Gross river deep OOP 100 NL

Rarely post but I thought this one was interesting.
Nl 100 on Prima today 250 BBs deep.

Villain seems pretty standard if a bit passive, I folded JJ to his shove on a 10 high board in a previous hand and was shown a set.

I'm dealt :qs: :ts: in the BB
UTG limps, CO (Villain) raises to 4$ and myself and UTG both call.

Flop is :qd: :td: :2c:
I check, UTG leads for 8$ and Villain instantly calls. I make it 33$ to go.
UTG folds and Villain calls quickly.

Turn is a :7s:
Pot is roughly 85$, I bet 82$. Villains takes a LOT of time and eventually calls.

River is the very gross :ad:

We both have about 100 behind, and pot is 250ish.

What is our play here? I'll post my thoughts later

i think i like leading the flop better.

river spot kinda sucks...
my first reaction was to just stick it in there, but i dont think he calls with much that you beat and i dont see him bluffing if you check. i would like to know a lot more about the villan in a spot like this but with what you said i dont think there is too much difference between your options.

well since you can be fairly certain he plays his good hands fast, i think the river is a pretty easy c/f.

I don't think he is going to bluff with a hand like K-Q if that's what he called you down with.

Due to villain description, C/F

Yeah this sucks but you have to check/fold. Every draw completed and I don't see any hand he could have that you beat and is not calling a shove. You're avatar is amazing btw.

Unless he's creative, which I dont think he is given description, theres absolutely nothing that he shoves river with that you beat...AQ got there, KJ got there, flush got there.

Possible river bluffs by him : j9
Hands you beat that he wont turn into bluffs: KQ
The rest of his range has you beat imo

i railed this hand and I can honestly say there was a collective river "gurgle" from both of our stomachs pre-vomit

Regarding flop play :

I c/r in these spots because I'd rather bloat the pot on the flop rather than on an ugly turn. Not sure if that makes sense.

I think the ratio of the flop being bet - thus allowing me to c/r vs. the ratio of my lead being raised is higher enough in the favor of the former making it a more consistently effective play. I also think bet/4-bet looks stronger than a c/raise and I don't want him folding an overpair whereas he might shove over my c/raise a larger amount of the time than calling my c/raise. Does this seem logical? I'm definitely looking way too deep into this for 100 NL but still this hand has vexed me all night.....

u sound almost as high as me

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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

my first reaction was to just stick it in there.

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This was my first reaction as well......I mean how gross is checking and folding to his shove here in terms of the lifetilt that ensues. I'd rather shove and at least be able to complain about being sucked out on at least get some freakin' closure on the hand. I had great memories of :qs: :ts: until she dropped the riverbomb on me.

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

u sound almost as high as me

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lol, O RLY

"the ratio of my lead being raised is higher enough in the favor of the former making it a more consistently effective play. "

hahahhahahaah

I like how u played it. Overpairs? wtf how?

Is there any merit in keeping the pot smaller on turn and maybe betting 65 or so? It would allow us to pot-shove good rivers, and also get away on Ad-like cards, while still making him pay to draw...hmm, I say that because the odds on river are so good even though youre 99% beat, which still makes it a fold..but if pot is smaller it would be easier. im not high

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Originally Posted by Alexos

Is there any merit in keeping the pot smaller on turn and maybe betting 65 or so? It would allow us to pot-shove good rivers, and also get away on Ad-like cards, while still making him pay to draw...hmm, I say that because the odds on river are so good even though youre 99% beat, which still makes it a fold..but if pot is smaller it would be easier. im not high

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rly good question Alexos. Description of villain in OP isn't quite adequate. For a few reasons, he seemed really bad. I had him pretty squarely on AA/KK for some reason and I wanted Rav to shove turn.

Your alternative is interesting though.

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Originally Posted by Alexos

im not high

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This is key. Wow my analysis is awesome on many levels.

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Originally Posted by Ravageur

the ratio of my lead being raised is higher enough in the favor of the former making it a more consistently effective play.

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sticky plz

jeezus that s golden end thread