Disclaimer: If you havn't read and understood this post: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-57951.htm
Some of this may not make sense.
Common questions:
Am I playing the right stakes?
When should I move up?
I have $x, what limits should I play?
I happen to think that these questions are some of the toughest that are asked on this site, and moreover I think some Horrendous advice is given. Especially to beginners.
The norm is to stick to something like the 20 buyins rule for ring, or the 30 buyins rule for sngs or the 100 buyins rule for Mtts.
So someone new comes on (as happened today) and they say, I have 30 buyins for the stakes I play, is this enough? And the advice fired back is "You're way over rolled. You only need 20, move up!" We'll come back to this example.
Firstly lets look at what over rolled actually means
Playing over-rolled strictly means that for typical values of x at your stakes, you prefer to take a 50% chance at 2x rather than keeping x for certain.
Read that statement again. It means you are risk prone. You want to gamble. If you prefer the 50% chance of 2x rather than x then there is necessarily some y<50 for which you are indifferent between keeping x for certain of having y% chance at 2x!
Now when you think of it like that, it's easy to see how you can lose money. Obviously you don't think in the strict terms I stated above, but the attitude is revealed in your play. Losing is a drop in the ocean, so why not gamble on those close decisions. This attitude in close decisions will cost you money.
Another corollary to this, is that the money you are winning is no longer as important or satisfying. You become sloppy.
Another definition of being over-rolled
Strictly my first definition is correct, but it may not always be the whole story. Your goals and aspirations for your Bankroll are very personal.
You are over-rolled if there exists a choice of stake higher than the one you play for which your utility for the combined winrate and variance at that stake is higher than at the one you are playing. (For in depth discussion on utilities see the post limked at the top).
Lets think about this carefully: You have a bankroll. You really don't want to lose it and that is reflected in your utility function in the way discussed in my last post on Bankrolls linked at the top. However, you want it to grow as quickly as possible and there may be a level for which allows you to increase it faster whilst still keeping you happy about not being under rolled.
This last bit is so important. If you are not happy at a higher stake in the way outlined in the last post, Don't play there, even if Doyle Brunson himself tells you to.
Now of course to be over rolled for the stakes you play, it assumes you can win at the higher stake. This is also terribly important. How do you know whether you can win at the higher stake though?
You can never know, but you can do the following 2 things:
1. Make sure you can win at your current stake.
2. Take chances or "shots"
Taking Shots
Set aside a small portion of your bankroll for playing the higher limits with. This portion must be such that the remaining left over does not leve you under rolled (in the way specified before) for your current stakes.
You must also be comfortable with taking a slightly +EV gamble all at once for this whole portion. This is important in the sense stated in the last post.
Use this portion to feel your way into the higher game. Once you are comfortable playing there and you are not under rolled (in the sense of the article above) then you are ready to move up and should.
What are the dangers of playing over rolled?
1. Your utility for playing at a higher stake is greater than your utility for playing at your current stake.
Meaning everytime you buyin to the lower game, you are making a bad decision and costing yourself money.
2. You slow your improvement and limit your enjoyment.
These are really tied into the utility statement above but I thought I'd point them out to make them clear.
How do I recognise that I'm over rolled?
Look out for signs of reckless play and the "I can afford it" attitude.
You are a winning player at your current stakes. (and not slightly, but solid)
You could lose quite a lot before you considered yourself under rolled.
What to do
Take shots.
Estimate what your winrate could be at the higher stakes and ask people who know your game and can beat the stakes you would move to for advice.
Do what feels right. I know that seems like weird advice in such a technical post but your feelings about something can often be a decent estimator of your utility for it.
Giving advice
Before you tell someone they're over rolled be very careful. If you had their bankroll and were playing at their stakes then you might be over rolled but remember that everyone is different. Their risk attitudes are different. Their skill is different. Their aims for their Bankroll are different. All of these come together to provide a utility for playing at each stake, and unless you can evaluate that you know Jack shit for certain.
Thats not to say that knowing a player and how good he is cannot suggest he may be over rolled. And thats also not to say that helping people you believe to be good enough to win at a level above where they are may not be a good thing to do.
But saying "You only need 20 buyins" to a complete stranger, is totally irresponsible, and for the following reason.
You may be advising them to play under rolled
Remember that playing under rolled was also a personal thing and if anything is sure when it comes to playing under rolled, it's that risk of ruin is real.
Do you want to be responsible for someone losing more than they want to?
If you are a new player and want to know what stakes to play, then firstly, congratulations on reading my 2 posts. Secondly, do you know about pot odds, implied odds, and conservative starting hand ranges. If not , and you have upwards of $250 I suggest you start at 10NL or on the $5.50 SNGs and read read read. This forum, books, everything.
If you do, then you must be playing somewhere. Can you beat it? If so try the 20-30 buyin rule, but take shots and don't commit just yet. Are you comfortable? Are you winning?
BR management is such a personal thing. We can give advice but if specific it better be taylored to the player, and you better know them.
My advice to anyone asking about what stakes to play, would be to first read these two articles. Then, see how they feel, who they are, what they want and how good they are.
NEVER play Under rolled, and try to recognise whether or not you are over rolled and do something about it.
Playing over rolled is not ideal, but of the 2 evils, it is by far the lesser.
Thanks for reading.
