Bad river call with flopped AA set?

Am I dead here enough by the river that I should have just mucked it and tried to survive for a few more hands or is his range big enough where he's playing identically with 2 pair or AJ, AK, KQ, TT?

I had the feeling I should have just let it go.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3972082484: $2 + $0.25 Sit & Go (30207428), Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:01:13 ET - 2007/10/26
Seat 1: 06CHAMPsStL (6,300)
Seat 2: kingjoha (770)
Seat 4: Hero (1,390)
Seat 9: Rick800 (5,040)
Rick800 posts the small blind of 50
06CHAMPsStL posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ah Ad]
kingjoha folds
Hero raises to 300
Rick800 folds
06CHAMPsStL calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Ac Qs Ts]
06CHAMPsStL checks
Hero bets 400
06CHAMPsStL calls 400
*** TURN *** [Ac Qs Ts] [7s]
06CHAMPsStL checks
Hero checks
*** RIVER *** [Ac Qs Ts 7s] [6d]
06CHAMPsStL bets 5,600, and is all in
Hero calls 690, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 4,910 returned to 06CHAMPsStL

Even though you improved on the flop, this is one of the scariest flops possible, making you almost dead to KJ.

The pot is 600 at the flop, and you are quite short compared to 06Champ. Even though you have a Set of Aces, alot of cards that hit the Turn will really scare you. Any spade apart from the Ace of spades (which could also be in the opponents hand) = 9 cards, any King (non spade) = 3 cards, any Jack (non spade) = 3 cards.

If the opponent has J8, then any 9 (non spade) = 3 cards. If they have J9, any 8 (non spade) = 3 cards also.

Thus, about 21 cards will be scare cards for you, although the opponents gut shots could be unlikely - depending on the player, but this dude does have a big stack.

On the flop is where you need to make your most crucial decision. You can push ALL IN to try and win the pot NOW to make your guess work easier after the flop,and hope you are not up against KJ. You may be called by alot of hands you beat, such as an Ace or 2 pairs. Plus, you have a 25% insurance policy where you can pair the board for a Full House. Personally, this is my option.

If you think the Big stack is bullying you, give him the lead and call the river ALL IN. Keep in mind, you already committed 50% of your chips at the River, you probably have to follow through with it now.

probably just shove flop, certainly shove turn as played, you can't fold river.

This hand was so butchered!

First raise more pre-flop 375-450 (800+ pot), then with the great flop easy PUSH with your 900+ or so remaining chips, the flop obviously hit you hard, but most likely your opponent also.

As played I can't see how you can lay this down, your hand is so under-repped and besides the 2 obvious hands that beat you, you also beat quite alot! CRYING CALL as played

Insta push the flop

I assume we insta push the flop on the scary board because with his chip stack he is probably calling any draw, long or short, for however much so we might as well get all of our money in here and take our best shot?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seoul_child1

This hand was so butchered!

First raise more pre-flop 375-450 (800+ pot), then with the great flop easy PUSH with your 900+ or so remaining chips, the flop obviously hit you hard, but most likely your opponent also.

As played I can't see how you can lay this down, your hand is so under-repped and besides the 2 obvious hands that beat you, you also beat quite alot! CRYING CALL as played

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I hate raising so much being on the bubble in need of doubling up. I like 2.5-3xbb here. If kingjoha had limped than yeah raise more and maybe even just shove it preflop. But we want action here from at least 1 opponent , not all folds. We need to double through and be able to coast ITM.
I understand where your coming from that it would set up the flop to be pushed easier though.
Personally i probally bet the pot on the flop but i think im losing value by doing that a lot of the time.
The flop isn't all that scary. Only hand that's ahead of us is KJ.
I shove the turn regardless though.
Were not folding here.

Meh i take what i said back a little. I don't mind raising 3.5-4xbb if the sb or bb are LOOSE callers. If both are tight callers than i think i just raise 2.5bb. And if im not really sure than probally 3xbb.

With your stack push flop, you know you are getting all your chips in this hand.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DetroitHusling101

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seoul_child1

This hand was so butchered!

First raise more pre-flop 375-450 (800+ pot), then with the great flop easy PUSH with your 900+ or so remaining chips, the flop obviously hit you hard, but most likely your opponent also.

As played I can't see how you can lay this down, your hand is so under-repped and besides the 2 obvious hands that beat you, you also beat quite alot! CRYING CALL as played

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I hate raising so much being on the bubble in need of doubling up. I like 2.5-3xbb here. If kingjoha had limped than yeah raise more and maybe even just shove it preflop. But we want action here from at least 1 opponent , not all folds. We need to double through and be able to coast ITM.
I understand where your coming from that it would set up the flop to be pushed easier though.
Personally i probally bet the pot on the flop but i think im losing value by doing that a lot of the time.
The flop isn't all that scary. Only hand that's ahead of us is KJ.
I shove the turn regardless though.
Were not folding here.

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The above reasoning is exactly why I didn't want to shove preflop. I would have hated to see everyone fold and just be left with the blinds with my chip stack still needing quite a bit of help.

And not that it matters decision-wise, but he did end up having KJo

no one said you should shove pre flop. Basically you have to answer this question:

should I over bet the pot (make it say 400 to go) pre flop so I can make a normal sized bet when I shove the flop

OR

should I make a normal raise pre flop then over bet the pot on the flop.

You have AA and a ~2 bet stack, there is no scenario where you are going to fold. Sure you CAN only bet 400 on the flop, but you're commited anyway.