Excuse me, thats not a pot sized bet!

Opp is 17/10.
I have a number of hands on him but no actual notes so hes not really done anything. I sometimes call here preflop rather than reraise, hence one of those spots.
(can someone PM me how to use the convertor for AP!!)
Thoughts?

200NL 6max Absolute Poker

Seat 6 - Hero ($416 in chips)
Seat 1 - __DANUTZ67__ ($313.85 in chips)
Seat 2 - OMY1980 ($128.05 in chips)
Seat 3 -Villain ($203 in chips)
Seat 4 - MRSTAXX_1100 ($118.50 in chips)
Seat 5 - BERGGREN ($986.55 in chips)
__DANUTZ67__ - Posts small blind $1
OMY1980 - Posts big blind $2

Preflop
Dealt to Hero :Ad: :Kh:
Villain - Raises $8 to $8, MRSTAXX_1100 - Folds, BERGGREN - Folds, hero - Calls $8, __DANUTZ67__ - Folds, OMY1920 - calls

Flop ($24)
:9h: :2d: :Kd:
OMY1920 checks, Villain - Bets $22, Hero- Calls $22, OM1920 folds.

Turn ($68)
:9h: :2d: :Kd: :Jh:
Villain - All-In $173, Hero calls...?

weird spot.

I think if hero raised here PF, and villain was leading into us on both streets, I'd be more inclined to fold, since he's gotta put us on something like AK here.

Your hand is pretty well disguised, so as played I'm more leaning to a call. But still.. weird line. Would he play AA like this? I think I still fold, though I probably raise the flop as played.

I lean towards calling, because this is some serious leveling if he does this with a big hand. I just looks like a draw looking for FE.

You're pretty much in the dark here as a result of playing passively pre-flop and on the flop. (I assume this pre-flop/flop play is more as a variation than the rule).

A call here is a gamble I don't like to make without a specific read. I try to make it my business only to call big raises like this when I am certain it is EV+ to do so. (Not necessarily hugely EV+ but hugely certain that it is EV+)

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Originally Posted by HiLo

You're pretty much in the dark here as a result of playing passively pre-flop and on the flop. (I assume this pre-flop/flop play is more as a variation than the rule).

A call here is a gamble I don't like to make without a specific read. I try to make it my business only to call big raises like this when I am certain it is EV+ to do so. (Not necessarily hugely EV+ but hugely certain that it is EV+)

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agreed. I wouldnt call here without two things.
1. Expecting to get squeezed a lot by a wide range.
2. I need to vary my play from time to time.

Both were present here.

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

I wouldnt call here without two things.
1. Expecting to get squeezed a lot by a wide range.
2. I need to vary my play from time to time.

Both were present here.

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Yep. But I would also be asking
What is his perception of me? Have I been floating many hands recently?Has he recently had any big hands outdrawn? etc etc before I make the call..

...but maybe I am just a nit!

Raising the flop is out of the question because i doubt opp ever stacks off with worse.

Truthfully i fold but the decision is very marginal and it doesnt really matter what you did.

some points re metagame -

If this is towards the start of a long session and the table has some observant aggro players on it, then calling and losing the showdown might not necessarily be a bad thing in the long run!

having said that - i notice you are sat to the left of a guy with almost $1k in front of him. With $400 in front of me my main objective at this table is to take as much of his stack as possible :D

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Originally Posted by HiLo

some points re metagame -

If this is towards the start of a long session and the table has some observant aggro players on it, then calling and losing the showdown might not necessarily be a bad thing in the long run!

having said that - i notice you are sat to the left of a guy with almost $1k in front of him. With $400 in front of me my main objective at this table is to take as much of his stack as possible :D

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the only time im getting money off berggern is a bluff or set over set.
I hardly ever play with him but he seems to own everyone else. I just dont play big pots with him and we're pretty even vs one another.

On a related note, if IM villain is this an easier fold?

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

On a related note, if IM villain is this an easier fold?

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Not sure what you mean. Villain is taking the lead?

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Raising the flop is out of the question because i doubt opp ever stacks off with worse.

Truthfully i fold but the decision is very marginal and it doesnt really matter what you did.

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We're not pushing the flop, to get opp to stack on the flop. We're raising the flop, and I think its very opp dependent on whether worse hands will call.

I think there are some nits that will fold worse, and others that will certainly call a flop raise with JJ+ to look up a potential FD, KQ, and some draws will call as well.

I think if we're raising a diamond draw in this spot sometimes, then we can certainly raise a disguised AK other times.

I would expect to see a combo draw so often that I might just call, but...

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

the decision is very marginal and it doesnt really matter what you did.

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you should be 3betting preflop nearly all the time. i don't know why you're trying to mix up here. i think it putting too much thought into a simple situation.

personally, i probably raise with AK in this spot 98% of the time if not 100%. there's no need to mix it up by just calling here. IMO you're overcomplicating things.

i appreciate trying to mix it up, but how much value are you actually gaining by mixing it up? will he remember this hand? will it even get to showdown? and is he thinking deep enough about your hand anyway? does he know your play really well, that mixing it up here makes a difference?
i think not. play standard pf and take the blinds or take control of the hand when you see the flop.

i think i call the turn push (hoping that i'm ahead). i probs raise flop.
actually i know i call turn bet, just because of his oversized bet. i put him on a combodraw or Kx

I'm a nit so I fold.
I think decent players at your level push alot of turns - with draws and made hands for balance.
Slightly more often though when they were the pre-flop caller their turn push is draw and as pfr their turn push is a made hand.
In this situation this seems more likely as he has 10% pfr range total & his pfr is under the gun.
So alot of the time his only non-pair hands are Ak, AQ, KQs maybe and as you have A of diamonds & K of hearts he's unlikely to be pushing flush draw on turn.
& no hands really have a straight draw - (that he raises pre)
So unless he has complete air (which is unlikely as you would have noted it prior, given the amount of hands you have with him.)
I think it would be -ev to call in this scenario,

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Originally Posted by noble007

I think decent players at your level push alot of turns - with draws and made hands for balance.

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no. the turn push for 3x the pot is rare at any level

Thats true.
But I dont think a 17/10 utg raiser (who is unlikely to have a flush draw as mentioned earlier) is doing this with air on such a scary board.
(Miffed hasn't noted him getting out of line before.)
I think its more likely that he has a hand which he still thinks is best but on this board where 50% of rivers will be scare cards (any diamond, heart, Queen, Ace) he'd rather push - which might look like a bluff /draw- or get legitimately called by a few worse hands than play this river oop against a good opponent.

Note - that may not be true, I may just be trying to justify my earlier post :)

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Originally Posted by griffey24

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Raising the flop is out of the question because i doubt opp ever stacks off with worse.

Truthfully i fold but the decision is very marginal and it doesnt really matter what you did.

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We're not pushing the flop, to get opp to stack on the flop. We're raising the flop, and I think its very opp dependent on whether worse hands will call.

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If we raise the flop there's no getting away from playing for stacks.

Miffed is this one of those I was villain things? I thought it was at first but doubted it after you said you villain was 17/10.

opp's thinking is like:

''Duh Eh Duh Eh What the hell will i do here, Ldo Shove? Yeah shoves good. Hmm why is shove good? hmm hmm strongest move i can make is a shove so............*click*''

Only god and his mother know what he is doing here!!! :D

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Raising the flop is out of the question because i doubt opp ever stacks off with worse.

Truthfully i fold but the decision is very marginal and it doesnt really matter what you did.

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We're not pushing the flop, to get opp to stack on the flop. We're raising the flop, and I think its very opp dependent on whether worse hands will call.

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If we raise the flop there's no getting away from playing for stacks.

Miffed is this one of those I was villain things? I thought it was at first but doubted it after you said you villain was 17/10.

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In short, Yes. Im new to AP hence the nitty stats (prob more like 18/15 but w/e.
im squarely trying to understand if and why opp stacks off with AK here in this type of pot considering i havent done anything to get out of line and a 3x pot bet makes no sense. This is pretty easy to do at 25nl but not at 200nl.
However, i did put opp on this hand and thought it largely possible he would call considering if my move is a bluff it doesnt make much sense and bad bluffs are where the info opps gets doesnt make sense right?
Also, pushing pretty much the nuts for 3x the pot does my table image good when i start doing it to steal on horrible rivers for opps. And AP 200nl is mostly all regs.

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you should be 3betting preflop nearly all the time. i don't know why you're trying to mix up here. i think it putting too much thought into a simple situation.

personally, i probably raise with AK in this spot 98% of the time if not 100%. there's no need to mix it up by just calling here. IMO you're overcomplicating things.

i appreciate trying to mix it up, but how much value are you actually gaining by mixing it up? will he remember this hand? will it even get to showdown? and is he thinking deep enough about your hand anyway? does he know your play really well, that mixing it up here makes a difference?
i think not. play standard pf and take the blinds or take control of the hand when you see the flop.

i think i call the turn push (hoping that i'm ahead). i probs raise flop.
actually i know i call turn bet, just because of his oversized bet. i put him on a combodraw or Kx

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Agreed mostly, however i dont always see the need to reraise given i can win the pot in position a lot anyway and in this game i get the feeling opps are stacking off lighter than i expected particularly oop.
but by all means, i reraise 90 if not 95% of the time here.

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Originally Posted by pokerroomace

you should be 3betting preflop nearly all the time. i don't know why you're trying to mix up here. i think it putting too much thought into a simple situation.

personally, i probably raise with AK in this spot 98% of the time if not 100%. there's no need to mix it up by just calling here. IMO you're overcomplicating things.

i appreciate trying to mix it up, but how much value are you actually gaining by mixing it up? will he remember this hand? will it even get to showdown? and is he thinking deep enough about your hand anyway? does he know your play really well, that mixing it up here makes a difference?
i think not. play standard pf and take the blinds or take control of the hand when you see the flop.

i think i call the turn push (hoping that i'm ahead). i probs raise flop.
actually i know i call turn bet, just because of his oversized bet. i put him on a combodraw or Kx

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Chop the pot
...he has AK

I'd be surprised if villain didn't have AA here a lot a lot.

I think this is a fold because if we merge the ranges we have an inkling of (set/AA/AK/Combo-draw) we must be drawing dead enough times to make it a fold and we're only 70% fav against a combo draw as well.

Obviously, if we think the bet sizing is a strong sign of a draw than that changes things. I for one think the bet size could equally be someone playing a set very oddly hoping for you to make a hero call or fold a big draw that he's 'protecting against'.
I think i'm leaning even more towards fold having thought it through...

Results soon!!!

The vast majority of the time I see a villain take this line it's a bluff.

fwiw, im villain not hero (my hand was irrelevant i was interested in the AK call)
I had a set of nines.

i like how you played it.