Instamucking the Kings?

Villain is very good sLAG reg (considering the environment) - Takes nice standard TAG lines, doesn't try to bluff the fish, good positional awareness. The only big leak I've found is that he calls 3bets with SCs.
He probably views me as sharp TAG who gives up on the turn a bit too much.

Player behind villain is a 52/3 who likes seeing turns.

27/20/3.7 over 500 odd hands.

My thoughts were that even if I do have enough equity a, he'll probs fold KQ (basically the only hand I beat) to a shove.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($211.60)
Hero ($106.65)
BTN ($100.00)
SB ($248.90)
BB ($386.50)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 6 players) Hero is CO :kd: :kh:
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.5, BTN calls $3.5, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: :qc: :jc: :5s: ($11.5, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $30, SB folds, Hero folds

Final Pot: $71.5

uh no i am not mucking, im shoving.

hes most likely raising his draws here, especially since you gave the impression he likes to play SC's. for 100bbs shove all day.

arr in

But guuuuuuuuuyth,

Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
42,570 evaluations, 43 hole card combos

Board: Qc Jc 5s

Wins Ties Equity
55.93% 0.16% 56.09% ( Ac2c-AcJc,KcTc,Tc8c,Kc9c,QJ,55,Tc9c,KQ(30),AQ(10) )
43.74% 0.16% 43.91% ( KdKh )

his range is still a lot wider than this imo.

not that it matters much but u left out 5xcc. perhaps a better line given this range is call and shove non Q,A,C turns, and c/f otherwise. i would definitely not fold this on flop though.

Any history on villain 3-betting you light? I think there usually are more SC's in villains range then you put into it.
I also think AQ raises this flop more than 10%, although he might be 3-betting it a fair amount preflop so your 10% could be good afterall ;).

But c'mon with 20:50 you can't fold....even against the somewhat tight range you put him on.

I agree on your problem on a flop shove being an overbet and not getting called often by way behind hands......but a shove is still +EV.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

not that it matters much but u left out 5xcc. perhaps a better line given this range is call and shove non Q,A,C turns, and c/f otherwise. i would definitely not fold this on flop though.

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This line at least does a lot better betsizing wise.

I'm not that sure I like c/f-ing Q turns....I guess it depends on how many FD's villain has and how often he'll bet them on a Q turn.
(Should we be betting a FD on a Q turn if we were villain)

It's an interesting line tho, imo.

calling 3bets with scs isn't a leak when doing it for the right purposes

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ash256

But guuuuuuuuuyth,

Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
42,570 evaluations, 43 hole card combos

Board: Qc Jc 5s

Wins Ties Equity
55.93% 0.16% 56.09% ( Ac2c-AcJc,KcTc,Tc8c,Kc9c,QJ,55,Tc9c,KQ(30),AQ(10) )
43.74% 0.16% 43.91% ( KdKh )

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If you push and villain always calls you are getting 1.66-1 in pot odds so you need 37.6% equity. You have to push.

BTW, you cannot include AcJc as Jc is on the board.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ash256

But guuuuuuuuuyth,

Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
42,570 evaluations, 43 hole card combos

Board: Qc Jc 5s

Wins Ties Equity
55.93% 0.16% 56.09% ( Ac2c-AcJc,KcTc,Tc8c,Kc9c,QJ,55,Tc9c,KQ(30),AQ(10) )
43.74% 0.16% 43.91% ( KdKh )

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is this how you weight the % likelyhood of holdings? do you just manually add (30) afterwards? interesting.

I would not shove here myself, but if you instafold this you aren't giving all your options enough thought, although folding is certainly not a bad choice here.

And WTF are you talking about jimmy?

So he has exactly QJ or 55 huh?

We're actually getting 1.36:1 on a shove if he always calls, we need 42%. It's still a +EV shove, but we're assuming a lot here. Since we're also assuming a rather narrow range, I like the shove.

Stop and go any non-C turn isn't such a bad idea either. I like it even if a Q comes.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bode

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ash256

But guuuuuuuuuyth,

Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
42,570 evaluations, 43 hole card combos

Board: Qc Jc 5s

Wins Ties Equity
55.93% 0.16% 56.09% ( Ac2c-AcJc,KcTc,Tc8c,Kc9c,QJ,55,Tc9c,KQ(30),AQ(10) )
43.74% 0.16% 43.91% ( KdKh )

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is this how you weight the % likelyhood of holdings? do you just manually add (30) afterwards? interesting.

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http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com ;)



nutsinho, I really like your line

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pocketfours

I would not shove here myself, but if you instafold this you aren't giving all your options enough thought, although folding is certainly not a bad choice here.

And WTF are you talking about jimmy?

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Suppose we push and villan never folds.
Pot on flop is $50 + villains $66.5. If we push we need to add $86.5 for a pot of $116.5. Odds are 1.35 - 1 (ops, did a mistake on my calcs before :-(). So we need to have at least 42.5% of equity.
Taking Ash256 estimation, this is at least a push. I don't think we can fold here.

I would shove it in.

Ya shove. Sooo many draws hit this board and AK missed (on which he might put you).

you re in a good spot equity-wise vs lots of his draws cuz the K's take away 2 of his outs. Either shove of call and lead a safe turn.

Good players will own you though usually when you don't just shove so I'd shove.