100NL: flop nut FD + gutshot, raise or push?

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

UTG ($101.90 in chips)
UTG+2 ($96.00 in chips)
Button ($95.00 in chips)
Hero ($98.75 in chips)

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is SB with A :diamond: Q :diamond:
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, 4 folds, Button raises to $5, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: J :diamond: 8 :spade: T :diamond: ($21, 4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Button bets $16, Hero ???

Had a small read on villain that he called down QQ in a J high without raising up to river.
My image was kind of loose as I had played another pot where I bet flop/turn on a A high flop with JJ.
What do you do here? Do you raise to around $45 or push?

push.

i like a raise to $45ish to give villain some vague hope of having FE.

You have a double gutter BTW

You have a TON of outs here. Nut flush, belly-buster, overcards! I like a push here. $45 is also nice, but probably looks scarier to villian than the push would...

I think you stand to win more if you push. Assume you turn the diamond for the nut flush or the str8 card comes and you had just called the flop. Opponent may shut right down and give up.

Worst case is opponent has a set with a redraw to a FH against you. Otherwise you are a statistical favorite to win this hand after all 5 cards are out.

royal flush draw = push

The problem with the push is that we're putting so much money in the pot compared to the flop pot size that I could only see a set/two pairs or a big donk calling.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jimmy44

The problem with the push is that we're putting so much money in the pot compared to the flop pot size that I could only see a set/two pairs or a big donk calling.

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you don't have a hand yet...use your FE

Push. The pot's big enough that him folding a pair/small 2 pair is good (especially if he has an A or Q to go with it).