Question on EV(beat a horse dead)
Ok so, here is the hand it was posted in spoons thread on compaining about bad beats. And it got me thinking.
Say this hand was the other way around and I reraised allin on the turn. Villan would have to call 6.60 to win 13.75, which since he is on a flush draw and has an over card is +ev right?
But as played it is also +ev for me to call, his push is +ev aswell?
How can it be +ev for both of us? Or am I way off?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
saw flop|saw showdown
Hero ($10.65)
Button ($12.20)
SB ($4.90)
BB ($4.40)
UTG ($12.80)
MP ($10.10)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
1 fold, MP raises to $0.4, Hero calls $0.40, 3 folds.
Flop: ($0.95) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
MP bets $0.7, Hero raises to $3.1, MP raises to $9.7, Hero calls $6.60.
Turn: ($20.35) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
River: ($20.35) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Final Pot: $20.35
Results in white below:
MP has 9c Ac (flush, ace high).
Hero has Kh Qs (two pair, kings and threes).
Outcome: MP wins $20.35.
Re: Question on EV(beat a horse dead)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProZachNation
How can it be +ev for both of us? Or am I way off?
In general, it can be +EV for both of you if both of you have the chance to make good hands simultaneously, and are both willing to stack off when the other one hits.
In the hand in question, it's positive EV for both of you because of the dead money in the pot and the basic coin flip race you'll be in.
Villain has 12 outs, so he's got about a 48% chance of hitting an out by the river. Since there's $4.75 in the pot when he shoves, and he's betting $8.55 to win $11.50, he's got the correct odds. Same for you, slightly ahead with chance to make more than double your remaining chips on a coin flip.
