Taking shots and chasing whales!

My BR has been doing pretty well lately because I have been on a massive heater. I decided to chase a fish up at 100nl and this hand happened.

Villain in the hand is no the fish, he is running 20/15/2 with a decent amount of aggression in late position. I have 3 bet him probably about 2 times in 60 hands and he has folded every single time. To be honest at the time he seemed kind of nitty. Then this happens.


$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($191.00)
CO ($87.45)
BTN ($304.20)
Hero ($149.50)
BB ($115.65)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 5 players) Hero is SB :qs: :qd:
2 folds, BTN raises to $3.5, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, BTN calls $10.5

Flop: :9h: :3d: :2d: ($29, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

Turn: :7d: ($69, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN goes all-in $270.2,

115 for hero to call. At the time I was checking the turn with the intention of calling for pot control. When he shoves for 2x the pot it makes me stop and wonder.

Well, if guy has any sort of knowledge of the game, he might put you on a high pocket pair because of your reraise. His call after suggests to me that he might also have had a pp. There is also the possibility that he had something like AKd or AXd and the turn made his flush. That seems less likely though as many players would probably want to make extra bits of money off of you here rather than hope you call a shove.

There is the possibility that he has TT or JJ and you're way ahead, because you have to guess that KK or AA pushes back at you pf. But what seems most likely to me is that he has some sort of set made on the flop, perhaps 9s, and based on the assumption you have an overpair is afraid of being beat by a flush on the river.

This is all awfully speculative and stuff. I could be way off, I'm just taking a crack at it. Bottom line is I'd probably fold up here without any sort of read.

NEVER, check this turn. If your the Villain, what range would you put yourself on with that line?

That would be bet/call wouldn't it?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

NEVER, check this turn.

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I disagree

bet/call here for me. $46 seems like a good turn bet size.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

NEVER, check this turn.

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I disagree

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at a 100nl game, i disagree w/ your disagreement. theory aside at 100nl, this turn is autobet to commit.