Rough Equities for the "Medium Hands"

I decided to do some work analyzing how I was playing on the flop, and just from the analysis I have done here I can tell I have been making a lot of mistakes. I haven’t really done any work with Pokerstove on certain turn cards, but I imagine it will be easier than analyzing flop textures since ranges are tighter. This post should help to give general ideas about how to play hands like middle pair, weaker top pairs, and drawing hands.

Note that I didn’t specify which positions these c-bets were coming from, but we can assume that good players ranges are tighter in earlier positions and looser closer to the button. So I think these equities can still be useful, but just roughly adjust them according to a player position.

I used a LAGG and a TAG as my “upper and lower bounds” for estimating equity against a random opponent. Since it seems like most serious players use HUD’s, the percentages should be familiar. I didn’t pick real extremes for my equities (i.e. a 60/45 LAGG or a 10/8 nit) since 1). Those players aren’t very common and 2). It is a lot easier to play against these guys. I picked a pretty loose LAGG and a pretty tight TAG since these players are much more common, and are generally more difficult to play against.

I chose this flop texture at random. It isn't A-A-K or 5s-6s-7s, so decisions on the flop should require some thought. I will definitely be experimenting with different flop textures and opponent types, and will certainly post them if i find anything really interesting.

I hope that this post is useful in some way to many players like myself who are still struggling to improve their game enough to move up beyond lower limits (i also hope it is accurate!).


The first 4 Pokerstove equities are assuming our opponent is a LAGG who has a PFR of around 33% and continuation bets around 80% of flops.



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

320,760 games 0.005 secs 64,152,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 3h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.059% 58.76% 00.30% 188466 972.50 { 9d6d }
Hand 1: 40.941% 40.64% 00.30% 130349 972.50 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K9o+, QJo }




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

306,900 games 0.005 secs 61,380,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 3h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.583% 58.56% 01.02% 179725 3135.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 40.417% 39.40% 01.02% 120905 3135.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, A2o+, K9o+, QJo }



Calling Ranges:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

53,460 games 0.016 secs 3,341,250 games/sec

Board: 9s 3h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.023% 45.16% 01.86% 24145 993.50 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 52.977% 51.12% 01.86% 27328 993.50 { JJ+, 99, 33, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, KJs+, QhJh, QsJs, JTs, AJo, KJo }



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

62,370 games 0.005 secs 12,474,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 3h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.476% 22.46% 00.01% 14011 7.50 { 9d6d }
Hand 1: 77.524% 77.51% 00.01% 48344 7.50 { JJ+, 99, 33, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, KJs+, QhJh, QsJs, JTs, AJo, KJo }





The second set of Pokerstove equities are assuming our opponent is a TAG who raises 16% of his hands and continuation bets around 70% of flops.



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

139,590 games 0.005 secs 27,918,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 3h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.220% 56.22% 00.00% 78476 1.50 { 9d6d }
Hand 1: 43.780% 43.78% 00.00% 61111 1.50 { 22+, ATs+, KJs+, 86s+, 76s, AJo+, KQo }




Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

125,730 games 0.005 secs 25,146,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 3h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.545% 56.28% 02.27% 70756 2852.50 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 41.455% 39.19% 02.27% 49269 2852.50 { 22+, ATs+, KJs+, 86s+, 76s, AJo+, KQo }



Calling Ranges:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

36,630 games 0.005 secs 7,326,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 3h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.849% 47.74% 00.11% 17487 40.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 52.151% 52.04% 00.11% 19063 40.00 { JJ+, 99, 33, AhQh, AJs, AhTh, KJs, AJo }



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

41,580 games 0.005 secs 8,316,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 3h Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.225% 16.22% 00.00% 6745 1.50 { 9d6d }
Hand 1: 83.775% 83.77% 00.00% 34832 1.50 { JJ+, 99, 33, AhQh, AJs, AhTh, KJs, AJo }






This final equity shows the value of TPMK against the same TAG’s calling range of a flop re-raise.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

33,660 games 0.005 secs 6,732,000 games/sec

Board: Jh 9s 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.515% 81.21% 00.31% 27335 103.00 { JJ+, 99, 33, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, AhTh, KhQh, KdJd, KhJh, AJo }
Hand 1: 18.485% 18.18% 00.31% 6119 103.00 { QdJd }




My thoughts on the Pokerstove equities:


Surprisingly, raising TPMK on this flop against this type of opponent is about as bad as doing so with MPNK. So just calling with both MPNK and TPMK against this type of opponent is probably optimal. Even drying up the flop texture did little to change the difference in equity against villain’s calling ranges. Both hands’ equity increased by 10%, but the ~2% difference in equity remained and having ~30% equity against an opponents’ calling range without a lot of outs is bad.


Without actually running a Pokerstove analysis for a 9 out draw, one can assume the equity of such a draw would be between 30-40% (depending on the opponent/specific hole cards). Still clearly better than raising middle pair or a weaker top pair on this sort of flop. To balance out the times you raise a draw and just call with middle pair type hands, you should sometimes call behind with a set or better.This way opponents can’t double barrel you with impunity, though if your opponent really 2 and 3 barrels light TPGK is often good. Just on this flop texture giving two free cards wouldn’t be optimal, so making a decision on the turn whether to push/fold with TPGK would be the correct play.


Also note that in 100NL games you can probably just call with MP and TPMK hands and re-raise draws and good hands - and not have that tendency exploited.