Rivered straight facing massive push; BvB & deep

Villain seems to be a reasonably aggressive multitabling TAG who likes to get tricky with floats and 2barrels every so often (But far from always). He doubled up earlier when a floated PP hit a set on the turn vs. an idiot's top pair. He's 17/14/2.4 or so over ~100 hands. I've been playing quiet TAG, I haven't done anything out of line.



Seat 1: kumite76 ($41.75 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: Villain ($119.59 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero ($130.57 in chips)
Seat 8: sanspade ($44.38 in chips)
Seat 10: Juwel79 ($12.00 in chips)
Villain: Post SB $0.25
Hero: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [:Qd: :Kd:]
2 folds
Villain: Raise $2.25
Hero: Call $2.00


*** FLOP *** [:9s: :Ts: :Kc:]
Villain: Bet $4.00
Hero: Call $4.00


*** TURN *** [:2d:]
Villain: Bet $11.00
Hero: Call $11.00


*** RIVER *** [:Jd:]
Villain: Allin $102.09
Hero goes wtf?

raise flop?

I think I almost always fold here I don't believe he's firing enough without a Q or AQ. He surely isn't doing this with 2 pair or a busted draw. Looks like some kind of stack -a-donk line to me.

Anyway why no reraise on the turn?

no way he doesnt have at least a Q here.

You're risking $100 to win $15.

You need to be splitting 87% of the time to call.

AQ,KQ,QQ,QJ,Q9,Q8. All probably raise preflop and bet the flop alot. The turn filters alot out of his range though. Id say only

A:spade: Q:spade:, KQ, QJ.

Will get there on the river to shove. A:spade: Q:spade: has one combination. KQ has 6. QJ has 6. So we are splitting 12/13 of the time which is 92%. If he shoves KQ/QJ every time then we can call.

BUT will he shove every time with KQ / QJ here? If he shoves AQs every time here then he needs to shove KQ/QJ 94% of the time which is probably not going to happen. Id expect him to overbet shove AQ most of the time, and usually make a smaller value bet with just a Q. If hes not even shoving KQ 50% then its a pretty clear fold.

This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.

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Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.

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Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.

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Originally Posted by WildBobAA

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Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.

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Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.

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yea id shove it

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Originally Posted by Pelion

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WildBobAA

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.

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Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.

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yea id shove it

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Whats a better play though. Shoving or check/shoving? I think its safe to assume that hero would value bet a Q if checked to in this spot.

Check/shoving gets more value out of a bare Q who might fold to a shove and any missed draw that might try to steal.

good point. check/shoving looks better

this is v close