semi-tough decesion w/ AQ

-buzzle is 40/10/5.5 over 50 hands
-two pears is 17/10/1.5 over 90 hands

is this a correct fold?
Edit: After looking at this i think its a fairly easy fold given a normal Tagg 3-bet calling range, i guess it seemed tougher while playing.

PokerStars Game #11261934467: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/08/01 - 22:24:39 (ET)
Table 'Phocaea IV' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: AE8KOBE8 ($6.70 in chips)
Seat 2: buzzlebuzzle ($48 in chips)
Seat 3: BankeBrett ($98.30 in chips)
Seat 4: two pears ($52.55 in chips)
Seat 5: Bode-ist ($56.90 in chips)
Seat 6: mike_the_cat ($21.50 in chips)
buzzlebuzzle: posts small blind $0.25
BankeBrett: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Bode-ist [Qd Ac]
two pears: raises $1.50 to $2
Bode-ist: raises $5 to $7
mike_the_cat: folds
AE8KOBE8: folds
buzzlebuzzle: calls $6.75
BankeBrett: folds
two pears: calls $5
*** FLOP *** [6d Th As]
buzzlebuzzle: checks
two pears: bets $10
Bode-ist: folds

Too weak IMO. I would at least call the flop.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by silu_nz

Too weak IMO. I would at least call the flop.

---

i thought i was way behind his range, but plugging it into PokerStove it looks like im ahead of his range here, until he leads into me. I cant think im ahead of anything here but QQ/KK, and how often is a 17/10 nit leading into the pf 3-bettor w/ an A on the board?


32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec
Board: 6d Th As
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.079% 44.84% 09.24% 14648 3019.50 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 45.921% 36.68% 09.24% 11983 3019.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


---



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec
Board: 6d Th As
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.549% 61.25% 00.30% 14552 72.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 38.451% 38.15% 00.30% 9064 72.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


---

I think his preflop calling range is waaaaaaaaaaay wider than you're giving him credit for - the bad player has already called to see a flop, and I just don't see him folding that much stuff when he's getting 4:1 preflop, especially now that the bad player has come along for the ride.

Having said that, flop action still scares the shit out of me.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ash256

I think his preflop calling range is waaaaaaaaaaay wider than you're giving him credit for - the bad player has already called to see a flop, and I just don't see him folding that much stuff when he's getting 4:1 preflop, especially now that the bad player has come along for the ride.

Having said that, flop action still scares the shit out of me.

---

even with the other guy calling, you still think a 17/10 is calling w/ hands like 88/99/AJ? His original raise is from UTG, so i dont think hes getting tricky here.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bode-ist

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ash256

I think his preflop calling range is waaaaaaaaaaay wider than you're giving him credit for - the bad player has already called to see a flop, and I just don't see him folding that much stuff when he's getting 4:1 preflop, especially now that the bad player has come along for the ride.

Having said that, flop action still scares the shit out of me.

---

even with the other guy calling, you still think a 17/10 is calling w/ hands like 88/99/AJ? His original raise is from UTG, so i dont think hes getting tricky here.

---

Ok i felt bad for just lurking and occasionally posting in the commune in threads where i'm mentioned, so I guess i'll throw a strategy post in here.

I think you are leaving a few things out of your analysis:

A. Villian is 17/10 over 90 hands. 90 hands is a pretty small sample. My real VPIP is somewhere around 25 but if I look through my sessions in PT im pretty sure I can find some where my vpip is around 15 or 40 for 100 hand samples, so that being said I don't think his stats should be taken that seriously. I'm not saying they should be ignored either. I think a more accurate analysis is "ok this guy is probably pretty tight and i should proceed with caution", rather than "this is a nit i must be behind."

B. The fish cold-calling greatly increases UTG's range here. If i'm villain here i'm probably calling with a large portion of my UTG opening range. I interpret his flop action to be either a monster, or he wants to play the pot with the donk and wants to see where you are at. Given that, I think Hero needs to at least call the flop bet and re-evaluate the turn.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lambchopdc

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bode-ist

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ash256

I think his preflop calling range is waaaaaaaaaaay wider than you're giving him credit for - the bad player has already called to see a flop, and I just don't see him folding that much stuff when he's getting 4:1 preflop, especially now that the bad player has come along for the ride.

Having said that, flop action still scares the shit out of me.

---

even with the other guy calling, you still think a 17/10 is calling w/ hands like 88/99/AJ? His original raise is from UTG, so i dont think hes getting tricky here.

---

Ok i felt bad for just lurking and occasionally posting in the commune in threads where i'm mentioned, so I guess i'll throw a strategy post in here.

I think you are leaving a few things out of your analysis:

A. Villian is 17/10 over 90 hands. 90 hands is a pretty small sample. My real VPIP is somewhere around 25 but if I look through my sessions in PT im pretty sure I can find some where my vpip is around 15 or 40 for 100 hand samples, so that being said I don't think his stats should be taken that seriously. I'm not saying they should be ignored either. I think a more accurate analysis is "ok this guy is probably pretty tight and i should proceed with caution", rather than "this is a nit i must be behind."

B. The fish cold-calling greatly increases UTG's range here. If i'm villain here i'm probably calling with a large portion of my UTG opening range. I interpret his flop action to be either a monster, or he wants to play the pot with the donk and wants to see where you are at. Given that, I think Hero needs to at least call the flop bet and re-evaluate the turn.

---

Wow very solid post, thanks.

yeah, thanks lambchop. I know that 100 hands isnt a meaningful sample, and villain may be a 22/14 on a shitty run of cards, but more often than not its pretty close to accurate. That being said, i still think this is a correct fold.