would you make this call? 5rbuy LONG!!
so i've finished 46th 48th 51th and 101th in the 3 or 5 rebuys this week. seems like i'm either missing that run of cards that holds up at this point or something else.
last night i was 11th out of 190 or so in the 5 rebuy. i was being very aggressive... raising a wide range and generally avoiding monsters and taking the majority of pots i entered. i was fairly active... raising conectors and all pairs... along with premiums. i was playing very well... in 4.5 hours i was dealt KK once, and lost with it in a race with a short stack... he had QT. AA none, QQ none, JJ, none. i was dealt AK and AQ several times which helped. so most of my pots were in the smallish range once i got chips... i steadily built it up. i flopped a set of 8's to double from 30k and then completed on the small blind with a9sooted to an utg limper who had AK. iflopped two pair and stacked him to take me to 90k. i built the 90k to 150k. more background... in one spot early i doubled to the 30k on 7c 8c 3x flop holding 89off in position on the cutoff. mp2 had raised preflop and check raised me all in. i thought for a while and concluded that if he had a monster he would most likely bet out with a scarey board... this guy was a decent player i had watched for a while... and i felt he was solid enough to know he "should' bet out with a monster to make me pay to draw. the fact that he is check raising me now just felt like a play so i called... he had A5, no clubs and i held. so i'm feeling confident about my 'reads' and reasoning at this point... which has greatly improved over the last 7 weeks. (mostly playing the 4.40's, i've made 29 final tables, 13 top 3's, 8 wins, 1 of which was a $2 mtt with 1800 entrants). so at these micro stakes, i am doing well. my roi over the last 120 days is 70%... with 2k in profit. whoo ray me. :roll:
sorry for all the rambling... here's the hand.
i have 150k with blinds at 500/1000, i raise 3xbb 9Thearts in mp2... the button calls and the SB calls (he has 70k and is at best a mediocre player, typical 'speculative' fish who often suspects people are bluffing, he's not weak tight).
flop. 10c, Qc, 2x. button checks, SB checks, i bet 4800 into 11k... thinking everyone missed and i get take it down.... again very scarey board for AQ, KK, AA, JJ. no one re-raised me preflop so unless someone is slow playing, KK AA is unlikely... i just don't think either player would call with 22. so bu folds and sb calls quickly. i generally think a quick check call is usually a draw.
turn is a 5d. board now is Tc Qc 2x 5d. SB checks again... and i check (which was a mistake in hindsight).
river is a Jd. the SB waits 2 seconds and shoves for his last 43k.
i thought about this for a while. i often catch these kind of players bluffing a missed FD when another scare card hits the river... like Tc Qc 2x 5d 5h. i showed weakness on the turn by checking behind. if he made some kind of monster hand... a set, or a river straight... why the hell would he shove... i'm obviously not calling... and he gets no value out of his monster hand. being that he is a speculative type player who may hold onto AK (maybe i would too depending), there is a chance he hit his straight. but the fact that i showed weakness on the turn makes this river shove VERY suspicious to me. wouldn't i bet top pair on the turn? my time bank went down to 35 seconds and i folded. DAMN!!
i didn't consider this point at the time which i now think is very very important. if i call and i'm wrong my stack goes down to an average stack.. M of 20. if i'm right and i call.... i stack him and my stack is 235k... top 5 with 190 left... 2hours or so till final 3 tables. i did NOT think about this is factor in the value of calling. if i had, i woulda called. is this VERY important to consider at this point in the tourney? i folded cuz i figured i could keep building my stack like i had been... ya never know what might happen 5 hands later... i could flop the nuts with 79 or wake up with AA.
sorry for the long post. i like feedback on the overall situation. especially char? johnny? and you other experienced, winning, MTT guys... (who i can't think of but i know are around here).
srry for the long post... thanks for your reading and feedback.
