sets on three flush or three straight boards

i honestly do not know what to say. i play against generally loose passive opponents who are sometimes overaggro with marginal holdings who will call down or felt two pair, sets, or a draw on these flops, yet i am a fucking gigantic loser on them over around the last 100k hands when i have top or second set and get action in a raised pot, even when it was HU to the flop.

just had this hand

few limpers, i raise 8 blinds in BB with AA, one caller.

flop is AKT hearts, i bet 3/4 pot, he pushes, im getting like 1.7:1 to call.

im kinda lost, i see him doing this with some stuff like KK, TT, AK, AT, KT QhT, JhT, JhK, JhA, QhA, QhK at least some of the time. so i gotta call with those odds. but every fucking time i was outflopped, and i dont fill up. oh wait, sorry, i filled up once in the last ten times. my bad.

maybe this is BBV stuff, but im curious as to your experiences with these kinda hands. im wondering how much it can be variance since it's been happening over a rather large sample. but then again, i personally believe it's possible that i have run worse than the vast majority of players who have played <4 tables close to 300k hands. i just haven't stopped playing. you dont hear about the ones who stopped playing.

now i sound like Matusow.

yes, i call the push here EVERYTIME. you still have 7 outs in a redraw. thats roughly 14% on the next card, alone, and 10 outs and 20% on the river card. the fact that "i never fill up" is silly. you will at some point; the math wont allow it to stay that unbalanced.

if you fold AA to a straight or flushy board, WHEN YOU HIT YOUR SET, i dont know what you will follow through with. maybe you have to flop quads? would i call this w/ 88 on a 89T all hearts flop? dont know, but top possible set (not merely top set) at a loose table? yes, everytime.

c'mon. you have enough experience to know better than this. not trying to be rude...only direct.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Chopper

yes, i call the push here EVERYTIME. you still have 7 outs in a redraw. thats roughly 14% on the next card, alone, and 10 outs and 20% on the river card. the fact that "i never fill up" is silly. you will at some point; the math wont allow it to stay that unbalanced.

if you fold AA to a straight or flushy board, WHEN YOU HIT YOUR SET, i dont know what you will follow through with. maybe you have to flop quads?

c'mon. you have enough experience to know better than this. not trying to be rude...only direct.

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no worries, im a rather rude and direct person. the little that i post on this board, i actually tone it down since i'd likely be ostracized or banned if i acted similarly to how i do on the main board i visit.

and yea, your logic is my logic. however, over a large sample i have been seeming to run really bad in these circumstances, and that has provoked me to seek wisdom of others' experiences in similar circumstances.

I don't think I've ever folded a set on the flop. There are some rare situations when you're up against a nit making a huge raise where you might be able to lay one down, but if you never fold them you'll be fine. On 3-flush or 3-straight boards, just play sets as fast as possible. Bet close to pot, push over raises, etc. If you're ahead they'll think you're drawing and call with worse, if you're behind you have outs.

Don't fold a set on a flop 100bb deep, and probably not even 300bb deep. Just know that and feel coolered when you're beat.

never folding a set on the flop is my sentiment, too. in fact, in a limit game, if i flop a set...

i'm going down swinging at low stakes. trying to get as much money in the pot, giving odds all the way, and letting those donkeys chase. again, you will boat up some of the time, and then watch the sparks fly (in limit) when you are taking raises and 3bets off the "drawing dead." :)