KQo 200NL Postflop play

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05-16-2007, 04:12 PM
Da GOAT

KQo 200NL Postflop play

Opp is about 20/18. has 3 bet me a few times on other tables from BTN when im CO, i folded both times. opp is aware enough i feel to make some plays etc and im sure he thinks im a weak player.

When i checked river i said ''shit'' to myself as i think that i should of bet out.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($257.35)
SB ($262.50)
Hero ($204.75)
UTG ($171.66)
MP ($205)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
2 folds, Button raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $5.

Flop: ($15) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($35) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $25, Hero calls $25.

River: ($85) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $60, Hero ????????
05-16-2007, 04:17 PM
cardsman1992

River sucks, I think you have to fold, but I suck SH so take that FWIW. You only beat a busted str8 draw/JJ/22-33/66-77/AK.

I would 3bet him preflop prob.

Maybe raising turn isn't bad?
05-16-2007, 04:33 PM
Fnord

I look him up here.
05-16-2007, 04:39 PM
|~|ypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by cardsman1992

River sucks, I think you have to fold, but I suck SH so take that FWIW. You only beat a busted str8 draw/JJ/22-33/66-77/AK.

what beats us? AA/KK/AQ/8x.

i don't think we can fold here...
05-16-2007, 04:41 PM
sauce123

easy easy river call imo. Betting out is fine also depending on history. My real question is wtf were u thinking on the flop??

i mean, generally the OOP float is a move wasted at 200nl and one which i do maybe once every 15k hands at 3/6 (or less).
05-16-2007, 05:10 PM
Silly String

Interested to see what he had. I fold this, he seems to like his hand very much. His button raising range includes a few 8s, and he could have AA, KK, AQ here too. There really isn't a draw for him to be betting, so would he fire 3 streets with missed overs or JJ/99 here? I wouldn't, I fold.
05-16-2007, 05:53 PM
sauce123

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silly String

Interested to see what he had. I fold this, he seems to like his hand very much. His button raising range includes a few 8s, and he could have AA, KK, AQ here too. There really isn't a draw for him to be betting, so would he fire 3 streets with missed overs or JJ/99 here? I wouldn't, I fold.

yes but with out line we never have an 8. id probably bet JJ TT for value in this spot if i were him
05-16-2007, 06:24 PM
Da GOAT

Quote:

Originally Posted by sauce123

easy easy river call imo. Betting out is fine also depending on history. My real question is wtf were u thinking on the flop??

i mean, generally the OOP float is a move wasted at 200nl and one which i do maybe once every 15k hands at 3/6 (or less).

Well i wanted to float but with the suspicion i could hold an 8. i thought raising flop shows less of a chance ive an 8 plus i may be cheaper if i could get turn to check through and lead river (which can still include an 8 in my range).

When you say wasted!! do you mean its just not appreciated enough at these limits. perhaps the bets you make at the end (whether u got a hand or not) just dont profit enough to bother playing.

I agree i ruined the chance to rep an 8 when i should of bet river. Could of raised turn too.
05-16-2007, 10:08 PM
Silly String

Quote:

Originally Posted by sauce123

yes but with out line we never have an 8. id probably bet JJ TT for value in this spot if i were him

Yeah, but that is a large value bet isn't it? What calls that bet, if the villain is betting for thin value? 55-77?
05-17-2007, 12:43 AM
sauce123

silly string- check out my thread on "two-way bets" and stuff like that for more of an explanation of why sometimes im (attemping to) making large bets on the end which have approx. 0 ev.

The villain is betting for value here a very low percentage of the time imo. We have shown nothing but weakness the entire hand and our hand is way underrepped. We are representing a A4-TT as the huge majority of our range and villain has been lucky enough to catch a scare card (Q) that he can rep. i donno how aggro/good he is or if he is capable of vbetting QJ-AA for value on 3 streets, or worse, but to me, based on the profile i know of an avg 200nl reg this should be a snap call and I would expect to be ahead over 75% of the time.
05-17-2007, 10:00 AM
Silly String

Quote:

Originally Posted by sauce123

silly string- check out my thread on "two-way bets" and stuff like that for more of an explanation of why sometimes im (attemping to) making large bets on the end which have approx. 0 ev.

I read your theory post on Thin Value Betting when it was fresh. I understand your point, but I'm not sure the villain is conscious of that thought process. No draws avail. for villain to bet, so in order to call we have to assume we are ahead of 55-JJ who knows how to value bet very thin or a 3 barrel bluff. I think his line looks more like an 8 or AA.
If he is a bad LAG, I probably call this all day. Of course 20/18 isn't too far from being LAG. I definitely understand your point though, and the highest I've played regularly is 100NL, so you are the better judge of opponents at this level.
05-17-2007, 03:52 PM
sauce123

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silly String

Quote:

Originally Posted by sauce123

silly string- check out my thread on "two-way bets" and stuff like that for more of an explanation of why sometimes im (attemping to) making large bets on the end which have approx. 0 ev.

I read your theory post on Thin Value Betting when it was fresh. I understand your point, but I'm not sure the villain is conscious of that thought process. No draws avail. for villain to bet, so in order to call we have to assume we are ahead of 55-JJ who knows how to value bet very thin or a 3 barrel bluff. I think his line looks more like an 8 or AA.
If he is a bad LAG, I probably call this all day. Of course 20/18 isn't too far from being LAG. I definitely understand your point though, and the highest I've played regularly is 100NL, so you are the better judge of opponents at this level.

After reading ur last few posts I think I may have found the most important thread you will ever read:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-53729.htm
05-17-2007, 05:08 PM
Silly String

and I was gullible enought to think your post was going to be helpful
05-17-2007, 06:34 PM
sauce123

Silly String- Ok, I'm basically just gonna say ur being a nit. First of all, 20/18 is like std tag, with tag being anything from about 23 VPIP to 17 VPIP in general, so hes just about smack in the middle of std tag, with 18 pfr making him slightly more aggro than ur avg tag. Now, I run about 20/18 sometimes and when I am, a pretty standard raising range from the button is this: any suited connector, any suited one gapper 57 or higher, any pair, any two broadway cards, any ace and also some other random crap if the blinds play especially tight which may be the case with Da Goat idk.

On a 488 rainbow flop we are behind most his range and cant call a bet, but we do, with the intention of bluffing later and we get to the turn.

The turn is a queen, giving us TPGK which is COMPLETELY disguised and underrepped, is a scare card for our opponent to use and our opponent is capable/willing to make moves in position against a player he views to be weak. So Gin, basically.

We elect to check the turn and our opponent fires out 25 with a range which looks something like this:

value: AQ KQ QJ QT JJ TT 99 AA KK QQ 86 87 88 89 8T, A8

Bluffing/semibluffing: a percentage we will call X.

River: river is a blank ten which actually improves our range vs his probable value betting range. We check and he fires out a reasonably big bet of 60. We are representing exactly two hands here: a low to mid PP 22-99 (maybe A4s) or a weirdly slowplayed 8. Da Goat can tell us better from past history how likely he thinks it is that villain will put us on an 8, but my guess is he thinks we have an 8 less than 10% of the time from the way this hand was played. So note that our hand falls in the top 10% of the range of hands villain probably puts us on, and is still completely disguised. So villain value bets 60.

Thin Value that we beat: 55-JJ, JT, T9, AT, QJ, KQ (we tie obv),

Semi thin value we are behind: AQ, QT, KK, AA

Solid value we are behind: 44, 88, 87, 86, 89, 8T, A8, QQ, TT

We beat bluffs: again, we have to settle on a percentage X, that villain is bluffing and from this determine whether we can call.

Now I've laid out our line from a thinking, aggro 200nl villain's perspective and that it makes 90% of our range look like 22-99. Da Goat also thinks his image is slightly weak. As an aggressive villain do we think Da Goat can call 60 on the river with 22-99 now that two overs have fallen on the board? Probably not profitably. So does our 60 dollar river bet succeed often enough against this seemingly polarized range to have positive expectation? Most villains would thinks so and if I was villain I would probably triple barrel myself in this spot a reasonably high percentage of the time. I'll assign a bluffing percentage for our villain at between 25-75% as I think (and you can use Bayesian combos of hands to make this feel more concrete) soooo much of his range preflop is behind us and so few hands beat us and our line is so weak. So I think a call here by our KQ has solid positive expectation.

So Silly String, sorry for my last post, sometimes I abbreviate my answer to "I think villain is bluffing here a lot" because it seems apparent to me, but here is a basic thought process I go through every hand to determine bluffing frequencies and gauge the strength of my line against thinking players. Does this make sense?
05-17-2007, 06:36 PM
Genitruc

just call and cry if he flips over 10s full
05-17-2007, 06:45 PM
Numbr2intheWorld

the opponents whole line just looks likea three barrel bluff
05-17-2007, 06:47 PM
Da GOAT

very nice post sauce. i think it'll help alot of ppl.

just reread again. ''flop we cant call a bet'' coz best to raise it up. gotcha thanks
05-17-2007, 06:58 PM
Da GOAT

you see what you were saying sauce made alot of sense to me coz a hand stuck in my mind earlier and i thought for sure he was making a move so chanced my arm here. first time ever doing this. Me and Villian were going at it alot postflop. Was opp a thinking player, probably not tho. But opp did like splashing around big and small pots.

Disclaimer it happened earlier this week so reads probably aint perfect.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($203)
Hero ($277.25)
CO ($216)
Button ($200)
SB ($283)
BB ($393.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $10, 4 folds, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($23) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $27, Hero raises to $76, UTG raises to $125, Hero raises to $174
05-17-2007, 07:12 PM
zenbitz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

yFlop: ($23) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $27, Hero raises to $76, UTG raises to $125, Hero raises to $174

Yeti Theorem. But shouldn't you 4-bet shove? Only 50 for him to call or is HH screwed up.
05-17-2007, 07:34 PM
Genitruc

Quote:

Originally Posted by zenbitz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

yFlop: ($23) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $27, Hero raises to $76, UTG raises to $125, Hero raises to $174

Yeti Theorem. But shouldn't you 4-bet shove? Only 50 for him to call or is HH screwed up.

I hate to say it, but this doesn't look like yeti-theroem to me

It looks like a pocket pair contest and we're probably either ahead by 1 or behind by 1.
05-17-2007, 07:45 PM
sauce123

I guess what Im saying with my post is that as you play more and more you will pretty much "know" through trial and error that KQ is good enough in this spot to call just about any bet. The only problem is that very few of the "feel" players make a lot of money long term in poker because the human mind if generally unreliable and results oriented so even if at the time ur feel play is correct its important to go back later and analyze hand ranges, opp tendencies, and his perceived hand range for you to see if you can logically come up with the same conclusion that you made at the table. Cause usually when logic and feel come to the same conclusion you are doing something right.
05-18-2007, 04:06 AM
Da GOAT

thx sauce, yeah my example is nowhere perfect but i just wanted to illusrate a moment where opp is FOS when RRing flop. History between us meant alot in this hand.

but point taken guys
05-18-2007, 04:07 PM
Da GOAT

ok heres a similiar hand i just played earlier. Lets assume it fits the criteria to 4 bet a bluff. whats the best bet size since a shove is overkill. should we minbet and look like we want a call, make a pot committing type bet (but we are folding to his shove) or shove.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($415.85)
UTG ($174.45)
MP ($40.29)
CO ($331.54)
Hero ($197.70)
SB ($190.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
3 folds, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB raises to $29, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $XXXXX
05-18-2007, 05:15 PM
zenbitz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Genitruc

Quote:

Originally Posted by zenbitz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

yFlop: ($23) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $27, Hero raises to $76, UTG raises to $125, Hero raises to $174

Yeti Theorem. But shouldn't you 4-bet shove? Only 50 for him to call or is HH screwed up.

I hate to say it, but this doesn't look like yeti-theroem to me

It looks like a pocket pair contest and we're probably either ahead by 1 or behind by 1.

Yeti theorem can't be wrong! It's a THEOREM. And if villian has 44-99, will he fold to a shove?
05-22-2007, 11:11 AM
Silly String

Sauce, I appreciate your running through your though process. I meant to post this a couple days ago, but I left town/got busy etc. I realize your response takes time and you cannot do this for every HH posted, but the small stakers here really benefit from your experience/knowledge. I really appreciate your explaination. My guts just told me to fold given villains line, but you're right there is value in calling and especially as you move up levels vs. aggro TAGs.
Thanks
05-22-2007, 11:19 AM
sauce123

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silly String

Sauce, I appreciate your running through your though process. I meant to post this a couple days ago, but I left town/got busy etc. I realize your response takes time and you cannot do this for every HH posted, but the small stakers here really benefit from your experience/knowledge. I really appreciate your explaination. My guts just told me to fold given villains line, but you're right there is value in calling and especially as you move up levels vs. aggro TAGs.
Thanks

np man, helps my game too. thanks for reading.
05-23-2007, 06:02 PM
Dislexsik

Quote:

Originally Posted by Genitruc

Quote:

Originally Posted by zenbitz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

yFlop: ($23) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $27, Hero raises to $76, UTG raises to $125, Hero raises to $174

Yeti Theorem. But shouldn't you 4-bet shove? Only 50 for him to call or is HH screwed up.

I hate to say it, but this doesn't look like yeti-theroem to me

It looks like a pocket pair contest and we're probably either ahead by 1 or behind by 1.

Havent been on for a long time, so i guess thats why i dont know what yeti theorem is...
05-23-2007, 06:11 PM
|~|ypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dislexsik

Havent been on for a long time, so i guess thats why i dont know what yeti theorem is...

List of Theorems:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=55171