Ive changed, and its not for the better...help

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03-26-2008, 12:32 PM
jasons0147

Ive changed, and its not for the better...help

So chrisbcritter started watching my operation and I had seen a EV graph that I posted. He had noticed that for the last 40k hands something has changed in my game. Ive pulled all of my position stats for the winning period and for the period where I am not winning as much. Can anyone tell me for these stats posted if there is something obvious that has changed, and how the hell I correct it.

Quote:

EV GRAPH of every 25NL hand Ive played

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o...k25NLhands.jpg

Quote:

First 23k Hands

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o...sgoodpoker.jpg

Quote:

First 23k Hands Position Stats

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o...erposition.jpg

Quote:

Last 40k Hands

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o...ndbadpoker.jpg

Quote:

Last 40k Hands Position Stats

http://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o...erposition.jpg
03-26-2008, 01:07 PM
Galapogos

Wow, hard to tell from your stats. I'd say it looks like you're just going through a rough patch but doesn't that Poker EV indicate you're running hot in all-in pots? But those graphs re notorious for not being worth any serious information as so many factors skew their results.

Review your sessions when you're done playing and look at what pots are losing you all your money. Then post those hands to see what you're doing wrong.

Every hand you post doesn't have to be for stacks to make it worth posting.
03-26-2008, 02:08 PM
jasons0147

How bout this one? Villan is 49/13 over 50 Hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Hero ($31.10)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($16.70)
UTG ($25.40)
MP ($26.15)

Preflop: Hero is Button with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/8c.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/8d.gif.
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, MP calls $1.

Flop: ($2.85) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2s.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/qh.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/4h.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $2.5, MP calls $2.50.

Turn: ($7.85) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2c.gif (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($7.85) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/5s.gif (2 players)
MP bets $3, Hero ????

Final Pot: $13.85
03-26-2008, 02:19 PM
dev

We have to call here I think. It's a busted flush draw or 66-77 enough of the time to call given like 3.6:1.

About the stats, they're nearly identical. Most spots where they're not identical, they got 'better'. The only thing I see that doesn't go with this trend is your turn/river aggression. Are you getting value from your good hands with v-bets on the turn and river?
03-26-2008, 02:33 PM
jasons0147

I think this could be an issue of mine, I flop TPTK make my typical CBET, and then feel lost on the turn.

Villan is 48/0 over 75 Hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

UTG ($19.40)
MP ($41.25)
Button ($35.30)
SB ($13.25)
Hero ($25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/as.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/kd.gif.
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, MP calls $1.

Flop: ($2.60) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/jh.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ac.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2.5, MP calls $2.50.

Turn: ($7.60) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/9d.gif (2 players)
Hero ???

Villan is 52/0 over 30 Hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

CO ($14.40)
Button ($7.85)
SB ($27.05)
Hero ($24.50)
UTG ($14.95)
MP ($22.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ah.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/kc.gif.
UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3, UTG folds, MP calls $2.25.

Flop: ($6.85) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ks.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/8h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/td.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $6, MP calls $6.

Turn: ($18.85) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/qd.gif (2 players)
Hero bets ???

Villan is 33/25 over 77 Hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

BB ($25.25)
UTG ($25.35)
Hero ($24.15)
CO ($17)
Button ($46.45)
SB ($9.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ad.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/qs.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.10) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/3d.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7s.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ac.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, Button calls $3, BB folds.

Turn: ($9.10) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2c.gif (2 players)
Hero bets ???
03-26-2008, 02:38 PM
dev

The first two are simple: keep betting until the calling station tells you you're beat. Maybe check a river if it's really really scary.

The last hand is a little trickier because the villain is pretty agro, some post-flop stats would help here. Still, I want to keep betting. I think I go 1/2 pot for pot control.
03-26-2008, 02:59 PM
griffey24

I really don't think any of those hands that you posted should be tricky at all.

hand 1 - bet, bet and either c/c river (if you think he's drawing) or bet river

hand 2 - this turn card really sucks, esp since its a 3bet pot. The pot is too big though so I shove. QJ is OESD now with a pair, KJ is top pair with OESD and even JJ is OESD. These hands might call a shove... and you're beat by KQ/QQ now but nothing you can do.

hand 3 - this board is so dry, just bet bet bet.

Really all of the hands are just standard barrels until villain gives you a reason to think you're behind.
03-26-2008, 03:03 PM
jasons0147

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

I really don't think any of those hands that you posted should be tricky at all.

Just checking my line...I did fire 1/2 to full on both turn and river in all 3 hands. Any thoughts on my stats griffey?
03-26-2008, 03:26 PM
JinxT4

Hands 1 & 3 I just keep betting (unless the flush draw completes in hand 1). Hand 2 that turn kinda sucks (I agree with griffey24) & I don't think I fold.
03-26-2008, 03:52 PM
Ash256

Hands 1 and 3 - just think about what kind of range villain will call/raise/fold if you bet.
03-26-2008, 09:18 PM
meeloche

Tptk = Bet Bet Bet 99% of the time, in these cases.
03-26-2008, 09:50 PM
nutsinho

what griffey said. also playing 15/12 is just flat out wrong
03-26-2008, 10:04 PM
Galapogos

Quote:

Originally Posted by nutsinho

what griffey said. also playing 15/12 is just flat out wrong

At 25NL? Pshhhhhhhhhhhhh. It's fine if that's all he's comfortable playing. Looks like he's trying to open up his game anyway.
03-26-2008, 11:09 PM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasons0147

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

I really don't think any of those hands that you posted should be tricky at all.

Just checking my line...I did fire 1/2 to full on both turn and river in all 3 hands. Any thoughts on my stats griffey?

I actually like your last 40k hands stats more than your previous set of stats. Its good that you're opening up your range more from most positions, and raising more in LP.

I think your att. to steal could stand to be a bit higher (at least around 25% or something if not more).

Your vpip from the blinds is really low which may not be bad (better too low, than too high). You might be losing value on some hands that you are folding, and instead could be/should be 3-betting button stealers (who's range is wide) and winning on the flop.
03-27-2008, 01:07 AM
nutsinho

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Quote:

Originally Posted by nutsinho

what griffey said. also playing 15/12 is just flat out wrong

At 25NL? Pshhhhhhhhhhhhh. It's fine if that's all he's comfortable playing. Looks like he's trying to open up his game anyway.

It looks like he's taking poker pretty seriously and trying to get better. If this is the case, he needs to do things that aren't "comfortable". One of them is playing a ton more hands and learning how to operate in marginal spots because his opponents are terrible and there is a lot more money to be won from them.
03-27-2008, 01:43 AM
jasons0147

Quote:

Originally Posted by nutsinho

It looks like he's taking poker pretty seriously and trying to get better. If this is the case, he needs to do things that aren't "comfortable". One of them is playing a ton more hands and learning how to operate in marginal spots because his opponents are terrible and there is a lot more money to be won from them.

I do take poker seriously, heck for the last two months Ive been able to pay half my rent with poker winnings. I also would like to open up, and Ive tried before but I seem to find myself spewing chips everywhere. Is there certain types of hands I should be doing this with? Should I be opening up in just late position or early position as well?

Nutsinho, I dont know if you remember my post Im getting pwned at 25NL? Its becuase of FTR that I became aggressive, and I now have a good feel for that type of play. Whats my next step? Where do I go from here?

I could easily move up to 50NL but I would like to be beating 25NL at a killer winrate over a giant sample before I do move up.
03-27-2008, 10:00 AM
nutsinho

at first just try opening up in position. your att. to steal is 22.67 over last 40k...it should be more like 40%. and this doesnt mean you have to double barrel or even cbet every flop. when you open up, youre going to find yourself with less showdown value, so you want to bluff more, so its easy to spew. you need to consider what part of your opps range is actually going to fold if you bet, and what your bet is going to accomplish. Like if you have ace-rag and end up flopping no pair no draw, there's going to be very little reason to bet ever because most of your opponents are loose-passive, meaning theyre calling every hand with more equity than ace high, folding the majority of hands with less equity than ace high, and wont try to bluff you oop even if you show weakness.