2/4 overpair 138bb deep vs unk lag

Seat 1: Captain Irish ($396.30)
Seat 2: loloPOZZEDu ($546.80)
Seat 3: richer12 ($981.30)
Seat 4: brenton51 ($448.40)
Seat 5: cardiffgiant1 ($400)
Seat 6: kskool911 ($570.20)
cardiffgiant1 posts the small blind of $2
kskool911 posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #4

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to loloPOZZEDu [Td Th]

Captain Irish folds
loloPOZZEDu raises to $14
richer12 folds
brenton51 folds
cardiffgiant1 folds
kskool911 raises to $50
loloPOZZEDu calls $36

*** FLOP *** [9d 8h 2d]

kskool911 bets $70
loloPOZZEDu

dude is 35/25 /6 datamined. I haven't been at the table very long and there is no history. 550 effective.

question: am i committed to TT here given that he's a lagg and this is a drawy flop, even given stacks?

if answer is yes: is the best play a call call safe turn, committing raise/call, or make a tarpy minraise and call a shove?

if answer is no: what is your plan for the hand?

btw, i run about 25/21 lately, so ive probably been opening a lot of pots.

minraise and call a shove

With him being so aggressive I think a case can be made for just calling down, but with so many ugly turns and uglier rivers we're gonna talk ourself into laying down alot. So try to get it in on the flop, I like the tarp against this guy.

if i raise i raise to like 160 and call a shove.

Idk what advantage we gain by calling down on this board texture, so that's what i do.

yeah i can't see calling being a good option. I used to do this in these spots and found myself spewing chips when i would fold to turn shoves. We're often too content to spew off 40 bbs over and over with the fear of *gasp* getting it in as a dog.
raise/call shove or just shove and hope to get called by worse (55-77?) and fold out better (JJ) :P Villain can put you on j10 and call with Ak. This happens to me all the time and I brick like a champ

165 or call

if we flat call and he checks to us on a blank turn do we check it back or bet? bet/fold? bet/call? We would have 420 left with 240 in the pot.

What about the same action on a 962r flop?

I think a flop like 922 I'd like a call down better.

If we're going to be raising and calling then why don't we just 4bet pre?

might as well let villain spew a cbet, or possibly catch up to JJ+.

semi-hijack, and super long post - sry..but this spot reminds of something i meant to post a while ago...i thought "SOAH" made a real nice post on 2p2 and made me think of pushing vs calling in 3bet pots...i dunno how related this is but whatever it got me thinking about it.


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: $1964.00
Hero: $2167.00
BB: $4540.00

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is SB with {JJ, J9, AT}
Button raises to $80, Hero raises to $280, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: Tc 9s 5h ($580, 2 players)
Hero bets $411, Button raises all-in $1684, Hero?

results: hero called with J9 i think and villain showed 88. OP's point was JJ/J9/AT all seem like similar hands except J9 has best equity.

so the question became, If button has 88, should he call, fold, raise, or push the flop?

SOAH wrote this part:
there's ~$1400 in the pot after we call... assuming he has two overcards, he has 27% equity... which is nearly $400 in equity. So if we KNOW that's what he has and both players play "perfect" on the remaining streets, then calling instead of pushing costs us almost $400... even if he has something with fewer outs, he can still bluff at those cards... if you factor in things like him improving to a flush draw and shoving turn, or just randomly deciding to bluff for whatever reason, we could end up losing this pot in one form or another at least 1/3 of the time... so calling instead of pushing when we're ahead could be as much as $500 worse on average.

If we're behind on the flop, then shoving it in and getting called loses us about $1300 on average (~10% equity saves us $400)... if we call and call all-in on the turn when we hit an 8 and fold otherwise, then our EV is about -$330 (this is assuming you're against a range of 99+ and ATs, btw)

So basically if I did all the math right, then calling is $500 worse than pushing if you're ahead, and pushing is $1000 worse than calling if behind.... which means that if we're ahead 2/3 of the time on the flop, then it doesn't matter which line we take. In order to be ahead 2/3 of the time we'd need to be against a range of something like 22+, 54s+, AJo+, A8s+, KQs (13% of total starting hands). This might be a little too loose... but not too far off.

this also doesn't take into account some stuff like how half the people responding to this poll would fold a T or 9 to a push, and obviously the assumptions about how often you get bluffed out are just rough guesses... but the point is that I don't see how pushing can be called ridiculous or terrible, at worst it's a small mistake imo, none of the options are really that great.

have you got the link for that benny?

just found it..
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...e#Post11558962

That's pretty cool benny

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by benny999

semi-hijack, and super long post - sry..but this spot reminds of something i meant to post a while ago...i thought "SOAH" made a real nice post on 2p2 and made me think of pushing vs calling in 3bet pots...i dunno how related this is but whatever it got me thinking about it.


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: $1964.00
Hero: $2167.00
BB: $4540.00

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is SB with {JJ, J9, AT}
Button raises to $80, Hero raises to $280, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: Tc 9s 5h ($580, 2 players)
Hero bets $411, Button raises all-in $1684, Hero?

results: hero called with J9 i think and villain showed 88. OP's point was JJ/J9/AT all seem like similar hands except J9 has best equity.

so the question became, If button has 88, should he call, fold, raise, or push the flop?

SOAH wrote this part:
there's ~$1400 in the pot after we call... assuming he has two overcards, he has 27% equity... which is nearly $400 in equity. So if we KNOW that's what he has and both players play "perfect" on the remaining streets, then calling instead of pushing costs us almost $400... even if he has something with fewer outs, he can still bluff at those cards... if you factor in things like him improving to a flush draw and shoving turn, or just randomly deciding to bluff for whatever reason, we could end up losing this pot in one form or another at least 1/3 of the time... so calling instead of pushing when we're ahead could be as much as $500 worse on average.

If we're behind on the flop, then shoving it in and getting called loses us about $1300 on average (~10% equity saves us $400)... if we call and call all-in on the turn when we hit an 8 and fold otherwise, then our EV is about -$330 (this is assuming you're against a range of 99+ and ATs, btw)

So basically if I did all the math right, then calling is $500 worse than pushing if you're ahead, and pushing is $1000 worse than calling if behind.... which means that if we're ahead 2/3 of the time on the flop, then it doesn't matter which line we take. In order to be ahead 2/3 of the time we'd need to be against a range of something like 22+, 54s+, AJo+, A8s+, KQs (13% of total starting hands). This might be a little too loose... but not too far off.

this also doesn't take into account some stuff like how half the people responding to this poll would fold a T or 9 to a push, and obviously the assumptions about how often you get bluffed out are just rough guesses... but the point is that I don't see how pushing can be called ridiculous or terrible, at worst it's a small mistake imo, none of the options are really that great.

---

no wonder this guy was recommended to me as a coach.

rezults, i made it 150, got it in vs his KK, and hit running frush

lol u run good now, nice.
id play it like that too...but maybe fold to a push if it happens later?