what to do?

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02-15-2007, 01:25 PM
Beck

what to do?

no real reads, seen 12 hands with villian, 3 hands earlier he raised 3xBB, I re-raised 9xBB with QQ and he folded

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($54.30)
SB ($13.35)
BB ($50.45)
UTG ($34.85)
UTG+1 ($36.75)
MP1 ($48.35)
MP2 ($56.20)
MP3 ($29.70)
CO ($52.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, MP1 calls $2, CO folds.

Flop: ($6.25) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $4, MP1 raises to $9, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($24.25) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 bets $9.5, Hero raises to $20, MP1 raises to $36.85, Hero ?

What do you think, does he have AK, QQ, JJ, QK, QJ or the dreaded AT?
02-15-2007, 02:03 PM
zook

Incredibly easy call. Even if he has the dreaded AT, the only hand you aren't way ahead of, you're only a 3.5:1 dog and you're getting 5:1 pot odds.
02-15-2007, 02:27 PM
bigslikk

9T diamonds would also blow.

Yeah even if he has a straight with a diamond draw, you are still priced in. You are slightly over 1 in 5 to win and you're gettin $5 for each $1 that you bet. So mathematically it's slightly profitable to call. However, throw in the fact that he could have 2 pair / smaller set / or combo draw you're avg. chances of winning go up. Also, there may be impied odds for you on the river, giving you more than 5 to 1 on your money.

Question is, how much do you pay on the river if you miss? If you completely shutdown if no paired board, then calling the turn might just hand money over to a lower set / two-pair. If you pay a lot for the showdown, then you're giving villain reverse implied odds. Depending on what you'd do on the river matters in terms of how profitable it would be to call.

Assuming you pay a modest bet on the river if you miss (but don't stack off) and that you can squeeze more money out on the river if you boat up, I'd say calling would be +EV. Yeah call it.
02-15-2007, 02:37 PM
zook

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigslikk

Question is, how much do you pay on the river if you miss?

Villain is all-in.