Pay-Off Wizard?

I've just had an argument with a friend about being a pay-off wizard so I figured I'd post this and see what ppl think.

This isn't a particularly interesting hand, but it's definitely not trivial.

Reads : Villain ran at around 22/9/2 when table was full. Since the start of HU he's leaned towards passive play OOP. He's been leading the river a reasonable amount, enough to make me think he's bluffing a decent frequency, but nothing crazy. He's been getting the best of me so far.

I've been c-betting pretty aggressively (prob about 70%) and raising any 2 suited, Ax, connectors... Pretty standard for HU. I haven't shown down any crap yet.
** Game ID 1427246309 starting - 2007-06-05 22:44:11
** Donnchadh [Hold 'em] (1.00|2.00 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- Genitruc sitting in seat 3 with $240.65 [Dealer]
- Timman_ sitting in seat 4 with $369.56

Genitruc posted the small blind - $1.00
Timman_ posted the big blind - $2.00
** Dealing card to Genitruc: :qh: :8s:
Genitruc raised - $7.00
Timman_ called - $7.00

** Dealing the flop: :qs: :5d: :4c:
Timman_ checked
Genitruc bet - $14.00
Timman_ called - $14.00

** Dealing the turn: :9h:
Timman_ checked
Genitruc checked

** Dealing the river: :as:
Timman_ bet - $21.00
Genitruc called $21.00

how often does he c/c your c-bet?

that river card sucks since it hits A5/A4/A2/A3/32. you beat 76, 86, 87 and mid pairs that are bluffing though.
it's prob at most a small mistake to call.

Bet the turn, no?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Bet the turn, no?

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some of the time, but not all of the time

i was actually trapping here

this is fine. I disagree that it's not trivial. Yes we bet the turn sometimes but we're definetely not folding when the best bluff card has come.

meh you could fold river actually.

I probably pay it off, even if you're not good, at least now you have some insight into what hands he takes this line with. Though I seriously doubt his half pot bet is a steal here.

I fold. If you were c-betting air here (which is what it looks like), you just hit. I'm not sure if you're opponent is thinking like this but i think it's more likely than him thinking the A is a good bluff card.

i def pay it off and i def bet the turn

i think call river. i think checked turn isnt too bad - probs would have bet it myself though for about 1/2 to 2/3 pot.
he could easily be bluffing this river. it looks like you missed and if that's true and you don't have the A then he can pick up the pot. he can also get you to fold lower pairs. more often than not you don't have an A here. just because it's HU doesn't mean he automatically assumes you have an A.

villain had QJ

nh villain

I actually DO think it's a trivially easy call. My friend didn't.

I like the check behind on the turn, and I call river. With your read, I don't see how you could fold river for $21.