$25NL - Can I call this push?

Printable View

03-26-2008, 12:51 AM
GatorJH

$25NL - Can I call this push?

Just sat down at table so no reads at all on villian. Is this an easy call or an easy fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($7.25)
UTG ($31.10)
UTG+1 ($44.75)
MP1 ($36.80)
MP2 ($15.75)
Hero ($22.90)
Button ($22.90)
SB ($30.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.35) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.75, Hero raises to $3.5, MP1 raises to $35.8, Hero ????
03-26-2008, 01:25 AM
BankItDrew

If you're going to raise this hand here preflop, make it 5xbb or more.

In retrospect we should be calling this flop bet, because of the 3bet. But on the other hand, it's not too too often that villain is folding a high % of the time when we raise like this.

Assuming we have 14 outs and villain doesn't have a set or straight, we are winning this hand about 48% of the time. I think it's highly unlikely though that villain has less than TPTK.

I don't even think hitting a ten is good here. So you're looking at 9 outs, I fold.
03-26-2008, 03:11 AM
dev

you're getting like 1.3:1 with a superdraw... I think I call instantly because of the drawy board and then a second later start praying. There are a lot of combo-draws that can make this play, I like a call.
03-26-2008, 06:12 AM
jimmy44

This is tough spot ...
You're getting 1.5-1 in pot odds so you need to have 40% equity.
With 9 outs you don't have, but I think if in villain's hands you can add AA/KK then the call might be good. Can someone check this in pokerstove? (I don't have it here at the moment)
Possible villain's hands:
77/88/TT/J9cc/65cc/AA/KK
03-26-2008, 07:03 AM
Hawk

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmy44

This is tough spot ...
You're getting 1.5-1 in pot odds so you need to have 40% equity.
With 9 outs you don't have, but I think if in villain's hands you can add AA/KK then the call might be good. Can someone check this in pokerstove? (I don't have it here at the moment)
Possible villain's hands:
77/88/TT/J9cc/65cc/AA/KK

good math!

Board: 7c 8c Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.973% 42.54% 00.43% 8844 90.00 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 57.027% 56.59% 00.43% 11766 90.00 { KK+, TT, 88-77, Jc9c, 6c5c }
03-26-2008, 08:32 PM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by dev

I think I call instantly because of the drawy board and then a second later start praying.

That is what I did. Villian actually had T7o (and neither one was a club), I missed the turn and river and promptly reloaded.
03-26-2008, 08:36 PM
spoonitnow

I think that this should be a call on the flop. The huge pot odds we are getting makes this massively +EV without having to complicate the decision.

Edit: I meant that we should call the bet, not the shove.
03-27-2008, 02:01 AM
Fnord

I play it the same and gamble here but am not happy about it. Call vs Raise really depends on what you think of the weak bet into the pot from this particular player.
03-27-2008, 09:40 AM
GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

I play it the same and gamble here but am not happy about it. Call vs Raise really depends on what you think of the weak bet into the pot from this particular player.

So it sounds like, barring a read, a call on the flop may be the best line. Then when a blank hits the turn fold to any significant bet?
03-28-2008, 05:17 AM
JinxT4

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Quote:

Originally Posted by dev

I think I call instantly because of the drawy board and then a second later start praying.

That is what I did. Villian actually had T7o (and neither one was a club), I missed the turn and river and promptly reloaded.

Isn't the Tc in your hand and the 7c on the board? =P

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJH

So it sounds like, barring a read, a call on the flop may be the best line. Then when a blank hits the turn fold to any significant bet?

His weak underbet on the flop just makes me feel like I have to raise (although I'm not expecting to be 3bet AI). So I'm also curious as to whether calling instead of raising really is a better course of action.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

If you're going to raise this hand here preflop, make it 5xbb or more.

In retrospect we should be calling this flop bet, because of the 3bet. But on the other hand, it's not too too often that villain is folding a high % of the time when we raise like this.

Assuming we have 14 outs and villain doesn't have a set or straight, we are winning this hand about 48% of the time. I think it's highly unlikely though that villain has less than TPTK.

I don't even think hitting a ten is good here. So you're looking at 9 outs, I fold.

I never thought of it this way. I always see "tp + flush draw = fistpump AI" & think getting it AI always = +EV, with my hand being a coinflip vs most hands excluding sets. Then when I see I was indeed up against a set & realize I just had a flush draw b/c my 2pair/trip outs weren't good I think "oh," but don't learn from it. Your post makes me realize that me doing this is something that I need to fix (& that "pair + flush draw" isn't the nuts).