5/10 - Fold AA vs. reg?

Villain is a 2p2'er, 20/12/3.3 over a lot of hands. Definitely aggro post-flop but I haven't seen him make any crazy bluffs. Turn call ok? River?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $5/$10 - 5 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $1015
CO: $1086.75
Button: $1195
SB: $2129.50
BB: $2183

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with A :heart: A :spade:
Hero raises to $35, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: T :spade: Q :club: Q :diamond: ($75, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $60, BB calls.

Turn: 3 :spade: ($195, 3 players)
BB bets $180, Hero calls.

River: 7 :spade: ($555, 3 players)
BB bets $340, Hero...

I just want to consider bluff

I say this partially because we really can't call I don't think unless his name is Prtctyaneck. This would have to be a 3rd level bluff, but otherwise it would no doubt be for value, and clearly he's not vbetting anything worse than your hand I would think (maybe AT?)
The other reason I say this is because I think he could fold Q9 and QJ (Although he doesn't fold QT, KQ and AQ obviously), and those five hands make up a majority of his range. It would be an interesting and difficult EV calc to do.

I would probably fold - he knows you have a hand and can probably put you on JJ/KK/AA and is betting for value - I doubt he would turn anything like A10 into a bluff.

However I had a similar played hand the other day where opponant took that line and I folded - he said he was betting JJ for value? so you never know

GAME #681728431: Texas Hold'em NL $5.00/$10.00 2007-10-10 00:56:54
Table Chos Malal
Seat 1: Villain ($915.25 in chips)
Seat 3: cheungs ($652.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Preussenhusar ($1,480.75 in chips)
Seat 8: efosheezee ($802.00 in chips)
Seat 10: Hero ($1,045.75 in chips) DEALER
jaybomb: Post SB $5.00
cheungs: Post BB $10.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Jc Qd]
Preussenhusar: Fold
efosheezee: Fold
Hero: Raise $35.00
Villain: Call $30.00
cheungs: Call $25.00
*** FLOP *** [6d Qh Qs]
Villain: Check
cheungs: Check
Hero: Bet $80.00
Villain: Call $80.00
cheungs: Fold
*** TURN *** [9c]
Villain: Bet $100.00
Hero: Call $100.00
*** RIVER *** [2h]
Villain: Bet $260.00
Hero: Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $722.00 Rake $3.00
jaybomb: wins $722.00

both hands in this thread cant be folds

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Toadstool

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Jc Qd]
Preussenhusar: Fold
efosheezee: Fold
Hero: Raise $35.00
Villain: Call $30.00
cheungs: Call $25.00
*** FLOP *** [6d Qh Qs]
Villain: Check
cheungs: Check
Hero: Bet $80.00
Villain: Call $80.00
cheungs: Fold
*** TURN *** [9c]
Villain: Bet $100.00
Hero: Call $100.00
*** RIVER *** [2h]
Villain: Bet $260.00
Hero: Fold

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How could you fold this? :O

My analysis was that there were no draws on the flop so he obviously has a made hand - He wasnt calling air planning to bluff especially OOP with another guy yet to act so he has a made hand over 90% of the time here.
I doubt he would have called pre with 6x so he either has a pocket pair 99 or lower (I assume he would reraise 1010+) or Qx

If he has say 88 I really dont think he leads turn and river like that, hes not an idiot and he cant expect me to call with worse - its possible he is turning them into a bluff but his range consists more of Qx or fh's (66 or 99)

If he does have Qx then the only one I am beating is Q10. The line villain has taken always seems so strong to me and is rarely a bluff.

id prob min raise turn and shove most rivers

I think there's value in a turn raise. I think the flush draws are a large part of his range.

As played, I'd call the river; doesn't look great though.

Some kind of connector or suited Queen is playable. Check the flop for pot control - try and get them to think you have AK and missed. Betting this flop is only semi-bluffing with 2 outs to Aces Full. You could hope for a Jack to hit, and then bluff it strong.

This is a tough spot, but you really shouldn't go broke here. If he has a straight draw - then he's in good shape, although Aces aren't outs for him. If he has any lone Ten or a pocket pair, it would be hard to outdraw your AAQQ.

You really shouldn't show strength and alert him to your holding. In case, he decides to charge you the premium on each street to showdown. Check the flop since it doesn't hurt your hand.

i would call for sure

im not saying thats the right play, im just saying thats why i would do.

Is it the right play?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Evansgambit

Check the flop since it doesn't hurt your hand.

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lol, we have AA not AT

Sure checking the flop doesn't hurt your hand, but it destroys your chances of getting 3 streets of value vs a reg (which you have an excellent chance of getting btw).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

Is it the right play?

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Results: Hero called, villain showed QsJd

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Toadstool

GAME #681728431: Texas Hold'em NL $5.00/$10.00 2007-10-10 00:56:54
Table Chos Malal
Seat 1: Villain ($915.25 in chips)
Seat 10: Hero ($1,045.75 in chips) DEALER
jaybomb: Post SB $5.00
cheungs: Post BB $10.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Jc Qd]
Hero: Raise $35.00
Villain: Call $30.00
cheungs: Call $25.00
*** FLOP *** [6d Qh Qs]
Villain: Check
cheungs: Check
Hero: Bet $80.00
Villain: Call $80.00
cheungs: Fold
*** TURN *** [9c]
Villain: Bet $100.00
Hero: Call $100.00
*** RIVER *** [2h]
Villain: Bet $260.00
Hero: Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $722.00 Rake $3.00
jaybomb: wins $722.00

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Smells like a lone Queen that isn't putting you on a Queen since you raised preflop. Only problem is if he's filled up or not, or has you out kicked with QK or QA.

Let's see. You lose to 22 - which is unlikely (But Le Chiffre did it against Bond - fictional but yeah!) so we rule it out. 99 is possible if he's putting you on AK (Phil Ivey did it to Moneymaker). And 66 also - which is the most likely of the pocket pairs.

So 66 and QX (Where X pairs or outkicks you) are the 2 hands your afraid of.

QX that beat you: QA, QK, Q9, Q6, Q2 = 5 type
QX that you beat (or tie): QJ, QT, Q8, Q7, Q5, Q4, Q3 = 8 types

Thus his lone QX beats you only (5/12) 42% of the time.

I think calling is good, cause he believes you don't have a Q as indicated by your call on the Turn and thus would likely think his QX suited is good.

fold1 call 2

The first hand I think is an obviuos fold. just seems to me had hit a set. Take toure lumps in this hand and move on.

The second hand err....ummm. Thinking trying to be polite here... For christ sake how could you fold that hand. I just cant see anything beating you here!! :roll:

Anytime someone check/calls a flop and then leads 2 streets in a row is a sign of big strength. A paired board makes me all the more suspicious.

I think the river is a fold given the strong line, but a very grudging fold. Definitely have to follow along for the turn, but if you have opponent beat you expect them to be looking for a cheap river here -- hoping for a check/check or to check/call.

is it bad to raise the flop in hand 2? if so why?

I don;t think its bad to raise the flop in hand 2 - a check would look very suspicious if you are almost always c-betting anyway. It is more 'trappy' to bet the flop it is always so transparant when somebody tries to trap you by checking a flop when they always c-bet anyway.

If you are going to bet air/2 pair here then you should be betting Qx here as well so that your range is wider and you are harder to read. On that note though I think checking AA/KK here could be a good play here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by littlewashu

For fucks sake how could you fold that hand

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What's with the fold in #2!
When he leads river in #1 he is not bluffing and he is not value betting a worse hand...Fold river fo sho

What's with the fold in #2!
When he leads turn in hand one and you call your range is very polarised..Whereas his range is still wide-ish-- he could have KJ or flush draw
When he leads river he is not bluffing and he is not value betting a worse hand...Fold river fo sho