ARGHHH! what to do?

PokerStars Game #16054705615: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/03/17 - 19:56:14 (ET)
Table 'Shao' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: BillyJoeBobb ($6.95 in chips)
Seat 2: diabloiij ($17.35 in chips)
Seat 3: dashind ($9.95 in chips)
Seat 4: fl_chica ($5.90 in chips)
Seat 5: Harveyman ($17.95 in chips)
Seat 7: Aprile151 ($5.45 in chips)
Seat 8: haddy50 ($4 in chips)
Seat 9: kyle XyX ($2 in chips)
fl_chica: posts small blind $0.05
Harveyman: posts big blind $0.10
GooDSourD: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to diabloiij [As Ah]
Aprile151: folds
haddy50: folds
kyle XyX: folds
BillyJoeBobb: folds
diabloiij: raises $0.20 to $0.30
dashind: folds
fl_chica is disconnected
fl_chica has timed out while disconnected
fl_chica: folds
fl_chica is sitting out
Harveyman: calls $0.20
*** FLOP *** [Kh Ks 4h]
Harveyman: bets $0.40
diabloiij: calls $0.40
*** TURN *** [Kh Ks 4h] [5c]
Harveyman: bets $3.20
diabloiij: folds
Harveyman collected $1.40 from pot
fl_chica is connected
fl_chica has returned
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1.45 | Rake $0.05
Board [Kh Ks 4h 5c]
Seat 1: BillyJoeBobb folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: diabloiij folded on the Turn
Seat 3: dashind (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: fl_chica (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Harveyman (big blind) collected ($1.40)
Seat 7: Aprile151 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: haddy50 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: kyle XyX folded before Flop (didn't bet)

anyone play trip Ks like this? i have no clue what's going on with the 2x pot size bet.

first time i see him over bet the pot like this. he seems normal with my other raises.

Considerations from a newbie - take with a grain of salt:
You're both starting the hand at 180bb which affects his pre-flop implied odds to put more hands in his range (particularly all pocket pairs)

Depending how aggressive he is AK can be in his range. (If aggressive he could have raised AK.) Depending on how loose he is any (suited) A or K can be in his range (also depending on how he perceives you - do you steal blind or PF raise, c-bet on flop a lot in this position? Is he a victim to previous aggression?).

His flop-bet is .4 into a .65 pot (OOP) and when you flat-call it he may be putting you on a drawing hand (flush) or a lower pocket pair. I don't think he would read you on AA. His flop-bet doesn't give me that much information, except that he's willing to show a little aggression. He may or may not have remembered that you were the pre-flop aggressor. He could have done that bet with any two hearts in the range, or any low pocket pair or any 4 in addition to the trips/house options. Not that I can really see how he'd be holding a single four.

If you've done PF raise from this position before followed by a c-bet post flop when you're in position he may think you're blind stealing and doing this with total air or a compromised hand. He may have decided on the flop that rather than let you represent a scary hand he'll represent it, and when you call him he worries and suddenly doesn't want to see a showdown - his overbet may be a pure bluff to get you to fold. The flop-bet may be a semi-bluff if he is himself on a drawing hand.

If he had the 44 or the Kx would he have played this way?
Pre-flop, sure.
On the flop - not so sure. Would he have tried to check to lead you into aggression? Especially if you've done c-bet in this situation before he might have done that (unless he hasn't discovered check-raises). Maybe he'd play like this with Kx to not let you draw to a flush (and then overbet on the turn feeling the mad fear of the flush coming on the river). 44 he'd likely have played even more cool. Maybe he played either of those hands and was just greedy for a bigger payout.

Mfirst thought on reading the hand was that fold is a safe play - no point throwing away your chips to what could be a poorly played hand that you can't beat (or only have two outs to beat anyway).

The more I think about it, though, the more I think that he's responding to blind stealing and c-bet aggression and is playing something other than trips or house - and panicking, trying to intimidate you when you stay in the hand. If he was playing a flush draw it's possibly a call - if you're ready to fold it when a heart comes on the river. If he was playing any other pair maybe even re-raise is in order.

He could also have been playing 55 with pretty exactly this betting pattern.

Anyone else without a clue want to try to crack this one, or someone with more insight want to let us know how it's done?

raise more pre-flop
re-raise his flop bet, to $1.70 or something, fold to a re-raise.

On the turn he's betting twice pot, looks like trying to get the chance to get your whole (big) stacks involved on the river. He likes his hand, isn't folding, and likely has a king. I fold here as played... Yuck.

thank you very much erpel, for your detail analysis. well, I don't think he was trying to catch me stealing his blind, because in previous hands i cracked 2 short stacks with qulity starting hands. and i don't remembering myself stealing blinds alot. cause i think at this limit it's very hard to effectively steal blind cause ppl call too much.

one more thing. he been playing ABC poker since i sat down. c-bet. 2/3 to pot. one thing he does, he raises draws.

and since his bet are confusing and out of the ordinary. plus at the end of the day all i have is a pair and the stacks are deep. therefore the fold.

Oh don't take my words as analysis at this point - it's more the ramblings of a newbie trying to understand how to analyze a hand and hoping people will tell me what I do wrong ;)

If he's been playing solid poker and you haven't been aggressively stealing then I'd agree - he probably has a solid hand and wants to get his money's worth and fold is the only play I'd consider.

In terms of daven's comments:
Personally PF I'd maybe have a .4 raise rather than a .3 raise - are you suggesting something dramatically outside that range when you say raise more pre-flop?
Let me see if I understand your recommnendation on raising on the flop-bet correctly. My thinking goes along these lines:
The majority of the hands he'd have played the flop-bet with you'll have beaten and you need more information - the re-raise on the flop should reveal if he's holding a monster in which case you can gracefully bow out. If he's not holding something good he's almost certain to fold and it's good value to take it down on this street before he improves whatever he's holding. That said I'm not sure how I would read him if he calls a re-raise. What would he be holding then? 5h4h? JJ? Or would he also call a re-raise with trips or full house hoping to get you to put more money in on the turn? Trips I don't think I see - he'd be too scared of the drawing hand and would probably re-raise to price you out of the hand. 44 I could see calling also.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

re-raise his flop bet, to $1.70 or something

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is your raise for value or what?