ATo blind battle line-check

Villain is 20/16/3.5 over ~500 hands. We haven't really tangled... I've been aggressive but haven't shown down much. He built his stack by calling a big bluff from an uberdonk that has since left the table.

What's your play here?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $2/$4 - 6 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $392.10
UTG+1: $717.50
CO: $499.50
Button: $442
Hero: $410
BB: $742.90

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with T :spade: A :diamond:
4 folds, Hero raises to $16, BB calls.

Flop: T :heart: 3 :heart: 2 :heart: ($32, 2 players)
Hero bets $26, BB calls.

Turn: 3 :club: ($84, 2 players)
Hero bets $70, BB calls.

River: 6 :club: ($224, 2 players)
Hero...

I would say you are ahead here around 90-95% of the time. J-10/K-10 makes up the biggest part of his range IMO, with 7-7/9-9 also possible. If he has any of those TP hands will probably call a small value bet. I just don't like the idea of firing OOP with only TPTK in such a big pot. 80-100 seems to be around the right size.

I suppose in a blind battle villan might show up with a flush here sometimes, though i doubt often enough to stop me from value betting. If you were to check, would you fold to a large bet? Looking at villans stats and the limit, it seems as though he would know a river bet by him would look like a missed FD so wouldn't he only do it if he made his hand?

i'd bet prob 164.

my reasoning is like Vi-Zer0Skill wrote, except i think a 100ish bet will look like value and he would be more likely to raise or fold, whereas a 160-190 bet can rep a 3 barell better and he'd more likely call/fold, while basically only raising if he got tricky and ur beat.
164 is just the amount i bet last time i 3 barelled someone and they made the call with 88 for 3rd pair on a pretty dry board.

bump

Anyone like c/c, repping a missed heart draw and letting a missed heart draw bluff? What do we put him on here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zook

bump

Anyone like c/c, repping a missed heart draw and letting a missed heart draw bluff? What do we put him on here?

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I dunno. What's his river aggression factor and/or reads that he will likely fire?

I'd say it's 80/20 for betting / letting him bluff

LOL just googled villain's sn and found out he's a CR instructor. Good thing to know. Doesn't look like he's doing a lot of recording these days, but maybe this hand will show up in his next video :)

bet less on the turn. your hand isn't good enough to print money, and the river decision will be easier.

i'd bet around $110 for value.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zook

bump

Anyone like c/c, repping a missed heart draw and letting a missed heart draw bluff? What do we put him on here?

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I think a heart draw is a significant part of his range, as well as some TP and smaller pocket pairs.

However, i dislike a c/c for two reasons

1). He is very likely going to check behind the smaller one pair hands that you beat. You can probably get a value bet called by those hands at least half the time.
2). I don't think he is going to bluff river big enough of the time to make value betting less EV. I don't think enough of his range is missed FD, and i think he is going to be bluffing with a missed flush less than half of the time. From his POV your line looks both like a big FD and a made but vulnerable hand. IMO if he thinks(knows? :) ) you are a good player he could also be afraid you will call his river bluff with a bigger missed FD knowing high card could be enough. idk about the last part but i love hero calls :lol:

Paraphrased: I think villan will call a value bet(1/2PSB) slightly more than half of the time and bluff with a missed FD (3/4PSB-PSB)less than half the time, and therefore value betting is +EV.


Looking at the hand again, I like bennys bet size best since we can assume villan can/likes to make big calls and may actually look up a larger sized bet a higher % of the time than he would a bet that looked like it was for value.

bet for value definitely as hes likely a pretty strong player if hes a CR instructor. 180 seems fine. hes never gonna bluff u in this spot and if he does its gonna be a shove which u cant call

Wouldn't betting be folding out any hands we beat? Maybe K10 calls and MAYBE QJ...

Why not check-call, hoping to induce a bluff from a missed heart or anything else?

edit: Sorry, missed a few posts. I like your reasoning Zeroskill.

I really don't think he has QJ :cool: .

CR = cardrunners, right? I'm not a member, but i doubt he teaches people to play flush draws by passively calling near pot sized bets. Like sauce and benny said, make a pretty big bet, you allready said he built his stack by calling a big bluff.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by benny999

i think a 100ish bet will look like value and he would be more likely to raise or fold, whereas a 160-190 bet can rep a 3 barell better and he'd more likely call/fold, while basically only raising if he got tricky and ur beat.

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I really like the thinking on this. In the heat of the moment i wouldn't even consider that villan could just push me off a TPTK hand by making a raise over what looks like a value bet. If we make a big bet he can only raise us if he has a significantly better hand (all i can think of is a flush).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by larsmars

CR = cardrunners, right? I'm not a member, but i doubt he teaches people to play flush draws by passively calling near pot sized bets.

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Good point. I agree that checking hoping to induce a bluff from a missed FD is unlikely to succeed since that probably isn't what he has after he calls the turn.

Ok, I'm on board that turn bet is a little big and betting the river is better than checking.

For the results oriented...

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with T :spade: A :diamond:
4 folds, Hero raises to $16, BB calls.

Flop: T :heart: 3 :heart: 2 :heart: ($32, 2 players)
Hero bets $26, BB calls.

Turn: 3 :club: ($84, 2 players)
Hero bets $70, BB calls.

River: 6 :club: ($224, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $148, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $520
BB showed Ac 3d
Hero mucks Ts Ad