TP sucks (semi theory post)
I have played quite a bit of FR in the past 2 weeks -- 20k hands @ Stars 100NL for a net win of 3.9k (9.59 PTBB/100). I think it's a combination of me running good, plus an adjustment that I have made -- underplaying AK/AQ/AJ
My AKs and AK are running well -- 3+ PTBB/100 for AKs, slightly smaller for AK. My biggest loss with AKs is only $16.
w/ AK and AQ in bad position I often just limp into the pot. AJ I fold unless I'm in LP, and I won't raise limpers with that. Coz these hands are subjected to heavy reverse implied odds.
The only times that these hands (esp. unsuited) will win anything moderate is when
1) you flop a pair and outkick your opponent
2) your opponent bluffs you
Playing TP OOP without a read is just asking for trouble. Say you open raise AQ/AJ in LP against unknowns, got a caller or 2, IP or OOP. You flop TP, c-bet, opponent(s) fold. Or you miss, c-bet and opponents fold, Or you miss but get both to fold after 2 barrels. Great, you won the pot. But you would have won the pot with any two cards.
On the other hand say you flop TPGK+ OOP
1) on a non-drawy board, and your non-fish opponent calls. This is probably the best situation -- you're WA or WB. You can try to take a pot-control line. Notice if your TP is Aces you'll have to worry about Aces up. Now assume opponent raises you instead. If you a) call your hand is obvious as hell, and you'll get bluffed out or get value-bet to death. If you b) reraise you 'll fold out the bluffs and the outkicked pairs, but that's essentially making bets that only better hands will call. But at least that gives you information. Either way it's not good.
2) the board is drawy, and non-fish opponent doesn't fold. You're in deeper trouble. Opponent can take multiple lines:
a) raise flop and take their free turn card
b) raise flop and bet/raise turn
c) call flop and bet/raise most turns
and he can take these lines with all kinds of hands: set/2 pairs, outkicked TP, strong/weak draws, total air
In case a) you gave opponent good odds to draw, and in b) and c) you will be subjected to multiple difficult decisions, often a huge river bet. Even outkicked pairs can represent something else and push you off the pot.
In conclusion, with TP against unknowns you need a lot of betting room for information. So don't take away that option by raising PF. And if TP gets called down twice unimproved it usually only beats a bluff.
Agree/disagree?
