Using "Ranges"

Here's the scenario:
3 limpers to you on a loose table, you raise the (4.5 BB) pot to 10BB with AKo.
Folded around to an EP limper, who re-raises all-in (40BB).
You have to call 30BB into a 54.5 BB pot (84.5 BB after your call, if you make it).

You know the EP limp-reraiser is tight.

You give him a range of:
10% AK
15% JJ
15% QQ
30% KK
30% AA

I don't have any software to calculate if this is a call or not, but let's just say that pokerstove calls this a fold, given the ranges.

You fold, as your divined ranges dictate. Villain flips AKo. Was there a mistake here, if any? Was the fold a mistake, because the your odds were favorable (you would've divied up the blinds), or was it good, because your odds were unfavorable (most of the time you'd be behind, sometimes crushed)?

This all assumes your ranges are pristine.

I'm not very good at 'pokerstove in my head' but I think this is an easy fold. You really should never hope for a split pot, nor should you be hoping for a coinflip situation in CALLING.. pushing yes but not when calling.

You can weight ranges in Pokerstove by taking out some of the possible combinations that make up each individual holdings.

For instance, if you though AA was 1/3 as likely as KK in a hand you will give villain this range:

AdAh
AdAc
KdKc
KdKs
KdKh
KcKs
KcKh
KhKs

You do this by clicking Preflop for each individual player, then clicking the certain hand then editing the suit possibilites.

In your situation, if AA/KK are 30% then you should have 20 seperate holdings for the opponent, therefore his range looks like this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

270,544,032 games 0.234 secs 1,156,171,076 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.467% 62.83% 04.63% 169993448 12534628.00 { KK+, QcQd, QdQh, QhQs, JcJd, JdJh, JhJs, AhKs, AsKh }
Hand 1: 32.533% 27.90% 04.63% 75481328 12534628.00 { AKo }


---

i usually call these shorties

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bigslikk

You fold, as your divined ranges dictate. Villain flips AKo. Was there a mistake here, if any? Was the fold a mistake, because the your odds were favorable (you would've divied up the blinds), or was it good, because your odds were unfavorable (most of the time you'd be behind, sometimes crushed)?

This all assumes your ranges are pristine.

---

According to FToP, the folding is mistake, because you choose 0 EV move instead of +EV move (EV=your PFR size+dead money).

According to "hand range" folding is correct, because calling costs you more, than equity in pot you have. Against entire range, calling has EV<0.

You can't use FToP because you don't know exact hand of villain. With less accurate info (ranges instead of particular hand), decision can change.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

i usually call these shorties

---

Agreed. Ranges of shorties pushing all in preflop can be very large, much larger than the range you are assuming. Even a tight player can push a wide range of hands if he is short and tilting.

Do you guys use pokerstove a lot? I never use it. How much would it help my game? (it needs all the help it can get)

pokerstove, to me, is useful in that it "teaches" me whether i was right/wrong in a decision. that helps future decisions in similar situations.

to OP. this gets me in a lot of trouble here at FTR, but i fold most times. AK sucks when you miss the flop, and against someone willing to push, you cant feel good when you miss, especially, with no more betting/bluffing possible.

marginal situations, to me, are to be avoided in ring games. save your "super calls" for when you have the advantage, most likely.

you "lose" so little by folding, and have no way of knowing if you will win 50% of the time by calling...why risk it? what we KNOW: 1) he would do this with JJ+...bad for us. 2) he would do this with AJ+..good for us provided we have SEEN him do this. 3) any pp has us beat...bad. 4) any two unpaired under us we are 65/35...good, but is that an edge you want to risk your stack on?

more on point 4... theoretically, yes, you would risk your stack on a 60/40 or 65/35 all day long...but how often do they come up? with this guy? how often is it a rock? a TAG...that wont do this with 9Ts?

you would have to play poker A LONG TIME, imo, to get this situation often enough against a wide enough range to see the results pan out over variance. you could get lucky, but again why risk it now when you can wait for a better spot?

in a tourney, this situation is completely different.

although, the others are prolly right, mathematically, with the EV calculations, its just not something i want to get mixed up in...math or not.

fold.

Yeah I posted this because I got shit at the table last night for this fold (which I showed like a noob, prompting the Rock (Tight-Passive) player to proudly display his Big Slick. I'm not trying to justify a mistake, but- okay, actually I am.
I gave him AQ at worst (very unlikely) and I've seen this Rcck get sinfully paid off in this spot by donks dozens of times, and all these memories involved him trapping with rockets. Figured I was screwed and folded.

Later I was talking with someone from the table and they were saying- it's a race w/ queens and jacks... maybe my fold was too quick?

I didn't come up with "percentages" for his ranges, merely weighed aces and kings as pretty likely. Nevertheless pokerstove would prob. be a good investment.

Today I was watching an EPT Pokerstars final table tournament on TV. The first hand 68 of hearts limped early, 77 limper behind, then K9o raised on the button. 68 re-raised all in then 77 called. both were shorties.

pokerstove is free. just download it, and enjoy.

awesome
btw how do weight different holdings?

theirs a tutorial with it somewhere. it will show you its "lingo."

cant remember off the top of my head, but its pretty straightforward.

I see so many people make this call with AK

I call all ins with AK against any player with 40bb or less, its very often AJ, AQ, even suited A's from A7-A10. You are giving shorties wayyyy too much credit. You are often dominating them. This is an instacall for me, especially with so much in the pot already. Unless he has KK or AA you have pot odds anyway even vs. JJ...

Shorties do the dumbest things. Part of their strategy is that because they have less money, they often get people to fold by going AI in a pot that represents 25% of their stack. A full stack can't push, because the pot is comparitively small. So you have to realize by nature for shorties its EV+ to push a wider range. They often just do some stuff.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($127)
Hero ($312.50)
UTG ($116.55)
MP ($74.30)
Button ($33.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
2 folds, Button raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($7) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button raises to $16, Hero raises to $308.5, Button folds.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Chopper

pokerstove, to me, is useful in that it "teaches" me whether i was right/wrong in a decision. that helps future decisions in similar situations.

to OP. this gets me in a lot of trouble here at FTR, but i fold most times. AK sucks when you miss the flop, and against someone willing to push, you cant feel good when you miss, especially, with no more betting/bluffing possible.

marginal situations, to me, are to be avoided in ring games. save your "super calls" for when you have the advantage, most likely.

you "lose" so little by folding, and have no way of knowing if you will win 50% of the time by calling...why risk it? what we KNOW: 1) he would do this with JJ+...bad for us. 2) he would do this with AJ+..good for us provided we have SEEN him do this. 3) any pp has us beat...bad. 4) any two unpaired under us we are 65/35...good, but is that an edge you want to risk your stack on?

more on point 4... theoretically, yes, you would risk your stack on a 60/40 or 65/35 all day long...but how often do they come up? with this guy? how often is it a rock? a TAG...that wont do this with 9Ts?

you would have to play poker A LONG TIME, imo, to get this situation often enough against a wide enough range to see the results pan out over variance. you could get lucky, but again why risk it now when you can wait for a better spot?

in a tourney, this situation is completely different.

although, the others are prolly right, mathematically, with the EV calculations, its just not something i want to get mixed up in...math or not.

fold.

---

Too bad Unibet dont has good handhistory.

Cuz i had similiar hand on finale tabel on a 500$ freeroll.
I was lucky won and won with a straight and cracked the AA with my AK.
Think my Neighbours could hear me scream YES YES YES FUCKING YES