small or if we bet big.

I don't really expect to be flat called much on this board even if i bet small, I'd imagine most hands will be shoving or folding in villain's spot (given his stack size).

i think your raise size pre is bad

The pot size makes it really hard to bet a size that will allow you to make a good double barrel. I bet like 135 or whatever the minimum i can bet to get this guy to fold AK, AJ, KJ type of hands, then hope a A, K, or Q comes on the turn and shove that shit ( i think though with the pot size, you can't really do anything but double barrel shove the turn no matter what the card).

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Originally Posted by gabe

i think your raise size pre is bad

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that

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Originally Posted by Massimo

I bet like 135 or whatever the minimum i can bet to get this guy to fold AK, AJ, KJ type of hands

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I guess this is kind of the point I'm getting at. We don't want him folding these hands, do we? I mean I guess i'm looking at this hand right now in isolation, but yes for metagame we'd like to make a bet that would fold overcards, for all the times we have air here.

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

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Originally Posted by gabe

i think your raise size pre is bad

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that

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Yah its too small given that I'm OOP. I shoulda popped it to 120-130ish.

I don't mind this size if i'm in position and squeezing though. I want ppl calling and playing a 3-bet pot OOP.

yea i make it 140 pre

and the its easy to paly

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Originally Posted by griffey24

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

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Originally Posted by gabe

i think your raise size pre is bad

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that

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Yah its too small given that I'm OOP. I shoulda popped it to 120-130ish.

I don't mind this size if i'm in position and squeezing though. I want ppl calling and playing a 3-bet pot OOP.

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Position is not very relevant when the pots so big you can only make one bet.