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Anymore value here?
No reads at all. Been at the table for about 3 mins.
I pot the turn and then pot the river.
** Game ID 1528813642 starting - 2007-07-31 11:56:43
** Frankfurt [Hold 'em] (0.25|0.50 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money
- sladder12 sitting in seat 1 with $63.95
- AHiltz sitting in seat 2 with $52.45
- n1stew sitting in seat 3 with $58.59
- Nalle1978 sitting in seat 4 with $63.43
- nawab2 sitting in seat 5 with $89.44
- sixxpak sitting in seat 6 with $114.90 [Dealer]
sladder12 posted the small blind - $0.25
AHiltz posted the big blind - $0.50
** Dealing card to AHiltz: :4d: :8c:
n1stew called - $0.50
Nalle1978 folded
nawab2 folded
sixxpak folded
sladder12 folded
AHiltz checked
** Dealing the flop: :6d: :Jc: :5s:
AHiltz checked
n1stew checked
** Dealing the turn: :7d:
AHiltz bet - $1.25
n1stew called - $1.25
** Dealing the river: :Kc:
AHiltz bet - $3.75
n1stew raised - $15.00
AHiltz ????
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We have to believe we're ahead and if he has 89 then nh and we pay him off.
Unless I'm missing something obvious, I raise to $30 and call if he pushes.
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If this was higher stakes and against a good opponent I could see a call here ...maybe. There are so many hands he could have other than 89 that I'm gonna push in this particular spot.
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Push that shit and watch 2 pair pay you off.
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Yes, anyone's raising range would be pretty wide on the river in this small pot. If I was in opponent's place, I would raise a ton of hands.
Now time for a little over-analysis:
Your only job is to estimate if his call-3bet-shoves-on-the-river-in-small-pots range is wide enough that you're going to profit in the long run vs the few times he does have 89. Its a pretty easy assumption in this hand, but something to keep in mind in future hands.
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I was not worried about 89. I quickly considered min raising and shoving and since shoving was only about $15 more, I just shoved. He folded. Thus this thread. Just wanted to see what other people have had success with.
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This sounds an awful lot like Sklansky's bet sizing with the nuts in ToP. I guess you need to weigh how fishy the villain is and put % on his likelyhood to call your different bet sizes. A min-raise may get a call from 2pr that a push would not, but overall I like the push.
Given we have better showdown hand.
if you think villain calls min-raise 70% of the time:
additional EV = $15 *.7 = $10.50
if you think villain calls push 30% of time:
additional EV = $35 *.3 = $10.50
Break even point. I guess I like the min-raise/call a push method. Maybe Top 2 pair or a set pushes over you. Kevster wins!