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A/Q Late Position
Am i beat here? ... no reads on opponent...
Hand #42331775-49545 at Akbar (No Limit Hold'em)
Started at 04/Jul/07 23:23:43
tmachine is at seat 0 with $45.85.
WCFields is at seat 1 with $24.25.
HERO is at seat 2 with $51.40.
woejoe05 is at seat 3 with $54.25 (sitting out).
jonnyocean is at seat 4 with $58.40.
coldoutside is at seat 5 with $33.50.
FortuneFool is at seat 6 with $49.50.
stlmm is at seat 7 with $22.60.
IMBLUFFING is at seat 8 with $23.75.
Pakboong is at seat 9 with $58.50.
The button is at seat 2.
jonnyocean posts the small blind of $.25.
coldoutside posts the big blind of $.50.
tmachine: -- --
WCFields: -- --
HERO: Qd Ad
jonnyocean: -- --
coldoutside: -- --
FortuneFool: -- --
stlmm: -- --
IMBLUFFING: -- --
Pakboong: -- --
Pre-flop:
FortuneFool calls. stlmm folds. IMBLUFFING folds.
Pakboong folds. tmachine folds. WCFields folds.
HERO raises to $2.50. jonnyocean calls.
coldoutside folds. FortuneFool calls.
Flop (board: As Ks Kd):
jonnyocean bets $8. FortuneFool folds. HERO
raises to $19. jonnyocean calls.
Turn (board: As Ks Kd 8d):
jonnyocean goes all-in for $36.90. HERO goes
all-in for $29.90. jonnyocean is returned $7
(uncalled).
River (board: As Ks Kd 8d 2h):
(no action in this round)
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I think villain has a king 90% of the time in this spot. You showed strength both preflop and on the flop, yet villain still pushes turn for the remaining 2/3 of their stack.
Let's see is you have enough outs to call:
2 Aces + 8 diamonds = 11 outs (22%). This is best case scenerio, in that villain has Kx and hasn't boated yet.
Pot at time of push is $72 (considering rake), and you need to invest another $30. To show a profitable call, you need to win the pot on the river GREATER than 1 in 3.4 opportunities (29%). Pending a good read and a certainty that villain has a king and has yet to boat, this is a no call. If you think villain can be bluffing, the 29% will drop closer to 22%.
Or, maybe he's drawing dead.
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you´re wa/wb on this flop, villians overbet doesn´t make any sense and when u raise him u atually decide to felt on turn. i´d call the flop, fold to turn shove, take a cheap sd.