Somebody help me fix this man

This person can't get his head round luck/skill in long term poker. Help me prove myself right :(
I am Nick, he is Ryan, in this dialogue.

Nick says:
luck is a factor, skill is a factor
Nick says:
as much as you will disagree, luck does always always even out, or it comes very very close to even in the long term
Nick says:
if you have skill, that won't even out, you will always have skill
Nick says:
so in the long term you will profit
Nick says:
and that is why poker is a hugely profitable game for those that are good at it
Ryan says:
mathmeticains view, luck doesnt always even out :)
Nick says:
no it doesn't
Nick says:
but as time goes on it will get closer and closer to even, statistically
Ryan says:
and yeh, obv skill does take a role in poker, otherwise any1 could win shizzle
Nick says:
but as time goes on it will get closer and closer to even, statistically
Ryan says:
but, for example, u may appear to be lucky n get a pair of aces, but at same time, all ur oponents could fold and then u win like fuck all :)
Ryan says:
erm
Ryan says:
mathmatically
Ryan says:
u could lose 1000 out of 1000 hands
Nick says:
yes, but work out the probability of that einstein
Ryan says:
its the same as 500/500 split
Ryan says:
einstein :)
Nick says:
basically if you flip a coin 3 times it could come up 100/0 or 66/33. if you flip a coing a million times it will, and i say will come up about 50.1/49.9
Nick says:
i know that mathematically it might not
Nick says:
but get real, it basically isn't going to happen
Ryan says:
i disagree
Ryan says:
:)
Nick says:
and there was a fucking good website i found a couple of years ago that explained why this is the case
Nick says:
but i've lost it now so i can't link you
Ryan says:
look at it this way
Ryan says:
u havea coin
Ryan says:
50% heads 50% tails
Ryan says:
ok
Ryan says:
lands head on first flip
Ryan says:
had 0.5 chance of tht
Ryan says:
lands head again
Ryan says:
had 0.5 chance of tht
Ryan says:
lands head again
Ryan says:
had 0.5 chance of tht
Ryan says:
now
Ryan says:
we go again
Ryan says:
first time lands heads
Ryan says:
0.5 chance
Ryan says:
then lands taiks
Ryan says:
0.5 chance
Ryan says:
etc etc
Ryan says:
equals the same :)
Nick says:
yes, i don't have a clue how luck evens out and i wish i knew where this website was that mathematically explains it, but it does. it quite simply does
Nick says:
and i understand that you don't accept that because there is a small chance it won't
Nick says:
like, i had a pokertracker database (thing that keeps a history of every hand i've ever played) which i'd saved 1,000 hands into, ish
Nick says:
in those thousand hands i did not have pocket aces once
Nick says:
the statistical chance of getting dealt pocket aces is once every 221 hands
Nick says:
and i didn't get it in a thousand
Nick says:
so its once in infinity hands for that database
Nick says:
my main database at the time had about 650,000 hands in it
Nick says:
and i worked out the percentage of getting aces, because i used to think the same way as you
Nick says:
and fractionally it came to one in every 220.91 hands
Nick says:
so i worked out a few more and they were only a couple of decimal points out as well
Nick says:
luck always evens out
Ryan says:
yes
Ryan says:
majority of time
Ryan says:
it evens out out
Ryan says:
but im saying
Ryan says:
there is just a greater MATHMATICAL chance tht it couldnt
Ryan says:
so therfore
Ryan says:
u cannot assume tht it will
Nick says:
you sort of agree i think..
Nick says:
so if i am dealt 1 hand, the chance of it being aces is one in 221
Nick says:
if i am dealt a million hands, the chance of them all being aces is something like one in a few hundred trillion
Nick says:
and call me a gambling man, but i'm willing to assume that won't happen :)
Nick says:
and so far my assumptions have been right
Nick says:
its basic GCSE probablity here ryan, i remember it myself
Nick says:
those tree diagrams
Ryan says:
yeh
Ryan says:
see
Ryan says:
ur backing my point up here
Nick says:
well i think we agree, you're just on a different scale to me
Nick says:
in a million hands of poker, there is i would say about a 0.00001% chance that you will be dealt an irregular number of a specific hand over or under 3% of the norm
Nick says:
i'm not saying there's no chance
Nick says:
just a very very small chance
Nick says:
and i'm willing to assume that won't happen because the chance is so ridiculously small
Nick says:
once in about 30 lifetimes i will be proved wrong :)
Ryan says:
but at end of day
Ryan says:
there is no physical law on earth
Ryan says:
that stops tht from happening
Ryan says:
fo whilst it seems less likely
Ryan says:
or is less likely
Ryan says:
there is still that chance tht it could happen
Ryan says:
and therefore, you cant really rule out the fact that, if something like that were to happen, then skill can prevail
Nick says:
i never ruled out the fact at all
Ryan says:
because luck has just wankered you out of money basically
Ryan says:
:)
Nick says:
i've only said the chances of it are stupidly minute.
Nick says:
if a skilful player lost money due to negative variance over a period of a million hands
Nick says:
we're talking of the odds of that being unbelieveable
Nick says:
like one in a billion.
Nick says:
i'm not saying it won't happen
Nick says:
but there is a huge huge chance it won't :)
Ryan says:
look
Ryan says:
im going to bed
Ryan says:
because my hair smells of tinsel

nicks smart ryans not

Quote:

---

Ryan says:
u could lose 1000 out of 1000 hands
Ryan says:
its the same as 500/500 split

---

Explain to your friend that if you flip a coin 100 times, there's a greater chance of it landing on heads 99 times/tails 1 time than of it landing on heads 100 times.

do flips with him for money and then if he gets up request some odds to help even it out

ryan is wrong, because he used the word shizzle

no, no, no!

Under his argument any two cards can beat any two other cards. due to luck

Take out of a standard deck

4h, 4c
Jh,Th
Ad,Kc

Tell him you'll play him even money hot and cold. IE you both put in one dollar, spread 5 cards, flop, turn, river, and winner takes the dollar. To make it interesting, you'll put him in the drivers seat, he can take the first cards giving him the advantage. Therefore putting you in his seat. He can switch any time he wants. Tell him you're certain that the best hand will win out over time.


If he picks 44, go with JT
if he picks JT go with AK
if he picks AK go with 44
Suits matter.

Profit, a LOT. Keep him lulled into thinking that you're position is just running bad and you'll prove it to him you've just got to keep playing for money. Pray to god he also never figgures it out.

The angle? If you haven't already figgured it out... is that by forcing him to pick first, you can always pick the hand that is better statistically over the million or so hands.
(Yes JTs is better than 44 as LONG as the JT has the 44 suit dominated.)

how does something smell like tinsel? i thought thats just really thin stuff you put on christmas trees

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by flomo

ryan is wrong, because he used the word shizzle

---

i stopped reading after said word was used

oh lord! math in teh commune?

paging 'rilla


and btw, its all luck. some people are luckier.
tell him he's right, and make better use of your energy elsewhere.
case closed.

too long, i stopped about halfway. tell friend hes a dumb ass and your not going to waste your time explaining something so simplistic. tell him to flip a coin 1000000 times and see how close to 50/50 it is. Or run some kind of random number simulator a bunch of times and prove your point.

I can't believe I read all that.

Solution is play a game and take his monies.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by dwarfman

Ryan says:
im going to bed
Ryan says:
because my hair smells of tinsel

---

[x] hair smells like tinsel

microstakes v. macrostates ftw.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Quote:

---

Ryan says:
u could lose 1000 out of 1000 hands
Ryan says:
its the same as 500/500 split

---

Explain to your friend that if you flip a coin 100 times, there's a greater chance of it landing on heads 99 times/tails 1 time than of it landing on heads 100 times.

---

I'm serious. He seems to "know" enough about statistics that this one fact could undo the whole thing.

Then again he could just be another dumbass.

He gets the coin flip example wrong, but his basic argument is simply that no matter how likely a mathematical outcome, you can't guarantee it. The counter argument is that you DO build this concept into your poker play - why do you think we have bankroll management?

Your point is you agree there is inherent risk but you choose to take that risk because the balance between risk and reward is stacked in reward's favour. Ask your friend if he never crosses the road in case he gets run over.