Who Likes Going to War?

I've been experiencing cooler-city over the past few days and it's gotten me thinking about "big folds".

Here are 2 situations that I think are somewhat marginal monsters.

1)

You are on the button. UTG and CO limp. You limp as well with 5h6h. SB completes.

Flop is Ah3h9h. Mayhem ensues.


2)

You are on the button again. Folded to you. You make it 3.5bb's with 55.

The SB, a standard aware tagg (think 19/16/2 ish) makes it13bb's to go. You call.

Flop is AQ5 rainbow. You both go bananas.

Assuming both situations occur when you're only 100bb's deep, in which situation do you prefer stacking off and why?

Both look like grit your teeth situations.

In example 1, you can easily be beat by limpers, but it could also be any Kh who has a 15% chance to suxzor on you. I think I like a fold here better though.

In example 2, I felt this all the time when less than 150BB deep. He could have AK here a lot. I'm definitely reloading before the cards are flipped up though.

You are also in an unraised pot in hand #1, where in hand #2 stacking off is much easier with a pre-flop 3bet.

I prefer stacking off with a set since I can improve to a boat.

1. You can raise this sometimes on the button, since you didn't the line never go broke in limped pot comes to my mind. Hence once your opponent shows strength you can utilize pot control if its still possible.

2. We go broke here every day IMO. you can't call to hit your set and then not go broke in reraised pot. AA / QQ so be it. AK / AQ ship it-

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Originally Posted by Warpe

I prefer stacking off with a set since I can improve to a boat.

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Likely the villain will too in this example though.

You can't fold either of these, by the time you realize u may be beat your priced in.

What sucks is that in both cases, IF you are behind you are drawing near dead.
The question in the first hand is whether or not you can save 1/2 a stack or so if it becomes clear you are behind a better flush. Not also vs. multiple opponents your chance of losing increases (assuming none of them are drawing dead). Also, if you can get to a turn (or even a river) without being totally committed (ha!) at least you can fold when a 4th heart hits and/or board pairs.

The second one - at least you only have to beat 1 guy, and the pot is already too big to fold. 19/16 implies that he's re-raising more than just AA-QQ. I think given any action beyond a c-bet or call, you can put him squarely on AA/AQ/QQ maybe AK (but he must know that he's only beating KK and JJ here!) . statisticaly, if rr preflop those 3 hands with the same frequency, then you are behind 4/7ths of the time. Call it half if sometimes he bluffs or has AK. Which means it's a pretty straight forward a/i given the money already in the pot by the time you narrow his holdings to 2p+.

I think I'd much rather go broke in hand 2 (with the set) than hand 1.

Hand 1 depends a lot on what is meant by "mayhem ensues". If in hand 1 you are facing a strong lead out bet by SB, a strong raise by UTG and a threebet by CO, all before it gets around to you. I think we can find a fold here. Best case scenario, is that you are ahead, but against the Kh and another player with a set. So you have a TON of outs against you, even when you are ahead.

Hand 2: I think we need to stack off here. We called to flop our set, and we flopped it. I pay off set over set all day. Especially on an A high flop.

hand one is foldable since its a limped pot (meaning u aren't going against sets very much)

I'm not sure I could get away from either of them, but I prefer stacking off in case 1. There are enough hands that will be going bananas (sets, A with Kh etc) trying to protect their hand that I'm happy getting my stack in. A flopped flush is pretty rare, and for 100BBs I think flopped flush-over-flush is so rare as to not really think about it.

As for case 2, yeah, you're probably behind, but if he'll stack off with AQ then, as others have said, by the time you figure he has a strong holding you're committed.

I just realized that in hand 2 you are getting <10:1 implied odds preflop.
You had better play the flop perfectly for this call to be good. That might mean finding a fold sometimes (can't say if this is or is not one of those times)

fwiw neither were actual hands...

I figured the standard reply would be "I can fold hand 1, but not hand 2"

A la Johnny_Fish, heh ...Ranges off the top of my head, but gives an idea.

1)
Board: Ah 3h 9h
Dead:

Hand 0: 65.974% 65.97% 00.00% 4572 0.00 { 6h5h }
Hand 1: 34.026% 34.03% 00.00% 2358 0.00 { 99, 33, AsKh }

2)
Hand 0: 79.600% 79.60% 00.00% 35462 0.00 { 5c5h }
Hand 1: 20.400% 20.40% 00.00% 9088 0.00 { QQ+, AJs+, AJo+ }

I didnt even put in high flushes in hand one, which would bring your chances of winning <60%.

So I go with hand 2, by far. Don't get me wrong I stack off on both but if I had to choose..

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Originally Posted by Renton

hand one is foldable since its a limped pot (meaning u aren't going against sets very much)

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not totally sure i agree with this.
I think 1 over 2 but really neither.
In 1 there are enough possibilities for you to be playing slowplayed big pairs limped preflop and sets but also overflushes
In 2 we've been told opp likes their hand preflop so why are we stacking off with bottom set? The only hand that may go mad is AQ if they expect us to have AK.
The more i look at it the more i think 1.

As i said you can't fold either because by the time the action gets to the point where you think he may have you beat you're already committed.

As a matter of fact if you narrow down opps range in hand 2 strictly to AA QQ or AQ you still have to call. Pokerstove says you actually have something like 40% equtiy here.

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

As i said you can't fold either because by the time the action gets to the point where you think he may have you beat you're already committed.

As a matter of fact if you narrow down opps range in hand 2 strictly to AA QQ or AQ you still have to call. Pokerstove says you actually have something like 40% equtiy here.

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is AQ really reraising preflop here? I keep wanting to see it, but dont see it that much in these games.

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Originally Posted by Alexos

A la Johnny_Fish, heh ...Ranges off the top of my head, but gives an idea.

1)
Board: Ah 3h 9h
Dead:

Hand 0: 65.974% 65.97% 00.00% 4572 0.00 { 6h5h }
Hand 1: 34.026% 34.03% 00.00% 2358 0.00 { 99, 33, AsKh }

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This range is useless, because it's a limped pot. XhXh, and Kh[AKQJT9] all possible, not to mention A9/A3 even 93o with blinds in.

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2)
Hand 0: 79.600% 79.60% 00.00% 35462 0.00 { 5c5h }
Hand 1: 20.400% 20.40% 00.00% 9088 0.00 { QQ+, AJs+, AJo+ }

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I don't think AJ/AK are really in the mix after "he goes bananas".

I think hand #2 is way easier to fold than hand #1. Not saying I could make these folds, just saying...

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Originally Posted by Miffed22001

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

As i said you can't fold either because by the time the action gets to the point where you think he may have you beat you're already committed.

As a matter of fact if you narrow down opps range in hand 2 strictly to AA QQ or AQ you still have to call. Pokerstove says you actually have something like 40% equtiy here.

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is AQ really reraising preflop here? I keep wanting to see it, but dont see it that much in these games.

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Really?

I don't even consider myself _that_ agressive, but facing a button raise I am rarely calling AQ/AK from the blinds. I am definitely three-betting them, if I'm gonna play the hand.

This, ofcourse, depends on the button and how much they have been raising my blinds.

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

I think hand #2 is way easier to fold than hand #1. Not saying I could make these folds, just saying...

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This is way backwards.

Hand 1 is difficult, but if you're clearly against a range like set or bigger flush you got to get away cheap with a weak fold in a nothing pot. You never should put your stack behind you hand in a nothing pot unless you're pretty darn sure you're getting the best of it.

If you're going to bet the farm here, consider looking for a clean turn card.

In hand 2, our opponent declared war pre-flop. Once we call the over-bet we need to consider how we're going to win without a set (otherwise we must fold!) We're sure as hell not folding a set here! By the time he bets the flop (which means he still has 2 cards and might even discount the chances of AA), too much dead money is in the pot.

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Originally Posted by zenbitz

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Originally Posted by Alexos

A la Johnny_Fish, heh ...Ranges off the top of my head, but gives an idea.

1)
Board: Ah 3h 9h
Dead:

Hand 0: 65.974% 65.97% 00.00% 4572 0.00 { 6h5h }
Hand 1: 34.026% 34.03% 00.00% 2358 0.00 { 99, 33, AsKh }

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This range is useless, because it's a limped pot. XhXh, and Kh[AKQJT9] all possible, not to mention A9/A3 even 93o with blinds in.

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2)
Hand 0: 79.600% 79.60% 00.00% 35462 0.00 { 5c5h }
Hand 1: 20.400% 20.40% 00.00% 9088 0.00 { QQ+, AJs+, AJo+ }

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I don't think AJ/AK are really in the mix after "he goes bananas".

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mmm okay the range in hand 1 could be expanded, wtv...

Point is hand #2 is wayy stronger than hand #1 and its not close IMO.