NL HOLDEM Bluffing, dont be shy...
Alot of players ive been talking to really have a problem pulling the trigger in NL holdem. No 50NL players but 400NL and up, where you might have to throw 70 80 bucks out there. To most of us thats a chunk of change, by no way life changing but alot of dough to throw in there with nothing.........wrong..
What about this....
You have AsQh
board is A:d: 9:d: 2:d: K:c:
its heads up and your first to act theres 120 in the pot....how do you feel about putting in 80 now? howabout with J:d: Td:? how about raising your oppent with those hands?
its pretty close to the same thing givin fold equity with the draw. Players might feel like puting in money on a bluf raise or bet on the come or with a gutshot or somthing is spewing while with the AQ its more value betting.
Honestly Mathmatical expectation is very close. Bluffing when you think there is a good chance your oppent will fold, has very similar expectaition to just flat out betting a good hand...lets see here
Lets say on the turn
A:d: 9:d: 2:d: K:c:
POT=100
You have J:d: T:d:
your oppent bets 50...
if you think your oppent might have the drawor a weak ace and they can fold a hand, raise!!!!!
Lets say they will fold if you raise 150 to go (or raise 100 more) 50% of the time.
There other half of the time they call and you fold when you miss your flush. To keep things simple lest say that your oppent only has 100 more behind him (to keep us from debating how much more we could make on the river cause that isnt the point right now) so he has 100 more behind him and you raise 100 to 150.
your about 20% or 4-1 to hit your flush.
lets break it down and run this 10 times
5 times your oppent folds (50%) and you win 150x5 (750) of the other 5 times you win once (20%) for not 150 but 250 because he calls your 100, An you lose your 150 raise the other 4 times
+ 750 (FE) + 250 (hitting the flush) - 600 (getting called and missing)
+400$ or 40 bucks a handm, sweet.
ok same board
A:d: 9:d: 2:d: K:c:
you have A:h: J:h:
100 in the pot.
Yur oppent could have a flush draw or a weaker ace, you figure theres a 20% chance he has Aces up , (because hes a donk and playse ace trash) , and another 20% chance he has AQ or AK. you bet 100 in to the150 pot to stop the fl draw from calling correctly. becuase here we have no FE.
now 2/10 times the flush hits and you lose 300 2/10 times your oppent had a bigger ace, aces up, or makes aces up and you lose 300, 4/10 times you win 250 (100 + 150pot) +1000 -600 = 400 or 40 a hand!!
Now this example is a little docted yes but its not far off from the average hand. I just wanted to illistrate that semibluffing really has about the same equity as betting a decent hand when there are outs aginst you.
First think about how ofter your oppent will fold for how much/ Normally its corect to bet more to make him fold more often, ive done the math, just trust me. If in this cas a 200 Dollar raise makes him fold 80% and a 150 raise makes him fold 50% raise the 200 theres more equity, do the math youll see.
Any way hopes this helps some of you newbs pull that trigger, dont think your tossing dead money into a pot, its just like betting a hand.
Re: NL HOLDEM Bluffing, dont be shy...
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHAKE
Alot of players ive been talking to really have a problem pulling the trigger in NL holdem. No 50NL players but 400NL and up, where you might have to throw 70 80 bucks out there. To most of us thats a chunk of change, by no way life changing but alot of dough to throw in there with nothing.........wrong..
.
.
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Any way hopes this helps some of you newbs pull that trigger, dont think your tossing dead money into a pot, its just like betting a hand.
Man you have totally opened my eyes, and I can see how that isn't at all inconsistent with your previous post here
I look forward to more of your words of wisdom, thank the stars for your presence here.
