Who pushes the river?

Opponent is very loose preflop but is tough postflop taking tricky lines also bluffs frequently.

- Lampard89 sitting in seat 1 with $2650.00 [Dealer]
- sportcafet sitting in seat 2 with $11895.74
- kalleankpank sitting in seat 3 with $1094.00
- Cocco_Bill sitting in seat 4 with $3947.00
- Kris85 sitting in seat 5 with $1927.02
- MrAce79 sitting in seat 6 with $417.00

sportcafet posted the small blind - $10.00
kalleankpank posted the big blind - $20.00
** Dealing card to Cocco_Bill: :Qd: , :Ad:
Cocco_Bill raised - $80.00
Kris85 folded
MrAce79 folded
Lampard89 folded
sportcafet called - $80.00
kalleankpank called - $80.00

** Dealing the flop: :3h:, :2d:, :Td:
sportcafet checked
kalleankpank bet - $157.00
Cocco_Bill called - $157.00
sportcafet called - $157.00

** Dealing the turn: :3d:
sportcafet checked
kalleankpank checked
Cocco_Bill bet - $450.00
sportcafet raised - $1030.50
kalleankpank folded
Cocco_Bill called - $1030.50

** Dealing the river: :5s:
sportcafet bet - $1386.00
Cocco_Bill ?

The High stakes forum is getting a lot more traffic these days so this should probably be moved there.

I've written and deleted responses to this thread a lot because i keep flip flopping. I think it is very very close, and you might as well flip a coin.

Big Factors:
-Calling preflop to a UTG raise OOP(much of the time a pp, unlikely high diamonds)
-Raise size on the turn given unlikely high diamonds
-Bet size on river


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Man, I sure don't. You might get better/deeper responses in the High Stakes forum, but I simply call.
The villain's line says he really likes his hand and was willing to give up free cards(tricky?/slow play?). He's bluffy & if it's a bluff he doesn't put anymore money in anyway. So then you're called most of the time you are beat here.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower flush here the vast majority of the time, because the way the action went on the flop, that would be the perfect opportunity to raise a set (unless he's tricky and wants you to think he is on a draw by just flat calling a set on a drawy board)

However I would still lean towards calling based on what he thinks you have - he must know you have at least a flush here? and he still bets into you.....also, would he fold a smaller flush to a raise? if he is good he probably would given how the action went down.

I just call here cuz I'm afraid of the boat but there are probably reasons why a shove is good..

Do you have any reads on villain and how he plays flopped sets?

I would expect villain to raise a set on the flop given the flop action ahead of him and that board. So part of me wants to raise this river bet.

As an aside, why didn't you raise the flop donk lead? Any particular reason?

On the river I think his range is more heavily weighted towards flushes/bluffs/trip 3's than boats (due to flop action) but since his range for calling your push is more heavily weighted towards boats and strong flushes, I think I wimp out here and just call.

If he does have a worse flush, his line is terrible, isn't it? His bet size means that if you push he basically has to call, but pretty much any worse hand should fold to his bet considering how scary the board is. Sure, people play badly in this kind of situation but it almost seems TOO bad. So I think it's just a wussy call.

If he's on a flopped set wouldn't he check raise the flop given the two potential drawers already in the pot? He check raises the turn on the scare card, which kind of makes me think he's pulling another move. Is there anything wrong with pushing the turn?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FlyingSaucy

If he's on a flopped set wouldn't he check raise the flop given the two potential drawers already in the pot? He check raises the turn on the scare card, which kind of makes me think he's pulling another move. Is there anything wrong with pushing the turn?

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Not much point pushing turn. WE're either waaaaay ahead or waaaay behind. The only hand we'd be remotely afraid of catching up would be if he had trip 3's and was drawing to the boat. Any other hand either can't catch up, or is already ahead.

Might as well call and let him put in some more money behind on the river. Especially since OP says he likes to make plays.

Thanks that makes sense.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

As an aside, why didn't you raise the flop donk lead? Any particular reason?

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Because i felt it would be more profitable playing a 3-way pot drawing to the nuts in position deep against the loose cannon in the SB.

i would 3 bet the turn to build the pot

Once you get raised on the turn, you pretty much have two decisions:

- 3-bet and stack off
- Call down

I like 3-bet and stack off here. calling the turn and raising the river is a poor line with any hand here imo.

I think opps range is bluff, flush, or boat which makes me think calling is better.

i think its almost allll flush

his hand pretty much looks like a face up flush. check-call flop multiway w/ decent draws. small check-raise when the flush comes. weak blocking bet scared of a boat on the river. shove. sets are such a small part of his range. shoving may be bad because he will want to fold his baby flushes to a raise, but i think you can change his mind w/ tricky timing. the fact that he is very loose preflop puts every suited connector and suited gapper in his range, making shoving +gbucks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gabe

i think its almost allll flush

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yup

I don't see how he can play a set this way... shove it.

yes, he can have a set.
yes, you should still shove.

but raise turn