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villain is 12/10, original raiser is 18/15. I cant smooth call the 3bet can I? Fold to the 5bet with this much behind?
Converters not working but doesnt matter.
18/15 raises to $1. 12/10 reraises to $4. I make it $10. Folds around to 12/10 who makes it $20. We are $50 deep and have no history and I have 100 hands on him. He never has worse than KK right?
it's $8 to win his $30 more plus the $24 in the pot right? That makes it pretty damn close b/c you have exact set odds here.
He's rockish. What do you know about his 3-bet range? I think he 3-bets normally with QQ+, AK? (Just learning how to use HUD stats.)
100 hands isn't definitive. I'd prolly felt and take my lumps.
Need at least 8:1 for a set so $10 short of set odds. Im also going to hit a set slightly less often if his range is KK/AA, and im going either fold a tie, or stack off to AA quite often if I call here.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
if his range is KK/AA youre gonna hit a set less often? I mean right when he has KK youll never hit a set, but what importance does this have? This doesnt factor into anything.
100 hands is nothing, felt that shit and stop being such a nit.
good fold. This is one of the *very few* times to fold KK and i dont think anyone could convince me othewise.
If his range is AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99 then my set cards are gone a small fraction of the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by boost
If his range is AA/KK then my set cards are gone alot of the time.
If I am planning on felting it anyway then it doesnt matter, but if I am planning on playing for set value (as I think spenda was suggesting) then it matters alot that my outs are dead alot of the time and Im going to fold a tie.
If we are planning on felting anyway then his range needs to be wider than AA/KK so the only question here is, do people think his range is wider than AA/KK?
Yea this is the third time ever that Ive folded it preflop. It feels kinda dirty though which is why I posted it.Quote:
Originally Posted by bode
ah yes, that makes sense. I was in the mindset of felting it so I didnt really get the relevance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
wait though, I understand the whole KK is in his range therefore I'm going to hit a set less but that also raises your equity a lot here compared to solely being against AA.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
I call.
But it only raises my equity when I plan to show down without a set. And if im showing down without a set here and his range is KK/AA then its very -EV (do the math). My point is this.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
If his range is KK/AA and I plan to call and fold if I dont hit a set then Im not going to hit a set often enough to call, even if I stack him every time I hit. Calling is -EV.
Sooooo the only way we can call/push is if his range is wider than AA/KK. Thats what im asking. Does anyone think he has less than KK here ever? He needs to play QQ-/AK- like this something like 25% of the time he gets them IIRC.
this is always KK/AA. AK would push earlier IMO
I think your fold is good by a wide margin.
NITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTS
It's KK, it's 25nl, it's the nuts.
So youre saying his range is wider? OK. Fwiw im not that big a nit. I got allin preflop with ATo about 5 mins earlier on a different table...Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I have to say I disagree with the logic that we base our decision on the stakes rather than the player.
Just grab you ballsack and call already, we know you didn't really fold.
lol i really did. i have to say i wasnt 100% when i first folded but this thread has made me alot more sure :p
I'm gonna stick my neck out here and say that both stacking off and mucking are close to 0ev.
i agree with folding.
no its not . there are rocks/set miners at NL25 that make this not a bad fold if u uf can recognize them which is not hard at all. all depends on read on this guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
This is a very easy fold IMO.
pel,
i had a similar situation pop up tonight. not nearly as deep, tho. but, i had over 100 hands of history on a 10/4. i raise with KK early to 3X, he RRes me late to $3, i pop him to $7.50 (half my current stack because i'm getting pretty confident its AA)...he pushes. granted, i set the 4bet up so i could get out...but i just cant drop KK at 25NL.
long story short, we get it in and he showed AQo. i was certain with those stats it was AA, but i guess i now have to be over 100% sure its AA before i think of dropping KK. lol.
i wouldnt drop it at 25, take the medicine and hope its your time to cash in on the 20%.
Yea chopper, the stack depth is a huge factor, for 2 reasons. First of all the deeper he is, the less likely he is to want to get it in with weaker hands. Secondly, the deeper he is the worse odds you are getting at the point where you think you are behind, and obviously the worse odds you have the less sure you need to be before you dump it. I wouldnt have even considered folding if we had been 100BB deep since I would have been paying $15 to win $35 at the point where I made my decision. I only need 4:1 if I know he has AA so getting better than 2:1 I dont have to be against worse very often to call. At 200bbs deep I am paying $40 to win $60 so my odds are much worse AND im more sure he has AA/KK.
Results plz!
I folded...Quote:
Originally Posted by Ash256
Yeah, but what did your opponents flip?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
I want to either validate or destroy every post in this thread by being results-oriented. :P
he didnt show.
Just my 2 cents.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Basically, I have to agree with bigspenda.
Have you been 3/4betting lately?
If he's aggressive, after your small 3bet villain could min raised you with a wider range than AA/KK. A min 4bet is always problamatic as you have to guess how villain interprets it (if you had 4bet to $15, I might consider folding if villain 5bets to $30). As played, at up to 200BB, I push PF or call PF and push any non A flop.
I believe you'll get enough folds with AK/AQ or calls with QQ/KK/AK to compensate the times you'll be up against AA.