Playing AA with a dirty flop out of position

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06-13-2007, 09:25 PM
I Like Pie

Playing AA with a dirty flop out of position

This flop must of have hit him right in the face. How do you proceed with this?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($193)
UTG ($115.35)
MP ($36)
CO ($125.40)
Button ($150.45)
SB ($100.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
UTG raises to $3.5, 4 folds, Hero raises to $18, UTG calls $14.50.

Flop: ($36.50) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero...
06-13-2007, 09:28 PM
Pelion

Bet out and proceed with caution. Dont put too much more in if he sticks around.
06-13-2007, 11:37 PM
Fnord

check/fold
06-14-2007, 12:45 AM
|~|ypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

check/fold

what?!
06-14-2007, 03:29 AM
minSim

Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)

Maybe c/c flop, fold turn? Or block bet turn?
06-14-2007, 09:22 AM
I Like Pie

Quote:

Originally Posted by minSim

Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)

If he has AQ we're screwed too.
06-14-2007, 09:48 AM
Pelion

Im sure if we bet out say $20, he folds often enough for this to be goot.

Say he has:

Calls | Folds | Folds
TT/JJ/KK | QQ/AK | low PP/SCs 10%

Then he has a calling hand 12 times, and a folding hand 18 times (ignoring the junk) so Its worth betting.

If he never folds AK then its

Calls | Folds
TT/JJ/KK/AK | QQ / low PPs/SCs

Calls 18, Folds 12.

Calls 18/30 * 0.9 = 54%
Folds 12/30 *0.9 + 0.1(from the junk) = 46%

I think we get immediate value from making a cbet of $20 or so. (Using these percentages it comes out to be about +$9). Add to that the fact that if he just calls we still have a probably 2 outs to the full pot AND we disguise the times we flop the set/straight and I think a bet is pretty mandatory as long as we don't continue if called/raised.
06-14-2007, 09:51 AM
minSim

Quote:

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

Quote:

Originally Posted by minSim

Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)

If he has AQ we're screwed too.

Hehehe, I say C/F!!
06-14-2007, 10:44 AM
griffey24

I think we're making too many assumptions on utg's range, without knowing any reads/stats. You have any stats on villain?

I mean, I agree that hero re-raised it hard, so we have to narrow his range somewhat on the PF call. But I think there are a lot of ppl calling with low pairs here, thinking they have odds for a set etc.. that we shouldn't just be check/folding so easily?

I agree fold to resistance.. but certainly not give up right away!

I'm with pelion on this one.. bet out.
06-14-2007, 11:08 AM
|~|ypermegachi

i just think C/F is giving up too easily. why are you not putting 22-99 in their range?
06-14-2007, 11:42 AM
IowaSkinsFan

why not bet fold or is that to shitty?
06-14-2007, 01:29 PM
I Like Pie

Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands
06-14-2007, 01:32 PM
Warpe

Quote:

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

bet
06-14-2007, 02:26 PM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet!
06-14-2007, 03:07 PM
zenbitz

He is just as scared of this board as you are.

Either it hit him, or it didn't. Even if you think he has a wide range you should check, because he won't bluff on this board. You are ahead of exactly everything that folds, and behind almost everything that calls - the exception being exactly AK/KQ or club draw.
06-14-2007, 03:27 PM
sauce123

bet/fold or c/c
c/f turn either way tho unless hes crazy
06-14-2007, 08:02 PM
mixchange

Bet $20 and fold to a re-raise. There's a lot in his range that has us dead, but just as much that we're ahead. I think either he folds to your bet and or he calls/re-raises with us behind or close to it.

I think the worst thing to do is check/call as we have no clue where he is at.
06-14-2007, 08:46 PM
jtleon

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet!

Im not sure. vp$ip is 35 and pfr is 25?
how can we tell he is raising with wide range from UTG?
vp$ip and pfr data is combination of voluntarily put $ into pot and pre-flop raise from all position.
villian could be vp$ip and pfr alot from other position and not UTG?

any advice. Thanks
06-15-2007, 08:03 PM
Pelion

Quote:

Originally Posted by zenbitz

He is just as scared of this board as you are.

Either it hit him, or it didn't. Even if you think he has a wide range you should check, because he won't bluff on this board. You are ahead of exactly everything that folds, and behind almost everything that calls - the exception being exactly AK/KQ or club draw.

He seems pretty aggro. Dont you think we'll get bluffed off if we check/fold
06-16-2007, 01:34 AM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by jtleon

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet!

Im not sure. vp$ip is 35 and pfr is 25?
how can we tell he is raising with wide range from UTG?
vp$ip and pfr data is combination of voluntarily put $ into pot and pre-flop raise from all position.
villian could be vp$ip and pfr alot from other position and not UTG?

any advice. Thanks

I guess I'm just judging by my stats. But I run about 25/20, and I'm raising all pocket pairs UTG, and some suited connectors sometimes and even some weaker suited aces. His stats are looser than mine, so I'd imagine his range is larger than my UTG range.

Its possible that he's tighter than me UTG, but his range would be similar I'd think.
06-16-2007, 02:24 AM
benny999

i would prob c/c the flop. not sure about the turn, but c/f might be best.
06-16-2007, 03:24 PM
Geanosssss

check/fold is dumb
06-16-2007, 03:31 PM
bigspenda73

how is that 3wpp? Do articles not count? Is "is" an article?
06-18-2007, 02:21 PM
zenbitz

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how is that 3wpp? Do articles not count? Is "is" an article?

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