Combo draw hand...

To become less predictable, I have been trying to play my combo draws the same way I would play a set. Problem is, I continue to run into sets when I do this. I would really like some input on the hand below. I feel there is a strong chance that villian (no reads) has a set here. Even if I think he does have a set, I shouldn't fold this, should I?

Is this how I should play almost all of my combo draws?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($162.55)
Hero ($199)
SB ($398.70)
BB ($82.70)
UTG ($261.45)
UTG+1 ($471.95)
MP1 ($125.15)
MP2 ($306.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, MP1 calls $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: ($11) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $11, CO calls $11, Hero raises to $40, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to $123.15, CO folds, Hero ?????

Its a decent flop for you, but the 3 bet on th flop is either 89 or 4's, or Axh - most probably a set of 4's. This is an easy fold IMO you are drawing thin to all these hands.

Don't go broke in an unraised pot.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh 7h 419 42.32 571 57.68 0 0.00 0.423
8s 9d 571 57.68 419 42.32 0 0.00 0.577

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh 7h 280 28.28 710 71.72 0 0.00 0.283
Ah 5h 710 71.72 280 28.28 0 0.00 0.717

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh 7h 335 33.84 655 66.16 0 0.00 0.338
4s 4c 655 66.16 335 33.84 0 0.00 0.662

89 is your best hope but I feel this is 4's mostly. The pot is 174 and you need around 80 to call giving you odds of around 0.45. 89 is a close call, but i think if your read is a set (and I think your right) then I would be folding this.

raise or fold preflop. I would say fold outright, but you do have the button.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

The pot is 174 and you need around 80 to call giving you odds of around 0.45. 89 is a close call, but i think if your read is a set (and I think your right) then I would be folding this.

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Check your math here. He is getting over 2:1 on his call. The dead money makes this a call even if villain has a set.

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

The pot is 174 and you need around 80 to call giving you odds of around 0.45. 89 is a close call, but i think if your read is a set (and I think your right) then I would be folding this.

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Check your math here. He is getting over 2:1 on his call. The dead money makes this a call even if villain has a set.

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Please explain.. my poker math isn't great I know..I didn't add the CO call on the flop so the pot is 185. But still I don't understand how that makes it a 2:1 shot?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

Please explain.. my poker math isn't great I know..I didn't add the CO call on the flop so the pot is 185. But still I don't understand how that makes it a 2:1 shot?

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185:83 is approximately 2.2:1

He wins the pot at least 1 time out of every 3 total times we see both a turn and river card therefore to break even on this call he would only need to call 1/2 of the pot, or he would need to win $2 for every $1 he calls with. 2 times out of 3 he calls 83 and loses it which is -$166. 1 time out of the 3 he calls 83 and wins an extra $190. Therefore, every time he makes this call he should expect to make $8 on average.

It's early and Im not sure if I calculated correctly but that is the jist of it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

The pot is 174 and you need around 80 to call giving you odds of around 0.45. 89 is a close call, but i think if your read is a set (and I think your right) then I would be folding this.

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Check your math here. He is getting over 2:1 on his call. The dead money makes this a call even if villain has a set.

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Please explain.. my poker math isn't great I know..I didn't add the CO call on the flop so the pot is 185. But still I don't understand how that makes it a 2:1 shot?

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Well, explaining math on internet is hard but i'll give it a shot.


His pot odds are 185:83. If you simplify that you get a little over 2.2 : 1 (185/83 = 2.2). For every time he wins the pot he can afford to lose it 2.2 times.

And then we have his equity vs. a set.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jh 7h 335 33.84 655 66.16 0 0.00 0.338
4s 4c 655 66.16 335 33.84 0 0.00 0.662

It's the same thing here. His odds to win are 0.662 : 0.338. Simplify that and you get 1.95 : 1 (0.662/0.338 = 1.95).

If he would get 1.95:1 on his money he would break even by calling. Now his pot odds are greater than that.

The pot is about $174 and hero is faced with about an $83 call. So her needs 83/(83+174) = 0.32 or 32% chance of winning to make this call.

So its a call, even against a set.

Thankyou, I understand now!

So if I add his call to the pot also.. that gives me 83/(185+83)= 0.31. Which is less than the EV vs 4's so it makes it a call!

On a further note could someone explain how to calculate the actual $ that we win on average every time we make this call.

I'll have a stab..

We lose 2 out of three times at a cost of -$83
We win once gaining an extra $185

(-83 x 2)+185 =19... 19/3=6.333

So on average we win $6.33?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

(-83 x 2)+185 =19... 19/3=6.333

So on average we win $6.33?

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you got it