Squeeze plays strat (possible tl;dr)

Well, I made an eV calc for squeeze plays on full ring tables. It´s the first eV calc I´ve made on my own, so be careful with the math. It´s probably nothing new to most players here, but might give some insight to the more unexperienced players. If mods think, this should better be posted in BC, please move.

Please comment and discuss, even this is nothing new to you. Beside the possibilty of contributing something useful, I wrote this to practice "thinking poker", b/c becoming a thinking player is my ukltimate goal.

I haven´t searched the forums nor the web for articles about it, so the following content is potentially worthless.

We´re assuming a 100NL full ring table, active players w/ 100BB stacks.

There´s a raise from MP1, std TAG with PFR >8, to 4BB and one or two caller in HJ/CO/BTN with VPIP>18.

We´re OTB/SB/BB. I´m treating those 3 position the same way for a simple reason: If we 3bet OTB opponent will assign a wider range to us, but can´t open up too much, b/c he will be oop. If we 3bet from the blinds, villian may open up a bit, b/c he will have postion on us, but cant open up too much, b/c 3bet ranges from the blinds are usually pretty tight.


MP1´s opening range is something like 66+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs for a total of 94 combinations

HJ/CO/BTN´s calling range is 22-TT, 78s+, JTo-KQo, ATs-AJs, AQo for a total of 134 combinations, assuming he´d 3bet anything above that range himself

Our standard 3betting range is, depending on style, JJ+, AK, AQs, which has 56% equity against MP1´s range.

Now, with two caller, there´s 13.5BB in the pot and we raise to 16BB, laying 2.5:1 immediate and 8:1 implied odds, we probably fold out anything but JJ+, AK and AQs.
Note that these hands aren´t in our callers ranges, we assume our HJ/CO/BTN aren´t prone to slowplay premiums preflop.

This means, we fold out 50 combinations or 53% of MP1´s hands for an immediate profit of 13.5BB. The remaining 47% villian calls/raises with a range against which our standard range has 50% equity.

For the sake of simplicity we ignore the times where one caller overcalls our 3bet and changes our equity drastically. (an overcaller with 55-77, JTs has 25% equity. I love pstove)


Let´s see how far we can expand our range to make our 3bet 0ev:

We assume MP1 4bets KK+,12 of the remaining 44 combinations or 12.7% of his total hands, leaving 34.3% where he calls w/ JJ-QQ, AK,AQs.

In case villian 4bets we obv shove KK+ for 0eV and fold anything else for a net loss of 16BB

If MP1 calls, we see a flop with a pot of (16+16+4+4+1.5)BB = 41.5BB against a range of JJ-QQ, AK, AQs


eV = 0.53*13.5BB - 0.127*16BB + 0.343*X*41.5 (!)= 0; where "X" is our equity if called

(I ignore bets on subsequent rounds, b/c it´s getting too complicated and my head is already asploding)

--> eV = .53*13.5BB - .127*16BB + .343*X*41.5BB (!)= 0

5.123 = 14.2345X

X = .36 or 36%

Means our 3betting range needs 36% equity if called to let us break even on this squeeze.


Now play around with Pstove:


39% equity

6,270,457,248 games 0.005 secs 1,254,091,449,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.317% 58.86% 01.46% 3690848964 91279962.00 { KK-JJ, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.683% 38.23% 01.46% 2397048360 91279962.00 { 55+, AQs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo, JTo }


37% equity

9,195,072,480 games 0.001 secs 9,195,072,480,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.919% 60.85% 02.07% 5595209948 190279892.00 { KK-JJ, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 37.081% 35.01% 02.07% 3219302748 190279892.00 { 55+, AQs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo+, KQo, QJo, JTo, T9o }