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$400NL, folds to aggro standard TAG with ASB of 20 to 30 percent and who continuation bets a lot opens to $14 on the button. SC folds and we call in the BB with any two cards.
Pot: $28
Flop: X:spade:Y:heart:Z:spade: where X, Y and Z are any unconnected cards which are not an ace.
We check, he bets $18 and we raise to $50.
Good?
Too general, and you can feel this one out without math. There are a lot more factors needed to add in.
lol levelled.
What other factors do you think we need?
history, his view of you, his view of how you view him, timing, how many tables hes on, how good he is, , , ,
With lots of presumes I think it's good. Though nobody meets all the presumes.
Why did you explicitely say without an Ace? Do you think it changes a lot?
Well lets just assume it's your average stars 400NL table dynamics, he's a standard TAG, unimaginative, non-thinking but doesn't spew, you're a pretty standard TAG (he's not paying enough attention to notice much other then that) with a high fold in the blinds %.
Would it help if I gave specific flops?
1) Q:spade:5:heart:3:spade:
2) 9:club:5:heart:3:heart:
3) 5:club:3:heart:K:spade:
in this situation do your two cards have no draws?
lol you guys don't like doing this with variable huh?
OK say my hand is 4:club:4:diamond:.
This is one of the worst hands you could possibly have to c/r or raise a cbet especially given those boards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Is this a "How can we exploit TAG regs" thread?
In that case, with a high c-bet i kinda like it, but i'm not sure i'd be doing it with ATC.
What's wrong with just 3-betting pre if you think he's just stealing? Is this to get more monies out of him on a flop that likely didn't hit him?
Clar
Why?Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Is it because we have only 2 outs (maybe 2.5 with backdoor str8)??
I am really interested in this thread because I never know when it is a good time to c/r bluff a player such as Irisheyes has described.
I assume it's because if opp is going to cbet everything we are ahead a lot anyway and c/ring turns our hand into a bluff.Quote:
Originally Posted by JL
So is this a good spot to float with 44?Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
i kinda hate calling raises hu oop with 22-77 against non-retards.
i think 3bet/fold is prob much better with these hands.
conventional poker wisdom kinda says dont fold pairs to one raise preflop but i think there r exceptions in strong, tight aggressive games.
oh yea and id consider c/r with 44 on 1 and 3 prob never on 2
listen to sauce
Well personally I agree with you and I often muck 44 preflop because our implied odds are so reduced by the width of his range.Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123
However I do think there are advantages to having a play like this in our game because the better we can play post flop in this position the more we can fight back at button blind steals.
Why? The second flop is most likely to have missed his high card range and most likely to have hit our low pair range.Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123
But opp. is also most likely to think we are bluffing on that flop.Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
He;s non-thinking and unimaginative
In flops 1 & 3 when you check raise you're telling him -
"You probably raised pre with a good hand and this flop may of hit you but my hand is still strong enough to check raise..."
His conclusion... A good chance you have a very strong hand.
In flop 2 you're telling him
"Unless you raised with a premium pocket pair this flop missed most of your range & so I'm check raising you because -"
a) I really think you have AA/KK with your otb raise and I think I will
still get value out of my hand x unlikely
b) I want you to fold / yes
His conclusion... A good chance you have a fairly weak hand.
(Against a weak player (like you said non-thinking) or 6 tabler + check raising low flops isnt bad but against a semi decent tag you want to make your story a bit more believable.)
I think anyways
OK well lets take a 8:spade:5:spade:2:heart: flop and out hand is 4:club:4:diamond:. The preflop action was the same as above with the button open raising to $14 and us calling in the BB. The pot is $28. We check, he bets $18 and we raise to $50.
When he folds we win the pot: $28+$18 = $46
When he calls lets just assume we never improve or show down the best hand so we lose every time. In this case we lose our $50 raise = -$50
0EV = x($46) + (1-x)(-$50)
Solve for x
x=0.52
So as far as I can work out he needs to fold to our check raise 52% of the time or more for the move to be profitable.
I think under normal conditions he'll fold more then that. Whats he going to continue with? Overpairs, sets, top pair and flush/straight draws. I could be wrong but as far as I can work out these hands make up like 30% of an average button opening range with an attempt to steal blinds factor of 28%. This means he'll fold something like 70% of his hands when we check raise, making the move extremely profitable.
On low flops most of this folding range is made up by Ax, and paint. On K/Q high flops the paint part of his range that he folds on the first flop is replaced by medium/low pocket pairs that he folds on the second, meaning that the check raise is still profitable.
Of course the best way for him to combat this is for him to stop cbetting so much but IMO there are tons of TAGs in the midstakes games whose main game is to raise and auto-fire any flop.
Did I miss something here?
While your math isn't wrong, it can be deceiving. If you look at the bigger picture of this play, you also put in the PFR, so if we take into account, it becomes 0EV=($32)x+(-$64)(1-x)=> x=0.66Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
So it needs to work a lot more often.
44 is in general a bad c/r without a set because it has the worst possibility of drawing out of opps calling range, or in other words it has the worst equity against opps calling range.
one reason not touched on that sauce says reraise hand 1 and 3 is because there are a lot of hands he bets for value that he folds to a raise with, and also there are a lot of hands he bets for value that plan on folding to a turn bet after our c/r if we have an aggro image.
Yes I know this but folding is bad because we are ahead of his cbetting range and calling is bad because we are OOP and can't prevent him from seeing two more streets and we have no idea what his cards are. Therefore it is very hard for us to play because we are so easy to VB/bluff on later streets.Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
How sure of this are you? I'm not too good at EV calcs but I was fairly sure mine was right. Can anyone confirm that jack is right?Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
which is why threebetting is generally much better preflop.
Does anyone have pp 22-66 showing a decent profit over a large sample size & if so how do you generally play them to a raise oop vs a semi loose opener (17% pfr +)
regarding 'value betting your 44' vs his range, aren't you folding if he raises or folding if he calls and bets turn in which case you're unlikely to get to showdown & its basically a bluff where the expected ev of this is determined by the % of times villian folds to the check raise?
I've actually just put up the stat on my hud - 'fold to flop raise', and if that number is fairly high I'll try raising them on 1 high card/low flop for the next few days and see how that goes.
I'd imagine a gutshot would be better than a pp as you have more outs if he calls & if the number (fold to flop raise) is high enough any two cards might show a profit until villian adjusts.
Also dumb question... There isn't a stat on the hud that lets you figure out what % of hands villian is 3betting pre??