Another bluff by me (What a surprise)

Opp is 29/24, threebetting very light betting the flop hard and giving up on the turn. However, he seems solid, capable of making a laydown i.e. laying down AK preflop to a push, something you don't expect from a light three bettor.
Should I just have pushed the turn, or bet less to put a bigger bet on the river? This guy has never check bombed a turn. But at least it looks like by my betting size that it's never a bluff, even though it is.

POKERSTARS GAME #8101250851: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/24 - 15:38:36 (ET)
Table 'Hildburg' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Slyou ($96.50 in chips)
Seat 2: redgrape ($188.75 in chips)
Seat 3: JP917 ($87.10 in chips)
Seat 4: Michaja2006 ($77.40 in chips)
Seat 6: Golden_sun ($166.45 in chips)
Jadad will be allowed to play after the button
Golden_sun: posts small blind $0.50
Slyou: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [9s 7s]
redgrape: raises $3 to $4
JP917: folds
Michaja2006: folds
Golden_sun: raises $10 to $14
Slyou: folds
Michaja2006 is sitting out
redgrape: calls $10
*** FLOP *** [Kd Js Th]
Golden_sun: bets $19
redgrape: calls $19
*** TURN *** [Kd Js Th] [4s]
Golden_sun: checks
redgrape: bets $45
Golden_sun: calls $45
*** RIVER *** [Kd Js Th 4s] [2d]
Golden_sun: checks
redgrape: bets $110.75 and is all-in

If you think he's strong (AK+) then you're making a very dangerous play. The big problem here is that you'd typically raise the flop with set/2pair. Therefore your likely hands are AQ/Q9 or garbage, but unlikely a set. A further problem though is that if he thinks you're decent, he knows you're unlikely to peel a flop with these hands since the reverse-implied odds aren't that great (AQs is prob the obvious exception).

If, however, he's ever seen you slowplay a set on a scary board then it's fine. But I'd doubt he has ;) so he's likely to look you up with AK and either pay off your straight or call your bluff.

All that being said, His hand is KQ/QQ/QJ/Q10 a huge percentage of the time when he takes this line imo so NH since he's very hard-pressed to call. The other times it's AA/AK and he's much less likely to fold, but spewing is fun against regs so no big deal.

I don't like it. The river is a blank. If he likes his hand enough to call your turn bet do you think he's going to fold to a 2/3 PSB push on the river often enough to make this profitable? The only hands I think you're getting a fold from are missed draws (JQ, QQ, etc.). How has he played his draws previously?

This might be the worst flop to try this on.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dsaxton

This might be the worst flop to try this on.

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My thoughts exactly. I understand he's 3-betting light but most people 3-bet with decent cards most of the time. There's a great chance he hit that flop REALLY hard...

Once he calls you on the turn he's probably not folding that river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye

I don't like it. The river is a blank. If he likes his hand enough to call your turn bet do you think he's going to fold to a 2/3 PSB push on the river often enough to make this profitable? The only hands I think you're getting a fold from are missed draws (JQ, QQ, etc.). How has he played his draws previously?

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I he hasn't showndown a draw in this situation. Do you think it would've been better if I pushed the turn instead? The truth is a hand that wanted to take it all the way pretty much has to push the turn after he checks. But he doesn't, he just calls. Which makes me think he's looking up my turn bet as this is the line i have been taking versus all his threebets.

Your right dsaxton, this board really does suck for this.

fold the flop!

if he calls turn i dont think hes folding riv