When can I make this move?

There are a few players that 3bet me a lot preflop even thought they have fairly tight stats.

Here are 2 hands against the same player:
Villain's stats: 18.9/13.5 over 1100 hands

Hand 1:

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $665.00
BB: $443.10
UTG: $585.00
Hero (CO): $646.00
BTN: $716.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7:club: 9:club: (5 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $21.00, BTN raises to $66.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $45.00

Flop: ($141) 3:club: 6:heart: 5:spade: (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $100.00, Hero raises to $300.00, BTN folds

Pot Size: $541.00

Hand 2:

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $776.30
BB: $120.00
UTG: $1,387.78
Hero (MP): $470.60
CO: $657.00
BTN: $810.93

Preflop: Hero is dealt K:heart: J:spade: (6 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $18.00, CO folds, BTN raises to $56.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $38.00

Flop: ($121) 2:spade: Q:diamond: 5:heart: (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $88.00, Hero raises to $280.00, BTN folds

Pot Size: $489.00

The hands happened on different days.

My question is, when can I make this move? What do the conditions have to be for me to make this move profitably?

What does his 3bet range have to be? And what does his calling range have to be? Assuming he will nearly always cbet.
It doesn't matter what we have. We are always bluffing.

Wow, I already find myself using the ISF theorem. Use this move when you're ahead of his range, and fold equity is + for some reason against this opponent, such as he folds too much, or you have a tight image.

Hand 1: I hate the call pre, i never call sc's oop here. As played the flop raise is obvious.

Hand 2: Again, I really dont like the call pre, KJ is not a hand you really want to have in this situation (Your fucked against AK,KQ, AJ, etc. and you're going to stack off when you flop a pair) I really dont like your raise size here, although i dont necessarily think its a really bad spot to raise. I prob just pop to 220. I don't like stealing in this spot in general because considering what you've called so far opp probably thinks you've been calling a lot of his threebets pre (aka your image isnt tight).

i don't usually call 3bets this light, but i had just had enough of him 3betting so much. the flop was as harmless as it gets on both hands so i went for the checkraise hoping he would fold.
when i call with KJ, i don't call because i hope to flop a pair. i call more because i've had enough of him 3betting me and i want to take the pot on a harmless flop.

i do not usually play this loose. these may be the only 2 hands i've played like this in my last 25k hands.


my question was more if you could set up a mathematical model to work out when this line is +EV and on which flops. it doesn't matter what we have. as long as we have a fairly tight image.

they think we have a decent hand and don't realize that we could have any 2 cards. what range must they have?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pokerroomace

my question was more if you could set up a mathematical model to work out when this line is +EV and on which flops. it doesn't matter what we have. as long as we have a fairly tight image.

they think we have a decent hand and don't realize that we could have any 2 cards. what range must they have?

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Very opponent dependent when/what flops to c/r. This is why taking good notes on an opponents 3betting range is useful.

Generally, K-x-x flops are good to c/r with Ace high since you have lots of F.E. (the flop likely missed him) and you have at least 3 Ace outs if called. Low non suited flops are good to c/r with a hand like A-Q/K-Q since you have several outs against a middle pocket pair if they decide to look you up. Avoid c/ring coordinated flops (7c 9c Qh is a pretty coordinated flop) since these flops are most likely to have hit your opponents hand in some way. Just make sure you play K-K/A-A the same way when you are OOP though or it will be less likely you have a legitimate hand.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pokerroomace

my question was more if you could set up a mathematical model to work out when this line is +EV and on which flops. it doesn't matter what we have. as long as we have a fairly tight image.

they think we have a decent hand and don't realize that we could have any 2 cards. what range must they have?

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Very opponent dependent when/what flops to c/r. This is why taking good notes on an opponents 3betting range is useful.

Generally, K-x-x flops are good to c/r with Ace high since you have lots of F.E. (the flop likely missed him) and you have at least 3 Ace outs if called. Low non suited flops are good to c/r with a hand like A-Q/K-Q since you have several outs against a middle pocket pair if they decide to look you up. Avoid c/ring coordinated flops (7c 9c Qh is a pretty coordinated flop) since these flops are most likely to have hit your opponents hand in some way. Just make sure you play K-K/A-A the same way when you are OOP though or it will be less likely you have a legitimate hand.

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i will never play AA or KK (or QQ) like this. lol. I will always 4bet.

Actually, thinking about it, there is now hand I play like this. I might play JJ like this, but unlikely. Against this specific opponent I may play big pairs like this.

If I play this line, it usually means I was fishing with a low pp or other hand and hit in some way (ie set/straight/draw), or I'm just completely bluffing.

The thing is, it doesn't matter what he thinks I have. I haven't played enough hands with him so that he will know I will never play AA and KK like this.
All that matters is that he doesn't have a big pair, or that he has a weak pair and will fold.

I know I play $600NL, but there really isn't a need to represent a hand a lot of the time. He doesn't know exactly how I play. All he needs to know is that I could play AA like this, or that someone could play it like this.

All that matters are his cards. Sad, but true IMO.